Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
202 PM PDT Thu Jun 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving through Nevada will
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Some of these
storms are expected to be strong across parts of Elko County
through this evening and could include some hail. Drier air will
move in on Friday, reducing the coverage of thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday. The morning started out
with limited instability quelled by the overnight thunderstorm
activity and cool air stabilization of the lower levels. There was
a line of deformation stretching/moving east across northern
Nevada this morning that convection fired off of. The strongest
cells thus far have been in northern Elko County. Convection
should ramp up by late this afternoon. The convective temperature
was reached at noon. The short term models are in good agreement.

This evening. A frontal zone associated with a shortwave trough
moving through the state will continue to produce some strong
thunderstorms over Elko County. Small hail is possible along the
northern portion of the frontal boundary.

Midnight tonight through Friday evening. The positive- tilt
shortwave axis will be over the eastern part of the state and
showers will begin diminishing. Convection will fire up again
Friday afternoon, this time from Austin to Carlin and eastward.
High temperatures will be in the 80s. Low temperatures will range
from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.

Midnight Friday through Saturday evening. The current low pressure
wave will move east well past the 4-corners area of the country.
There is another disturbance that will infiltrate the LKN CWFA,
providing impetus for more convection, this time south of highway
50s in central Nevada. High temperatures will be in the 80s. Low
temperatures will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through next Thursday.

General troffiness continues over the Great Basin at the start of
the long term period. This will provide for some afternoon and
evening convection, though shortwaves look to be more focused in
central Nevada, so this is where the greater chances are for
thunderstorms on Sunday. A frontal boundary on Monday will
generate more afternoon thunderstorms from Elko county
southwestward through northern Nye county.

On Tuesday and Wednesday Nevada will be sandwiched in between a
broad ridge in the Pacific and a longwave trof trying to dig into
the central U.S. This will place Nevada in a dry northwest flow,
which could last through the week, and a dry period is probable.
Gradients tighten in this pattern, however, and breezy afternoon
conditions would be likely from Tuesday through Thursday.

Temperatures remain above normal Monday, with most valleys well
into the 80's, with lower 90's in the warmest spots. Lows will be
in the 40's and 50's. Temperatures will cool just a bit, closer to
normal, on Tuesday through Thursday in the northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR at all terminals next 24 hours. Scattered
thunderstorms will continue to develop the remainder of this
afternoon and evening in both northern and central Nevada. The
main threat with the stronger storms will be gusty downdraft winds
but hail will also be possible. Some thunderstorms or showers can
persist into the evening hours. Strong gusty winds will occur
during the afternoon into evening hours in central NV impacting
KELY and KTPH. Another possibility that can occur is outflow winds
can kick up dust and cause local reductions to visibility.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm temperatures will continue. A low pressure
system will bring some strong thunderstorms to the Great Basin
region this evening. Northern Elko County could see some of the
strongest storms with rain, gusty winds and possibly hail.
Showers and thunderstorms will be mainly east of a line between
Austin and Carlin on Friday, then mainly south of U.S. 50 in
central Nevada on Saturday as another weak low pressure area moves
in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Flooding continues on the Humboldt River and minor
flooding is occurring each evening along Lamoille Creek. There is
still a lot of snow at high elevations and some of the smaller
creeks and rivers are now responding to the recent run of 80
degree temperatures. The Humboldt River is still cresting at
Battle Mountain. The Humboldt River at Comus is experiencing high
flows that are approaching 2017 river levels. NDOT is considering
closing Reinhart Street due to the sustained high levels affecting
the road foundation.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

92/90/90/92

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