Tornado Warning 78, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
128 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...06z sounding continues to show a very
tropical airmass in place. Freezing levels are a very high 18k
feet and the 500mb temperature is a very warm -1.5C. The
atmosphere is also moisture loaded with a deep pool of tropical
moisture extending up to 400mb. Precipitable water values and mean
mixing ratios are a very high 2.30 inches and 17.2g/kg
respectively. These values support the potential for heavy
rainfall. A high degree of directional shear is also noted with
storm relative helicity values in the lowest kilometer of the
atmosphere a very high 268m2/s2. Thus, there is potential for
tornadic activity in any convective cells that develop. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  72  79  71 /  80 100  90  70
BTR  81  74  81  74 / 100 100  90  60
ASD  83  74  83  74 /  80  70  80  60
MSY  84  77  85  77 /  90 100  70  50
GPT  83  75  83  75 /  70  60  70  70
PQL  85  74  85  74 /  70  60  70  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Hurricane Warning for LAZ056-059-065>068.

     Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>072.

     Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ034>037-040-046>050-057-058-
     060>064-069>072.

     Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ039.

     Hurricane Watch for LAZ069.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ050.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ550-552-570-572.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ530-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.

     Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ532.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

     Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ068-069.

     Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT Sunday for MSZ070-071-077.

     Tropical Storm Watch for MSZ080>082.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ552-570-572.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ534-536-538-555-557-575-577.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1055 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-131400-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
1055 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Tropical Storm Barry continues its slow movement toward the
south-central Louisiana coastline, with widespread impacts
expected across the area.

** A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of
 southeastern Louisiana

** A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the mouth of the MS river

** A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for inland areas of
 southeastern Louisiana, as well as areas from Baton Rouge on
 north. Also, Lake Pontchartrain and Maurepas

** A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for coastal counties
 in Mississippi.

** A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from the mouth of the
 Atchafalaya River to Biloxi, including Lake Pontchartrain from
 the southwest side around the northshore.

** A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Biloxi to the MS/AL
 Border.

** A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire area
 through Sunday morning.

**IMPACTS**

Widespread flash flooding, with rainfall totals nearing 10-20
inches along and west of I-55/New Orleans. Some isolated higher
amounts possible.

Strong, damaging winds near and within the center track, primarily
along and west of the MS river. Wind gusts 45-65 mph possible.
Gusty winds may still be possible well away from the center.

Storm surge for coastal regions of SE LA and MS as far east as
Biloxi. Inundation ranging from 2-4 feet for NW Lake
Pontchartrain, 1-3 Ft for the southshore and all of Lake Maurepas.
3-5 feet for Lake Pontchartrain and MS Coast. 4-6 feet for the
open coast of SE LA.

A few weak/brief tornadoes possible.

For more detailed information regarding the tropics and
associated local threats, please refer to local products issued
by our office.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

For Saturday: See impacts above, as Barry will continue its
northwestward track across south-central Louisiana. Impacts will
continue through the day, and into Saturday night.

Conditions will steadily improve on Sunday, but with lingering
rain bands likely producing areas of flash flooding, as well as
isolated tornadoes primarily along and west of I-55.

We return to a normal summertime pattern by next week, with no
notable impacts across the region expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is being requested today and continuing
through the weekend.