Tornado Warning 38, NWS New Orleans, LA

906 
WWUS54 KLIX 082302
SVSLIX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
602 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

LAC033-037-082315-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-190508T2315Z/
East Feliciana LA-East Baton Rouge LA-
602 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN EAST FELICIANA AND NORTHEASTERN EAST BATON ROUGE
PARISHES...
    
At 602 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Zachary, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Zachary, Clinton, Slaughter and Pride. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3071 9085 3070 9085 3069 9088 3066 9090
      3064 9092 3060 9106 3071 9119 3088 9100
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 229DEG 15KT 3068 9108 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

TD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
354 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

.DISCUSSION...
An active and wet period of weather is expected to get going
across the local area starting tomorrow as frontal boundary is
expected to move into the region and stall through the weekend.
Continued onshore flow will pump tropical moisture over the area
with PW values in the 1.7 to 2.0 inch range for several days. This
coupled with that boundary over the area, sufficient instability,
and relatively slow storm motions sets the stage for a multi day
heavy rain threat across the entire region through Sunday. The
Storm Prediction Center highlights portions of the forecast area
with a Slight Risk for severe weather for tomorrow as the front
moves in. Will have to monitor storms for gusty winds, hail, and
heavy rain. The tornado threat looks to be low but non zero.
Showers and storms will continue in waves over the weekend. Any
day could produce locally heavy rainfall and the potential of
flash flooding and isolated severe storms. Stay weather aware
through the weekend. We can expect 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across the local area with some isolated higher amounts possible.
A flash flood watch may be needed at some point this weekend but
will have to see where the boundary and storm track sets up. The
front slightly pushes offshore by Monday allowing for a small
break. However unsettled pattern returns next week with low
confidence in forecast certainty.

&&

.AVIATION...
Terminals will be generally VFR with dips into MVFR
and IFR possible. Current main concern is ongoing line of showers
with maybe a thunderstorm or two embedded around KBTR down to
around KHUM. These will move from western terminals to eastern
terminals in the next 1-3 hours. But given the general weakening
trend, unsure if they will even make it to LA/MS border.
Additional convection is still possible today. Ceilings will
start lower overnight to low end VFR/MVFR or IFR. There should be
no additional visibility concerns outside of any TSRA that
develop. Winds will generally be out of the southeast around
5-10kts, but may be a bit gustier near KGPT or KNEW.

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore winds will continue through the rest of today through
late week and beyond. Small craft should exercise caution tonight
through Thursday as the onshore winds become slightly stronger.
Expect a frontal boundary to stall near the area and bring waves
of convection across the region for most of the weekend.
At this time, there may be a wide range of hazards including
locally strong winds gusting to gale force or higher and
waterspouts. Beyond this period, long-range guidance suggests a
stalled front to set up across the northern Gulf, which will keep
active weather in place into early next week.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Yellow.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Marginal to Slight Risk for Severe Weather today through
            Friday.
            Marginal to Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall Thurs.
            Ongoing river flood warnings.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend

Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or
         excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk
         severe or excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe
         and/or excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats;
         Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  85  69  80 /  20  60  60  80
BTR  73  86  71  81 /  20  50  60  80
ASD  71  86  71  83 /  10  40  50  60
MSY  75  86  73  84 /  10  40  30  70
GPT  73  83  72  82 /  20  40  40  50
PQL  70  86  71  85 /  10  30  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
511 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-091015-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
511 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight, a few which may
become strong to severe, particularly west of I-55. The primary
threats will be damaging winds, small hail, and brief heavy
rainfall that may result in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There will be decent chance for thunderstorms each day through
next Tuesday. There is a Marginal to Slight risk of severe storms
for the outlook area Thursday. The main threats will be damaging
wind gusts, isolated tornadoes and periods of heavy rainfall
Thursday and Thursday night. With daily rainfall anticipated,
accumulations can become several inches in some locations over
time, making the risk of flooding greater by early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Thursday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
158 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

LAZ058-060-072-081945-
St. Charles LA-Southern Tangipahoa LA-St. John The Baptist LA-
158 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 158 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Laplace, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Reserve, Laplace, Hahnville, Norco, Montz, New Sarpy, Edgard,
Destrehan and Killona.

LAT...LON 3034 9027 3026 9033 3022 9041 3018 9043
      3009 9041 3005 9037 3005 9029 2997 9035
      3004 9058 3016 9053 3017 9046 3021 9043
      3026 9043 3028 9040 3030 9043 3032 9042
      3034 9047
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 206DEG 13KT 3005 9045

BL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
513 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

LAZ036-047-048-082245-
East Feliciana-West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-
513 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WEST BATON ROUGE...
SOUTHERN EAST FELICIANA AND NORTHERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISHES...

At 513 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Baker, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Baton Rouge, Zachary, Baker, Slaughter, Pride, Brownfields and Baton
Rouge Airport.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3062 9133 3065 9131 3087 9107 3067 9088
      3063 9093 3046 9124 3059 9136
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 230DEG 24KT 3059 9124

TD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
533 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

LAZ036-048-082315-
East Feliciana-East Baton Rouge-
533 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN EAST FELICIANA AND
NORTHERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISHES...

At 532 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Zachary, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Baton Rouge, Zachary, Baker, Clinton, Slaughter and Pride.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3072 9085 3071 9085 3053 9121 3065 9129
      3065 9130 3093 9100
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 232DEG 19KT 3064 9118

TD