Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1253 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

.UPDATE...

Main update this morning was to produce all the forecast,
watch/warning and graphics products for the first advisory for
Potential Tropical Cyclone #2 (PTC2), and for the Flash Flood Watch
(FFA) that was issued for areas along and south of the I-10/12
corridor through Thursday early evening. The FFA will likely need to
be extended in time to include more northern and western areas
Friday into the weekend as the rainfall forecasts are refined based
on the track of PTC2. Serious flash flooding occurred this morning
in New Orleans and some surrounding areas, and some of the deeper
water areas like some underpasses and lowest lying neighborhoods
will take additional time to drain and get pumped out this
afternoon. Additional flooding can't be ruled out if additional
heavy rain develops.

Other concern is for minor coastal flooding outside of the storm
surge watch area from the Mississippi Gulf coast to the northern and
western shoreline areas of Lake Pontchartrain and surrounding Lake
Maurepas. Tidal rises of 1 to 2 feet with local 3 foot rises are
possible, so will likely introduce a Coastal Flood Advisory valid
starting with Thursday's high tide cycle with the late afternoon
forecast package. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions prevailing today with occassional lower
visibilities and ceilings due to isolated to scattered SHRA
showers. Late morning and afternoon, the winds will increase to
15-20 knots mainly on the coastal areas and near Lake
Pontchartrain. MSW

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code:   Orange.
Deployed:   None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Potential Tropical Cyclone #2, Tropical Storm and
Storm Surge Watches, River Flood Warnings along Mississippi River

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
         or excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
         excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of
         National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  75  93  74 /  50  50  70  30
BTR  92  76  92  76 /  50  50  70  30
ASD  94  75  92  75 /  70  60  70  50
MSY  92  78  91  79 /  80  70  70  50
GPT  92  76  88  77 /  70  60  70  50
PQL  94  75  91  75 /  70  50  80  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Tropical Storm Watch for LAZ056-059-065>069.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for LAZ040-046>050-
     056>070-072.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday
     for GMZ536-538-557.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MSZ080>082.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ552-555-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday
     for GMZ538-557.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1145 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-110445-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
1145 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast today. A few
storms could become strong to severe producing with damaging wind
gusts, very heavy rainfall and frequent lightning being the main
threats. A flash flood watch has been issued for southeast
Louisiana and coastal Mississippi.

The Tropical Prediction Center has started advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone 2. Tropical storm watches and storm surge watches
are now in effect for portions of our area. Please refer to the
Local Action Statement issued by this office and the National
Hurricane Center for further information concerning this system.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 will bring the potential of flooding
rainfall to the area. Totals are expected to range from 6 to 12
inches with localized higher amounts through Monday. The highest
of these amounts are expected along and west of I-55 and the bulk
of this rain is expected from late Thursday through Sunday. The
flash flood watch will likely need to expanded in both the
affected area and the timing.

Additional threats, including coastal flooding, winds and
tornadic activity are expected as well. More information on these
threats can be found in the Local Action Statement issued by this
office.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required beginning tomorrow and through
the weekend.

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