Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
149 AM PDT Tue Sep 10 2019

.SYNOPSIS...More normal autumn weather on the way with cool to
warm days and cool nights. A little unsettled at times with some
light showers in northern Nevada mainly. Some snow may fall on
mountains over about 8500 feet.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday.

A few cold air showers forming over northeast Nevada this morning
trying to expand into northwest Nevada, too. These are in the cold
part of the trough crossing the Great Basin at this time. The
sharp upper trough is well shown in the upper lever water vapor
imagery.

Models agree well on bringing this trough across the region
through the short terms. Best chances for shower and thunderstorms
are today and tonight expanding to most of the forecast area.
Showers will continue through most of the night tonight, then a
few showers linger tomorrow over northeast Nevada. Precip
situation is this: mostly high pops with low qpf amounts. The cold
air coming with the trough will drop snow levels over much of the
region to below 9000 feet. A light dusting of snow is possible by
Wednesday over mountains higher than about 8,500 feet.

High temps drop to below normal today...generally in the 60s and
70s. Wednesday in the upper 50s to mid 70s. Lows tonight in the
mid 30s to mid 40s, with some of the more notorious spots in the
20s.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through next Monday. All models are
showing a short wave ridge in the flow across northern and central
Nevada Wednesday night into Thursday. With clearing skies and
drier air in place, overnight lows will be in the 30s to perhaps
the low 40s. Some of the colder locales like northern Elko county
will probably see the 20s for Thursday morning. By Thursday
afternoon, many areas will see mostly sunny skies with afternoon
highs rising into the mid to upper 70s with generally light winds.

For Thursday night and Friday, a nearly west to east flow will
develop across the forecast area as an upper level low pushes into
the Pacific Northwest. Skies will remain mostly clear during the
evening and overnight with quiet weather. Lows during this time
will be in the 30s and 40s. By Friday, moisture and energy from
the upper low is anticipated to move mainly east across the border
with Canada. Afternoon highs across the region will improve to
the low to mid 80s over many areas. Winds are expected to be
light.

Confidence in the pattern decreases for the upcoming weekend. It
does appear Saturday will remain on the quiet side with trough
energy staying north. Highs on Saturday will once again be in the
low to mid 80s, with some locations seeing the upper 80s. There
could be some afternoon breezes but speeds will be below 25 mph.
Sunday and Monday bring some model disagreement though ensembles
are showing general troughiness during the latter portions of the
weekend. Kept pops in the isolated category with highs generally
in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke and haze from the wildfires in California will
continue but are not expected to drop vis below 10 miles at any
TAF sites. Showers are possible in the afternoon in the vicinity
of KWMC, KBAM and KEKO but VFR cigs and vis will remain VFR.

Note: KBAM AMD NOT SKED due to missing clouds/cigs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Cool and wet today and tonight over most of the
region. Generally low amounts of rain, just widespread light
showers. Wettest in the far north along the Idaho-Oregon border. A
little less wet Wednesday with showers confined mostly to
northeast Nevada. Highs will be below normal for the season, and
low chilly this week. A dusting of snow will occur above about
8500 feet.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

98/90/90/98

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
1123 AM PDT Tue Sep 10 2019

NVZ031-101915-
Northern Elko County NV-
1123 AM PDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1120 AM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of developing
thunderstorms stretching from southwest of Charleston to the Idaho
border between Owyhee and Jackpot. These storms are moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Charleston, Jarbidge and Wild Horse Reservoir.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4146 11561 4158 11593 4200 11592 4200 11475
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 240DEG 49KT 4159 11570

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
1253 PM PDT Tue Sep 10 2019

NVZ031-102045-
Northern Elko County NV-
1253 PM PDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM PDT...

At 1252 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Contact, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Elko
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4147 11473 4157 11492 4188 11465 4176 11426
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 207DEG 17KT 4159 11479

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