Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
239 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...
A short wave trough embedded in the southern stream will traverse
the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf coast region today
resulting in numerous showers and thunderstorms...some possibly
strong to severe. Most of the convection early this morning was
still well to the west of the area over southeast Texas and the
northwest Gulf. Scattered activity was also occurring over south
central Mississippi and northeast Louisiana as well as southwest
Louisiana. The chance for convection over the local forecast area will
significantly increase after daybreak today. Models forecast the
convection to move in from the west and develop eastward during
the morning hours across the western half of the forecast area and
progress eastward during the day. There are still some
differences in the timing of the convection, but from mid morning
through mid afternoon looks to be the likely time to see the most
concentrated and widespread convection moving west to east across
the forecast area. Forecast soundings show precipitable water
values increasing to near 1.75 inches today with CAPE values in
the 1000-1500 j/kg range and moderate instability. Shear values
are somewhat lacking. Strong or damaging thunderstorm wind gusts
appear to be the primary threat with the thunderstorms today.

The convection threat will wane late today and overnight as the
system pushes off to the east along with the best moisture. A weak
cold front will sag south into the area tonight into Sunday and
become stationary near the coast or across the coastal waters. A
mostly dry day is expected on Sunday with any shower or
thunderstorm activity confined to the coastal waters and immediate
coast. 11

.LONG TERM...
A mostly dry day will be in the offing for Monday before another
southern stream short wave trough moves across the lower
Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states Tuesday. This will bring
another round of convection to the forecast area Tuesday with the
possibility of some strong storms. Thereafter, some threat of
convection will exist each day next week although it appears that
the greatest concentration of activity will be to our north along
a stationary frontal boundary. This boundary may move south into
our area next weekend. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
The biggest concern will be the risk of showers and thunderstorms
affecting the terminals from early to mid morning through the
early afternoon hours. Have included SHRA and VCTS wording in the
forecast generally from 14z through 21z for the terminals along
with some MVFR visibility restrictions. At KBTR, have some IFR
restrictions dependent on the thunderstorms currently over
Southwest Louisiana holding together. Once the convective band
clears the area around 21-22z, prevailing ceilings in the 3000 to
6000 feet range and lingering light rain showers can be expected
through the evening hours. Some low stratus may try to develop
around 06z tomorrow night. 32

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will continue today into early
tonight, but a frontal passage later tonight will shift winds to
an offshore flow by tomorrow morning. The wind field should be
lighter with winds of 5 to 10 knots expected through the day
tomorrow. Seas will remain in the 1 to 3 feet range through the
tomorrow. The main concern today will be gusty winds and locally
higher seas associated with any passing thunderstorms. By Monday,
high pressure will restrengthen over the eastern Gulf. This will
allow for a prevailing southeast wind of 10 to 15 knots to develop
and then persist through Tuesday. A low pressure system passing
north of the area on Wednesday and Thursday will increase the
pressure gradient over the coastal waters resulting in a period of
15 to 20 knot winds and exercise caution conditions. Seas should
also increase to 4 to 6 feet by Wednesday night due to this
increase in wind speed. 32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Yellow.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today. River flood
warnings.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
         or excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
         HazMat or other large episodes.
Red =    Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
         excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of
         National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  62  84  62 /  80  20  10   0
BTR  80  64  86  65 /  70  10  10   0
ASD  82  64  85  65 /  80  20  10   0
MSY  82  68  85  69 /  80  20  10   0
GPT  81  66  84  66 /  80  20  10   0
PQL  83  65  85  64 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
330 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-050000-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
330 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous thunderstorms are expected to move from west to east across
the area today. Some of these storms could be strong to severe.
There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms today with the
primary threat being damaging thunderstorm wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms will be possible each day next week with the best
chance on Tuesday when a few strong storms will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested for today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1149 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

LAZ040-062-MSZ080-081-041730-
Orleans LA-St. Tammany LA-Harrison MS-Hancock MS-
1149 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ORLEANS AND
SOUTHEASTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISHES...WESTERN HARRISON AND HANCOCK
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

At 1148 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stennis Space Center, or 10 miles west of Waveland, moving northeast
at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gulfport, Long Beach, Bay St. Louis, Waveland, Diamondhead, Lake
Catherine, Kiln, Pearlington, Lyman, Shoreline Park, Stennis Space
Center and Gulfport Airport.

LAT...LON 3030 8927 3036 8928 3037 8935 3034 8938
      3032 8932 3025 8942 3018 8945 3016 8965
      3015 8963 3006 8973 3016 8973 3018 8968
      3018 8971 3041 8972 3062 8934 3065 8934
      3065 8925 3068 8923 3038 8906
TIME...MOT...LOC 1648Z 243DEG 33KT 3034 8955

BL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1150 AM CDT SAT MAY 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1059 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE MANDEVILLE        30.35N 90.02W
05/04/2019                   ST. TAMMANY        LA   OTHER FEDERAL

            FEDERAL EMPLOYEE REPORTED LARGE TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN AT
            PELICAN PARK RECREATION COMPLEX. EVENT TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

BWAGNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1226 PM CDT SAT MAY 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND LAKEFRONT AIRPORT       30.04N 90.03W
05/04/2019  M43 MPH          ORLEANS            LA   ASOS

            LAKEFRONT AIRPORT REPORTED A 37 KNOT WIND GUST DURING A
            THUNDERSTORM.

&&

BWAGNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1228 PM CDT Sat May 4 2019

MSZ081-082-041845-
Jackson MS-Harrison MS-
1228 PM CDT Sat May 4 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARRISON AND JACKSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 1228 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lyman, or 11 miles north of Gulfport, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gulfport, Biloxi, Ocean Springs, Long Beach, Moss Point, St. Martin,
Escatawpa, Gautier, D'iberville, Wade, Latimer, Big Point, Lyman,
Saucier, Helena, Gulf Hills, Hurley, Vancleave, Gulf Park Estates and
Hickory Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for
southern and southeastern Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3036 8845 3033 8845 3032 8850 3037 8861
      3036 8861 3034 8873 3038 8879 3038 8878
      3043 8884 3043 8893 3042 8901 3040 8886
      3034 8916 3067 8920 3067 8889 3073 8888
      3074 8842 3035 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 261DEG 32KT 3056 8908

BL

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