Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
354 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

.DISCUSSION...
An active and wet period of weather is expected to get going
across the local area starting tomorrow as frontal boundary is
expected to move into the region and stall through the weekend.
Continued onshore flow will pump tropical moisture over the area
with PW values in the 1.7 to 2.0 inch range for several days. This
coupled with that boundary over the area, sufficient instability,
and relatively slow storm motions sets the stage for a multi day
heavy rain threat across the entire region through Sunday. The
Storm Prediction Center highlights portions of the forecast area
with a Slight Risk for severe weather for tomorrow as the front
moves in. Will have to monitor storms for gusty winds, hail, and
heavy rain. The tornado threat looks to be low but non zero.
Showers and storms will continue in waves over the weekend. Any
day could produce locally heavy rainfall and the potential of
flash flooding and isolated severe storms. Stay weather aware
through the weekend. We can expect 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across the local area with some isolated higher amounts possible.
A flash flood watch may be needed at some point this weekend but
will have to see where the boundary and storm track sets up. The
front slightly pushes offshore by Monday allowing for a small
break. However unsettled pattern returns next week with low
confidence in forecast certainty.

&&

.AVIATION...
Terminals will be generally VFR with dips into MVFR
and IFR possible. Current main concern is ongoing line of showers
with maybe a thunderstorm or two embedded around KBTR down to
around KHUM. These will move from western terminals to eastern
terminals in the next 1-3 hours. But given the general weakening
trend, unsure if they will even make it to LA/MS border.
Additional convection is still possible today. Ceilings will
start lower overnight to low end VFR/MVFR or IFR. There should be
no additional visibility concerns outside of any TSRA that
develop. Winds will generally be out of the southeast around
5-10kts, but may be a bit gustier near KGPT or KNEW.

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore winds will continue through the rest of today through
late week and beyond. Small craft should exercise caution tonight
through Thursday as the onshore winds become slightly stronger.
Expect a frontal boundary to stall near the area and bring waves
of convection across the region for most of the weekend.
At this time, there may be a wide range of hazards including
locally strong winds gusting to gale force or higher and
waterspouts. Beyond this period, long-range guidance suggests a
stalled front to set up across the northern Gulf, which will keep
active weather in place into early next week.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Yellow.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Marginal to Slight Risk for Severe Weather today through
            Friday.
            Marginal to Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall Thurs.
            Ongoing river flood warnings.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend

Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or
         excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk
         severe or excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe
         and/or excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats;
         Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  85  69  80 /  20  60  60  80
BTR  73  86  71  81 /  20  50  60  80
ASD  71  86  71  83 /  10  40  50  60
MSY  75  86  73  84 /  10  40  30  70
GPT  73  83  72  82 /  20  40  40  50
PQL  70  86  71  85 /  10  30  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
511 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-091015-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
511 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight, a few which may
become strong to severe, particularly west of I-55. The primary
threats will be damaging winds, small hail, and brief heavy
rainfall that may result in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There will be decent chance for thunderstorms each day through
next Tuesday. There is a Marginal to Slight risk of severe storms
for the outlook area Thursday. The main threats will be damaging
wind gusts, isolated tornadoes and periods of heavy rainfall
Thursday and Thursday night. With daily rainfall anticipated,
accumulations can become several inches in some locations over
time, making the risk of flooding greater by early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Thursday.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>