River Flood Warning 16, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
135 AM PDT Wed May 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and wet most of the week with showers and
isolated thunderstorms each day, into the evenings. Things may
warm up a bit early next week. Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday.

Running out of ways to say "cool and rainy". Overall pattern of a
trough over western North American holds, with embedded short
waves and weak transient short ridges moving through the Great
Basin.

Recent rains over north central and northeast Nevada, and also
parts of central and northwest Nevada have saturated soils in
many, many basins. Several streams are either climbing above
actions stage or already in flood stage. Additional rains in the
next two days won't help.

Keeping an eye on burn scars as some of the storms or heavier
showers produce high rain rates. Radar estimated rates of 1-2
inches per hour for short bursts are common. Fortunately, the
cells move rather quickly which limits total rainfall amounts in a
given location.

Snow levels are rising with the position of closed lows and short
waves. Any significant snow are typically confined to higher
ranges. Still, it's going to be a long snowmelt spring and early
summer.

Temps will slowly warm up above the cooler than normal values
we've "enjoyed" the last, oh, several decades, it seems...

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Wednesday.

Unsettled and wet weather looks to continue through the rest of
the week and even into next week. The pattern looks to maintain a
trough over the region for the foreseeable feature. This will
maintain a moist airmass and general instability across NV. This
should lead to showers with a few thunderstorms across the silver
state each afternoon. There is a little silver lining in the
wetness in that the temperatures should gradually climb. The
temperatures should climb into the 70s mid week and into the 80s
for next week. This may make the cold rain that we are
experiencing a bit more bearable but alas the sogginess and mud
will remain.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms will continue across NV
impacting all terminals. The showers can be heavier at times
restricting visibility to MVFR and possibly lower if mist
develops. The showers will be accompanied by low clouds that may
cause brief MVFR conditions. The lower clouds with showers will
cause mountain obscuration throughout the region. Thunderstorms
are expected mainly during the daytime but a few nocturnal storms
can occur. The thunderstorms may also be embedded in a field of
showers making them less distinct features.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Have run out of ways to say cool and wet.
Widespread showers, some on the heavy side, with isolated
thunderstorms will dominate afternoons and evenings in the fire
district. Best chances for heaviest showers will be in northern
Nevada but isolated heavy showers will still occur in central and
eastern Nevada. Keeping an eye on burn scars with some of the
showers producing very high rain rates. Note that some off-
pavement roads and paths are going to be muddy and possibly
impassable.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Sites above action or flood stage are becoming
cumbersome to list. The Humboldt River is responding to local
inflows from heavy rains, and from tribs which are also responding
to heavy runoff from canyon confinements. Most lower to mid-slope
snow melt is likely over, but higher ridges will still get snows
this week. Parts of central Nevada will get localized heavier
showers which will contribute to local flooding or ponding, but
the best chances for heavier rain will be in north central and
northeast Nevada which does not need more rain at this point.
Also, keeping an eye on burn scars as some of the showers will
have brief, albeit high rain rates.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

98/99/99/98