Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
337 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A low pressure frontal system is expected to move through our area
this evening into Monday. There is currently ample moisture and
lifting in the atmosphere this afternoon. In addition, the winds
are primarily southeasterly, which will allow for some directional
shear development early this evening ahead of the frontal system.
Ahead of the front, these storms have the potential to be severe,
with primary threats of damaging winds and hail, with the threat
lingering well into Monday. The system should remain progressive
enough to limit a widespread flood threat, but heavy rainfall is
likely to occur at times due to large difluent wind pattern at jet
level. The rainfall amounts expected are around 1 to 3 inches
with locally higher amounts possible. These storms will continue
through the day Monday.

Monday night through Tuesday night there is also a low confidence
of some more rainfall to develop as a result of the trailing low
pressure system and attendant cold pool aloft. This rainfall
would occur as a result of moisture availability and some warm air
advection that is continuing near the surface. These factors are
enhancing some ability for uplift, which will help these showers
to develop on Tuesday. These storms are not expected to be severe
due to the lack of shear and sufficient CAPE in the environment,
but some small hail could possibly result due to cold pool
dynamics.

Wednesday through Friday an upper level ridge will cause a drier
pattern for the end of this week. Upper level convergence will
cause subsidence and stable air through this period. Southeasterly
winds Friday will help to enhance the amount of moisture and
shear in the area.

Friday night into Saturday, a low pressure system is expected to
produce a line of storms moving eastward through our area.
These storms will likely have gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall. The models are still very uncertain on the severity,
amount of uplift, and timing of this system. As the front
develops, it will be easier to tell the potential impacts of this
system. The rainfall from this system is expected to last through
Sunday. MSW

&&
.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms will move in from the west to east
affecting all taf sites on this evening and overnight. A few of
those storms could be strong and will gusts up to 35 knots. Expect
storms/showers to impact the area around 0Z Monday and go through
the end of the TAF period. 18

&&

.MARINE...

A persistent south-southeast wind of 10 to 15 knots can be expected
over the coastal waters. Winds could increase into exercise caution
range of 15 to 20 knots over the open Gulf waters by Monday morning
as a low pressure system passes to the north of the area. Winds
should relax back into the 10 to 15 knot and shift to the northwest
after a front moves through. High pressure moves in and becomes
centered over the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, the wind field will
relax even further to 10 knots or less. Seas should turn fairly calm
at 2 feet or less. 18

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Yellow
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: River Flood Warnings.
			Slight Risk for Severe Weather/Excessive Rainfall.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue =  Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
        visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory          issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red =   Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive         rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of
National Significance.

&&
24/RR

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
506 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

LAZ035-036-MSZ068-072230-
East Feliciana-West Feliciana-Wilkinson-
506 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN WEST FELICIANA...
NORTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISHES IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
WILKINSON COUNTIES...

At 504 PM CDT, a cluster of strong thunderstorms were located near
Woodville, or 16 miles northwest of Jackson, moving north at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms. Reports of
possible funnel clouds have been received from the Woodville area
with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, St. Francisville, Woodville, Wakefield, Spillman, Fort Adams
and Dolorosa.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3133 9124 3076 9110 3074 9136 3116 9160
      3117 9159 3121 9159 3123 9153 3122 9151
      3124 9148 3128 9149
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 167DEG 21KT 3104 9134

24/RR