Special Marine Warning 310, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
508 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...

Surface high pressure will remain in place over the eastern Gulf
through early next week with a continental upper level ridge
in place over the northeast. An inverted trough will keep pops
high through the remainder of the weekend and into early next
week. with PWs over the 2 inch mark.

.LONG TERM...

A massive upper level ridge will build over the Intermountain
west on Tuesday and an unusually deep upper level trough will dig
into the eastern conus. This will bring an unseasonably strong
cold front into the region by Tuesday increasing pops into the 70s
and 80s. Front expected to slowly sag southward towards the coast
by late Tuesday night into Wednesday and then stalling somewhere
either along or south of the Mississippi and Louisiana coasts.
Depending on how far south the front stalls will determine
rainfall amounts for the second half of the week. Northern areas
north of I-12 could possibly get a couple of dry days on Wednesday
and Thursday depending how far south the front stalls. Lows
forecast to be in the middle to upper 60s Tuesday night through
Thursday night for areas along and north of I-12 as confidence has
increased with both the EURO and GFS bringing cooler and drier
air into those areas. Models showing front stalling just offshore
and slowly edging northward bringing increased rainfall and higher
PWS by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Occasional MVFR conditions, mainly ceilings, near convection. With
little movement of convection, will continue with VCTS mention.
Anticipate most convection should dissipate near sunset, with mid
and high clouds common overnight. Expect redevelopment of convection
Sunday by mid to late morning. 35

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure will remain in place over the northeastern
Gulf through early next week. Typical light southeasterly flow
will remain in place through early next week. Typical summertime
nocturnal thunderstorms over the coast waters. Winds will remain
light and variable through early Tuesday. Winds will become
northwesterly by late Tuesday night and continue into Thursday as
a cold front pushes into the area and stalls just offshore near
the mouth of the river.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: River flood warnings.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
         or excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
         HazMat or other large episodes.
Red =    Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
         excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of
         National Significance.

&&

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