Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
854 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

.UPDATE...At 1530Z this morning, one area of showers covers
northeast Nevada with the next surge streaming northward over Nye
County and west central Nevada. A region of stability exists
between these two areas, but will not last too long as surface
heating will destabilize the air mass fairly quickly. The lift is
courtesy of short wave energy moving north over Nevada today, and
interacting with an air mass that has precipitable water near an
inch. Combined with shear, most notably over the northeastern
Nevada corner later this afternoon for locally strong storms,
maybe a severe storm.  Boosted PoP values for much of the area
this afternoon with the strongest storms generating brief heavy
rain. Storms will be moving, so moderate to heavy rain will not
stay at any given spot for too long. 88

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 153 AM /

SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms today as a wiggle in the
upper atmosphere moves across Nevada from the south. Strong
thunderstorms with brief heavy rain and gusty winds may occur
this afternoon. Friday will be drier with breezy conditions
developing by afternoon. The weekend looks much cooler.

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday.

Same situation as models have been predicting the last few days.
Large upper high over the southwest with closed upper low off the
SoCal coast. These are creating a southwest tight flow into the
Great Basin with a weak tropical connection from the east-central
Pacific and Gulf of California. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
still occurring over much of central and northern Nevada even in
the middle of the night.

Moisture flow will continue at mid and high levels through
Thursday, then taper off as the short wave assisting it moves
northeast out of the state. Li's and CAPEs sufficient to drive
isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mixed wet and dry since
surface dewpoints are in the 40s generally, through tonight.

On Friday, the closed low approaches the coast and begins driving
oceanic inversion air into the Basin along with
downsloping/subsiding winds. Some isolated storms and showers are
possible but should be confined to the northern sections along the
Idaho/Oregon borders.

Cooler today and Friday with cloud cover and passage of short
wave.

LONG TERM...Friday night through next Wednesday. Overall, no
significant impacts expected. High confidence that the period is
mostly dry and quiet.

On Saturday, a frontal boundary slowly pushes east towards the
UT/NV border as the upper level low lifts northeast into Oregon.
Confidence continues to run moderate that strong winds and dry
conditions across portions of White Pine and northeast Nye
counties, ahead of the frontal boundary. There remains slight
differences in position of the upper level low in Oregon which
impacts the position/orientation of the polar front jet across the
area..which them impacts where and how strong the surface winds
are. Nothing significant but something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, afternoon cloud cover and fall like conditions expected
in Humboldt and northern Elko counties, closer to the upper level
low. A few showers remain possible near the UT/NV border. With
500mb heights dropping to the 579 to 582dm levels, anticipate
high temperatures only in the 70s and 80s. Clear skies are in
store for the overnight with lows in the 40s - some of the cooler
locales may even see readings in the 30s.

Sunday through next Wednesday. Upper level low fills as it lifts
to northern ID by Sunday evening; therefore the upper level flow
turns more westerly. Thereafter, the overall flow aloft is nearly
zonal on Monday with 500mb heights around the 582-585dm range. On
Tuesday and next Wednesday, signs point to the 500mb high over
western TX expanding westward towards the SW US as 500mb trof
becomes established well of the Pacific NW coastline. Plenty of
uncertainty in regards to the evolution of the 500mb trof or low
and associated frontal boundary but meaningless to conditions
across the area. The ensemble mean of each model still keeps the
storm track well to the north of the area. Overall the 500mb
highs return to near or slightly above average of for early
August, resulting high temperatures back into the 90s on both
days.

AVIATION...Low confidence forecast in regards to timing of early
morning convection, and re-development in the afternoon
hours...expect amendments. Gusty winds are likely with any of
these thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Note: KBAM AMD NOT SKED due to missing clouds/cigs.

FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning through 9 pm PDT Thursday for
zones 454, 467, 468, and 469 for isolated to scattered mixed
wet/dry thunderstorms.

The likelihood of wetting rains will vary strongly from storm to
storm, with some actually producing greater than 1/10 inch. The
best chances for them will be over zones 454 and 469. However,
there is a good chance for all storms, even "wet" ones, to produce
lighting outside the main rain shaft, which could cause new fires.

Erratic outflow winds are likely to be widespread, even in non-
showers and non-storms, such as virga buildups.

Thursday night, storms move north and begin to weaken. On Friday,
expecting only isolated showers and perhaps a strike or two along
the Idaho border.

Drier Friday with gusty winds especially over zones 455 and 457.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Central Lander
and Eureka Counties-Central and Western Humboldt County-Eastern
Humboldt County and Northwestern Elko County-Southwestern and
Central Elko County.

&&

98/85/85/98

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