River Flood Warning 33, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
356 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

Upper low currently near the Missouri-Arkansas border. Surface low
is near the Middle Tennessee-Kentucky border with a cold front
southward to near Pensacola, then out into the Gulf of Mexico. Any
precipitation remaining over the CWA currently shouldn't be much
more than a few sprinkles. However, there are a few showers over
east Texas that are likely associated with an impulse rotating
through the upper trough. Temperatures at 3 am ranged from the mid
50s over southwest Mississippi to the mid 60s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Current expectation is to allow the Wind Advisory for the New
Orleans Metro Area to expire on schedule at 7 am, but that
decision will be driven by observations at the New Orleans
observing sites.

Upper low still forecast to rotate eastward across northern
Mississippi and Alabama today. Cold pool still appears to be
sufficient to produce scattered low topped convection today,
especially across the northern half of the area this afternoon.
Not a lot of CAPE to work with, 200-400 J/kg at McComb and Baton
Rouge, but lapse rates are nearly 8C/km and freezing level and Wet
Bulb Zero are near 5,000 feet, so some very small hail wouldn't
be out of the question with any showers that develop.

Low translates eastward quickly, and we should see any clouds and
showers depart the area shortly after sunset tonight. The
remainder of the Easter weekend will be dry.

Temperatures will be unseasonably cool today and tonight, roughly
10-15 degrees below normal, will go with a GFS/ECMWF meld in most
cases. Some moderation in temperatures for Saturday and Sunday,
but still won't quite make it back to normal this weekend. Don't
think there will be too many complaints though. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

First half of next week looks to be dry with near normal
temperatures. Beyond Wednesday, timing differences between ECMWF
and GFS on a southern stream shortwave produces a relatively low
confidence forecast. Would expect a period of showers and
thunderstorms as the shortwave moves across the area. Will carry
some mention of precipitation around Thursday. Temperatures near
to slightly above normal per GFS/ECMWF numbers. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR to VFR conditions will prevail overnight and early
Friday with VFR category conditions then prevailing throughout the
day Friday and into Friday night. Gusty northwest winds will develop
at the terminals tonight and Friday, especially at KNEW, KMSY and
KGPT. /11/

&&

.MARINE...

Cold front has moved through and winds have come
around to northwest. Strong northwest winds will remain in place
through tonight and may even persist into the day Saturday. Current
Gale Warnings are good with Small Craft Advisories taking over. High
pressure finally builds in over ahead this weekend and winds should
relax by late Saturday. High pressure will continue to work east
with weak onshore flow returning late Sunday and likely to remain in
place through the first half of next week. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: River Flood Warning
            Gale Warning and Wind Advisory

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support for Slight risk severe or
         excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
         HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
         excessive rain; direct tropical threats; Events of National
         Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  43  71  45 /  60  10   0   0
BTR  68  44  73  47 /  40  10   0   0
ASD  69  46  74  46 /  40  10   0   0
MSY  69  49  73  53 /  30  10   0   0
GPT  69  50  71  50 /  40  10   0   0
PQL  69  45  74  45 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ058-060>064.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT
     Saturday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-
     575-577.

     Gale Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ530-532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT
     Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-
     577.

     Gale Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-534-536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

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