Tornado Warning 6, NWS New Orleans, LA

358 
WWUS54 KLIX 102309
SVSLIX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
609 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2019

MSC005-102319-
/O.EXP.KLIX.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190310T2315Z/
Amite MS-
609 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN AMITE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
615 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3128 9054 3106 9055 3103 9065 3118 9076
      3133 9058
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 264DEG 11KT 3115 9058 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
351 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019

.SHORT TERM...
A stalled front currently stretches all the way across the Gulf
South from Central Texas across Louisiana to the Georgia coast.
Locally, the boundary is sitting right across Mississippi's
southwest counties. Its along there that isolated to scattered
showers have been developing today. The only other location where
showers exist is in the offshore coastal waters where surface/low
level moisture levels are considerably higher.

Monday should be quite similar to today as the frontal boundary will
remain stalled across the region. Temps on the northern side of the
front will be 5 to 10 degrees than locations south of it. Showers
and possibly isolated thunderstorms will be possible on either side
although a higher percentage has been to the north today. Coverage
should be relatively high but rainfall totals on the lower side.

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday progged to be a transitional day. The frontal boundary that
was in place will dissipate while upper level ridge centered near
the Bay of Campeche and expands across the entire Gulf of Mexico.
Temps should respond to this by moderating quite a bit. Have
increased highs by a few degrees from the previous forecast, staying
close to MEX as blends typically miss days like this. Even warmer
temps are expected Wednesday as compressional warming ahead of the
approaching boundary enhances low level warming. Didn't go to 85
yet, but should be noted that the MEX has that for Baton Rouge.

Strong building ridge this time of year is typically indicative of a
strong trough to the west and that appears to be the case this time
as well. Models show an upper trough dropping out of the Rockies
Tuesday and occluding as it tracks across the Central Plains
Wednesday, then to the Great Lakes Thursday/Friday. The upper low's
track of racing northeast vs east will result in a slower moving
front this far south. The GFS shows the front pushing through the
CWA Thursday and remain offshore. The ECMWF suggests that post
frontal moisture will linger through Saturday 12z, which is about 24
hours longer than the GFS. No significant changes were made to the
previous forecast, which is closer to the wetter ECMWF run.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR to MVFR conditions were being observed this afternoon at the
terminals. However, widespread IFR and LIFR category conditions or
occasionally lower will develop this evening and overnight as a low
stratus deck and areas of fog form again. These conditions will
persist much of MOnday morning before improving in the afternoon. 11

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light southeast to east flow will prevail across the
coastal waters tonight and Monday as a cold front settles near the
central Gulf Coast and becoming stationary. This boundary will pull
back to the north Tuesday. Onshore winds will increase Wednesday and
Thursday in advance of a storm system moving into the Plains that
will push an associated cold front across the coastal waters
Thursday night and Friday. Small craft advisory conditions will be
possible Wednesday and Thursday in advance of the front, and then
again in the wake of the front Friday. 11

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Marine Dense Fog Advisory.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  69  57  76 /  30  70  20   0
BTR  65  78  61  81 /  30  60  20  10
ASD  64  78  61  73 /  30  50  30  10
MSY  66  78  63  76 /  30  30  20  10
GPT  63  73  60  73 /  30  50  30   0
PQL  64  77  60  73 /  30  50  30   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538-
     550-552-555.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
351 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-111400-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
351 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Areas of dense fog are expected to redevelop overnight. The fog will
likely be the most concentrated over and near lakes, bayous, rivers
and other bodies of water. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect tonight
and Monday morning for the nearshore coastal waters, sounds and
tidal lakes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Areas of dense fog are expected Monday morning...especially near
lakes, bayous, river and other bodies of water.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday and Thursday as a
cold front front approaches and then moves through the region. At
this time, the potential for severe thunderstorms appears to be low.

Small craft advisory conditions are expected to develop over the
open Gulf waters Wednesday and continue into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
550 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2019

MSZ069-070-102315-
Pike-Amite-
550 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN PIKE AND SOUTHEASTERN
AMITE COUNTIES...

At 549 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles north of
Gillsberg, or 9 miles east of Liberty, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mccomb, Magnolia, Summit and Mccomb Airport.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3104 9068 3121 9075 3134 9047 3109 9036
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 250DEG 12KT 3116 9064