River Flood Warning 60, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
353 AM CDT Sat May 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...

Today through Monday...WSW flow continues with MCV moving through
the area producing ongoing showers and thunderstorms as of 4am
CDT east of the I-55. Dewpoints inside and east of the MCV are in
the lower to mid 70s with drier air just to the west in the mid
to upper 60s. Believe that as the MCV pushes east and north some
of that slightly drier air will work its way into the entire
region and allow for a period of dryness through much of the
morning. HRRR runs show this lasting through the morning with the
atmosphere recovering by mid afternoon with showers and
thunderstorms likely returning into the evening hours. Possibly
some of these may be strong to severe with heavy rainfall. Another
shortwave moves along the flow early Sunday...pulling the weak
cold front into the region allowing for showers and thunderstorms
to continue. Flash Flood Watch will stand due to the heavy
rainfall across large portions of the region the last two days and
the threat of more the next 48 hours. front looks to push out
sunday evening with drier conditions very likely. NW flow Monday
as low cuts off over the Great Lakes helps keep depper moisture
and boundary with showers and thunderstorms to the south across
the northern Gulf. Strong model agreement through period allows
for higher than normal confidence in the forecast. ABS

.LONG TERM...

Models not in agreement with placement of systems nor with the
timing as a whole...especially as we move towards the latter
portions of next week. average to below average confidence in the
forecast for the medium range due to these issues. Weak shortwave
looks to move across TX on Tuesday with some differences in speed
and placement...trend is slightly drier as it appears to be moving
more to the south and weaker. This may keep showers and
thunderstorms along the far south and in the Northern Gulf
Tuesday. Possible NW flow Wednesday keps the region mostly dry and
continues into Thursday with ridging across the area. The models
are doing a horrible job resolving anything across the eastern
portions of North America after Wed/Thursday. Have hung closer to
the NBM which keeps drier solution than the deterministic models
and keeps the region precip free with some ridging likely. Some
hints that return moisture could start as early as next Friday or
Saturday with showers and thunderstorms. With the uncertainty so
high have leaned heaviy on the ensemble blend and the drier
solution though at this time. Temps will remain close to normal
through the period with highs mainly in the 80-85 range and lows
in the 60s. ABS

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered convection is expected to continue across the forecast
area through at least 15z in association with a MCV moving across
the region. The exceptions will likely be KBTR and KHUM, as
convection appears to have moved east of those terminals. Convection
coverage is expected to increase again by the mid afternoon as
another impulse in the southwesterly flow aloft traverses the area.
Ceilings will vary greatly during the TAF forecast period. Ceilings
will be primarily VFR from late morning through the afternoon hours
away from convection, but will deteriorate to MVFR to IFR beyond
sunset. Some patchy fog will be possible tonight at KMCB, where the
coolest air will be. 35

&&

.MARINE...

Mostly onshore flow will prevail through Sunday morning, and
Exercise Caution headlines may be necessary late tonight and Sunday
morning, primarily over the open waters. Some erratic winds with
some stronger gusts may occur with showers and thunderstorms
advancing west to east across the Gulf. A weak cold front should
push through the marine area Sunday night which will turn winds to
north to northeast across most waters going into Monday. Still some
potential for thunderstorms over the outer waters early next week. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  66  81  59 /  90  80  70  10
BTR  79  69  82  62 /  90  70  70  10
ASD  81  68  83  62 /  70  80  60  20
MSY  82  71  83  68 /  70  70  60  20
GPT  79  69  82  65 /  60  80  60  20
PQL  82  69  84  63 /  60  80  60  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>065-071-072.

GM...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
424 AM CDT Sat May 11 2019

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-112130-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
424 AM CDT Sat May 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect today and tonight for southern
Mississippi and southeast Louisiana...except the immediate
Louisiana coast. Additional rainfall amounts up to 2 to 4 inches
will be possible this afternoon and evening.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. A few of the storms could be strong to severe and
produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours of
rain. There is a slight risk of severe storms for much of the
outlook area...except the immediate Louisiana coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Showers and thunderstorms will be likely Sunday. A Flash Flood
Watch is in effect through Sunday with an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rain possible with locally higher amounts possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through the weekend. Please
report any flooded roadways to local law enforcement.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
749 AM CDT Sat May 11 2019

MSZ081-082-111315-
Jackson-Harrison-
749 AM CDT Sat May 11 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HARRISON AND
JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 748 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Wade, or 7
miles north of Escatawpa, moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Moss Point, Escatawpa, Wade, Helena, Hurley, Big Point and Vancleave.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3040 8840 3059 8891 3073 8888 3074 8887
      3073 8843 3074 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1248Z 290DEG 35KT 3059 8855

24/RR