Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS New Orleans, LA

275 
WWUS54 KLIX 071736
SVSLIX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

MSC059-071800-
/O.CON.KLIX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-190607T1800Z/
Jackson MS-
1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY...

At 1235 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Vancleave, or
near Escatawpa, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Escatawpa, Hurley, Big Point, Vancleave and Wade. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3050 8877 3073 8865 3074 8841 3055 8840
      3050 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 266DEG 25KT 3056 8859 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CAB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1102 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

.UPDATE...
Raised todays highs by a degree. Otherwise, made no changes.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely today. Atmosphere is very
unstable. The upper level low centered over AR is providing enough
cyclonic shear to produce more robust thunderstorms than we would
normally expect for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
High temperatures will be greatly influence by which areas get
showers and thunderstorms today.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest flow 10 to 15 knots near shore and 15 to 20 knots
offshore can be expected today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019/

SHORT TERM...
Numbers will be different today than yesterday while others
remain relatively unchanged. CAPE numbers are impressive once
again today along with lapse rates, 3k+ Joules and 7.1C/Km from
0-3km. These numbers remain somewhat unchanged. Helicity values
have backed way off though from 300+ M2/S2 yesterday to around 50
M2/S2 today. We will remain sfc based today while the LCL and LFC
also remain coupled for the most part, although heights will be a
little higher today around 2kft than yesterdays 200ft. LI values
will also be a little higher today from -7 yesterday to -3 today.
PW values have also lowered to around 1.7" today from 2+"
yesterday. WetBulb0 heights have changed from 15kft yesterday to
a much stronger 11kft for today. These are some of the variables
that are major players in determining severe weather and which
modes will accompany. These numbers suggest that a few severe
thunderstorms will be possible today. Strong lift but small
helicity values will keep the risk of a tornado developing today
but since helicity values are much lower, we should not see as
many, the basic high CAPE low shear environment. Downdraft CAPE
values are not impressive but high enough to even give the
slightest possibility of strong wind speeds associated with
thunderstorms. PW values lowering is a really good thing as it
shows the environment is not holding copious amounts of water and
therefore can't produce as much rain when compared to the same
size cell from a higher PW environment. But, 1.7" is not to say no
issues. We will still have a few cells along convergent
boundaries that will train over some areas today but tallies
should be lower and no widespread flooding is expected. But again,
since the ground is saturated it would not take a lot of rain for
an isolated report especially in low lying and poor drainage
areas. Individual cells should be moving east or northeast at
around 10-15kt today instead of the slow 5-10kt pace yesterday.
This helps as well by not keeping these heavy rain producers over
one place for a long period. The one number that does stick out is
the WBZ heights lowering today. This makes the possibility of
thunderstorms containing hail much better. And some of the fcst
sounding profiles are showing that possibility of a few
thunderstorms containing large hail. So, all in all, we can't take
any modes of severe wx off the table, but we also shouldn't see
numbers like yesterday either. And the odds of getting each mode
have differed putting large hail and damaging winds the main
culprits while flooding and tornadoes are come in second place.

Southerly winds that drove a quick surge of water shoreward
yesterday have eased from 20-30mph yesterday to 15mph today. Due
to this, tides have lowered this morning but we are still in
spring tide and southwest winds will help keep water against
coastal areas mainly west of the Miss River with Plaquemines
Parish observing the highest water levels of all these locations.
Even though water levels may be high enough to cause a few
secondary roads to have water up to or just over the roadway,
there is not enough depth of surge values to issue a coastal flood
advisory. But this can be reassessed later today for the above
mentioned areas.

The stacked low will meander around the Gulf south for a few more
days until the long wave trough is through digging. The
interesting thing here is the trough digs quite far south for this
time of year. This sends a cold front through the area Tuesday
morning. North winds will have already been in place. A frontal
passage this time of year normally spells HEAT. But front is
showing up with actual cool air advection dropping high temps back
into the low to mid 80s for Tuesday and lows in the lower 60s
over the northern portion of the area Tuesday night. This is not
totally unheard of, but it not common. Rain chances should slowly
lower over the next several days and quite possibly be almost
zero by mid next week.

AVIATION...
Expect MVFR to VFR conditions for today over the area as a low
pressure system works its way through the area. Expect showers and
storms to develop at most terminals this afternoon that could
briefly drop categories into the IFR category.

MARINE...
Low pressure system will move slowly east across lower Mississippi
valley through this evening and exit the region on Saturday. Winds
will remain elevated through Saturday morning across the waters out
of the southwest at 15 to 20 knots. Exercise Caution headlines have
been issued for most of the coastal waters through Saturday morning.
A weak cold front with drier air should push into the coastal waters
Sunday night into Monday which should turn winds around to northwest
to north early next week. Wind speeds should mostly remain below 15
knots behind this front.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Yellow.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Flood warnings continue along the Mississippi and
            Atchafalaya Rivers.
            Slight risk of excessive rainfall Today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  69  87  69 /  70  40  30  10
BTR  89  72  88  71 /  70  40  30  10
ASD  89  73  90  71 /  70  50  50  20
MSY  90  77  90  76 /  60  50  40  10
GPT  87  75  87  74 /  70  60  60  30
PQL  89  72  90  71 /  70  60  70  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
552 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-072300-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
552 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall today. Although
widespread flooding is not expected, isolated flooding of low
lying and poor drainage areas will be possible.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today. Damaging
winds, large hail, frequent lightning and isolated an tornado
will be possible.

Tide levels will remain elevated and may be up to some secondary
roadways, but conditions are not expected to cause any large scale
negative impacts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The risk of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
944 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

LAZ040-072-071545-
Southern Tangipahoa-St. Tammany-
944 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ST. TAMMANY AND
SOUTHEASTERN TANGIPAHOA PARISHES...

At 944 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Robert, or near
Hammond, moving east at 30 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Hammond, Covington, Ponchatoula, Madisonville, Robert and Natalbany.

LAT...LON 3062 9004 3035 9006 3037 9010 3037 9015
      3039 9019 3038 9023 3032 9029 3035 9048
      3054 9049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1444Z 267DEG 24KT 3046 9036

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
945 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

MSZ082-071530-
Jackson-
945 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY...

At 945 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Escatawpa,
moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Moss Point, Escatawpa, Gautier, Wade, Helena, Hurley, Big Point,
Vancleave and Hickory Hills.

LAT...LON 3042 8869 3065 8870 3074 8842 3072 8841
      3041 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 1445Z 250DEG 27KT 3055 8859

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1003 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

MSZ077-080-071545-
Hancock-Pearl River-
1003 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK AND EAST
CENTRAL PEARL RIVER COUNTIES...

At 1003 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Mcneil, or 9
miles south of Poplarville, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Hancock and east central Pearl River Counties.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3063 8934 3063 8962 3074 8963 3093 8935
TIME...MOT...LOC 1503Z 252DEG 19KT 3071 8956

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1012 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

LAZ040-MSZ077-080-071615-
St. Tammany-Hancock-Pearl River-
1012 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH...
WEST CENTRAL HANCOCK AND SOUTHWESTERN PEARL RIVER COUNTIES...

At 1012 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bush, or 9
miles northeast of Covington, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Picayune, Covington, Abita Springs, Sun, Mcneil and Bush.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3077 8965 3041 8957 3044 9016 3057 9011
      3067 8988 3066 8985 3069 8984
TIME...MOT...LOC 1512Z 260DEG 26KT 3055 8997

CAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1020 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

LAZ059-065>067-071615-
Lower Terrebonne-Upper Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Upper Lafourche-
1020 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN TERREBONNE AND
NORTHERN LAFOURCHE PARISHES...

At 1020 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Schriever, or
near Thibodaux, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Houma, Thibodaux, Larose, Cut Off, Lockport, Mathews, Schriever,
Gray, Raceland, Bayou Cane, Des Allemands and Bayou Gauche.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2961 9110 2980 9094 2990 9056 2989 9054
      2982 9047 2981 9047 2979 9044 2948 9017
TIME...MOT...LOC 1520Z 269DEG 28KT 2970 9083

CAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1125 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

MSZ081-082-071730-
Jackson-Harrison-
1125 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HARRISON AND WESTERN JACKSON
COUNTIES...

At 1125 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Saucier, or 16
miles northwest of Gulfport, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gulfport, Biloxi, Ocean Springs, Long Beach, St. Martin, D'iberville,
Latimer, Lyman, Saucier, Gulf Hills, Gulf Park Estates, Vancleave and
Gulfport Airport.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3037 8885 3038 8885 3038 8878 3043 8885
      3042 8901 3040 8886 3038 8907 3031 8929
      3035 8928 3037 8930 3065 8929 3065 8925
      3068 8924 3067 8889 3074 8888 3074 8871
      3034 8871
TIME...MOT...LOC 1625Z 268DEG 26KT 3060 8918