Frost Advisory 2, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
108 AM PDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry today with breezy afternoon winds. A
mainly dry cold front will move across Nevada on Thursday,
bringing breezy to windy conditions and the start of a cooling
trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday

A warm, dry, and mainly cloud free day is in store for northern
and central Nevada today, with a slight warming of temperatures.
A trof will be moving into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon,
and this will start to tighten the gradients some, allowing for a
breezy afternoon. A mainly dry cold front will move through Nevada
on Thursday, though there may be an isolated late afternoon
thunderstorm in the vicinity of Great Basin National Park. West
winds will strengthen ahead of the front during the afternoon,
mainly in eastern Nevada, bringing breezy to windy conditions,
though advisory level winds looked confined to the mountains.
Northwest winds will follow the cold front, but wont be as strong
as the winds ahead of it. This will also be the start of a cooling
trend, with high temperatures Thursday around 10 degrees cooler
in northern Nevada, with highs in the 60's and 70's, and around 5
degrees cooler in central Nevada, with highs in the 70's and
80's.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday. Models are in pretty
good agreement. Although the LKN CWFA is trending dry, the upper
level pattern continues to be progressive so absolutely dry
conditions may not happen. There could be some dry variety
thunderstorms with a little precipitation.

Thursday night through Friday night. A low pressure center will
be moving east along the Canadian/U.S. border. The trough axis
from this system will be dragging through Nevada. Until the axis
moves east of the state, there could be a small risk for some
thunderstorms. Not a lot of moisture showing up so could be some
dry thunderstorms over the eastern part of the state. High
temperatures will range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. Low
temperatures will range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.

Saturday through Monday morning. A cooler northwest flow aloft
will be battling with weak shortwave ridging in advance of
another low pressure system moving down the Pacific coastline.
Instability in the form of dry thunderstorm activity is possible
east of Elko and Eureka. Temperatures could be highly variable
across the region during the push/pull of features. High
temperatures will range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s Saturday,
warming some on Sunday. Low temperatures will be in the 40s.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Low pressure will rather rapidly
move into the Pacific Northwest, then stall out along the coast of
Washington and Oregon. The flow aloft will turn southwest and
there will be continued instability east of Elko and Eureka.
Again, thunderstorms could be dry during this time-frame. High
temperatures will range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. Low
temperatures will be in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions will be VFR at KWMC...KBAM...KEKO...
KELY...and KTPH through Wednesday evening. Density altitudes will
be higher Wednesday afternoon than Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry again today. A trof will be moving
into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, and this will start to
tighten the gradients some, allowing for a breezy afternoon. A
mainly dry cold front will move through Nevada on Thursday, though
there may be an isolated late afternoon thunderstorm, likely dry,
in FW Zone 455, mainly in the vicinity of Great Basin National
Park. West winds will strengthen ahead of the front during the
afternoon, mainly in FW Zones, 469, 470, 455, and 457, bringing
breezy to windy conditions. Northwest winds will follow the cold
front, but wont be as strong as the winds ahead of it. This will
also be the start of a cooling trend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...River levels are still running high on the Humboldt
from Carlin to Comus, where Flood Warnings continue. Upstream,
some areas along the Humboldt are in monitor stage, but remain
below Flood Stage. Lamoille Creek is still running strong and is
expected to hover around flood stage for the next couple of days.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

90/92/98/90