Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
142 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 652 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019/

..Barry to make landfall later today along the central coast of
Louisiana...

.SYNOPSIS...

Barry still crawling toward the Louisiana coast west of Morgan
City, expected to make landfall later this morning or early this
afternoon. Southeast Louisiana currently in between rainbands, but
still plenty of rain on the south side of the storm to wrap around
the east side. Barry running out of time to reach hurricane
status, but still forecast to reach it before landfall. Recon only
just now getting near Barry as mechanical issues shortened last
evening's flight.

.DISCUSSION...

Little doubt that the highly publicized rain amounts will occur
somewhere along the track of Barry, but still not entirely clear
which side of the Atchafalaya River will see the largest amounts.
Surge and wind forecasts appear to be working out fairly well.
Expect a fairly quick weakening of circulation after landfall, but
still expect to see some north-south bands of heavy rain to become
stationary later in the day and this evening. Current headlines
will remain in place. Heavy rain threat will continue through at
least Sunday before relaxing, but do anticipate that at least some
portion of the Flash Flood Watch may be able to be cancelled
before expiration.

Bermuda high will build in by Tuesday or Wednesday, returning us
to a more normal summer pattern into next weekend. Area citizens
may be contending with flood fight concerns, so focus may shift to
messaging heat stress issues should folks be involved in recovery
activities.

.AVIATION...

No changes from previous discussion:

Ceilings will range from VFR to MVFR. Visibilities will lower to
MVFR to IFR with passage of heavy rain bands before improving.
More consistent issue will be wind at all terminals and LLWS at
KBTR and KHUM through pretty much entire forecast period. Wind
gusts of 30 to 55 knots not out of the question for many terminals
through at least the mid afternoon hours.

.MARINE...

Dangerous conditions will continue for at least the next 12-18
hours. Once tropical weather products are cancelled, they will
likely be replaced with Small Craft Advisories or Small Craft
Exercise Caution headlines until late in the day on Monday.
Onshore flow will gradually weaken by midweek.

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Red.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Tropical operations/Moderate to High Risk excessive rainfall/
            Slight Risk severe weather/River flood warnings.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
         or excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
         HazMat or other large episodes.
Red =    Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
         excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of
         National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  78  71  84 / 100  90  70  60
BTR  74  80  74  85 / 100  90  70  60
ASD  73  83  74  87 /  70  90  60  50
MSY  77  84  77  87 / 100  80  50  50
GPT  76  83  75  85 /  60  80  60  50
PQL  75  85  74  88 /  60  80  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Hurricane Warning for LAZ056-059-065>068.

     Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>072.

     Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ034>037-040-046>050-057-058-
     060>064-069>072.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ039.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ050.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ550-552-570-572.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ530-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ532.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

     Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ068-069.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for MSZ070-071-077-080>082.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ552-570-572.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ534-536-538-555-557-575-577.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1111 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-140415-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
1111 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Barry has become a hurricane and will continue to impact southeast
Louisiana and southern Mississippi through tonight.

Rainfall totals of 10-20 inches forecast along and west of I-55.
Some isolated higher amounts possible. These rainfall totals are
expected to result in widespread flash flooding as well as
widespread moderate to major flooding along area rivers.

A storm surge event is ongoing for coastal regions of southeast
Louisiana and Mississippi as far east as Biloxi. Inundation
ranging 4 to 6 feet along the open Louisiana coast to 3 to 5 feet
across Lake Borgne, the Mississippi coaast, and from the southwest
side of Lake Pontchartrain across the north shore, and 1 to 3
feet across the immediate south shore of Lake Pontchartrain and
all of Lake Maurepas.

Strong, damaging winds near the center of Barry's path, primarily
west of the MS river. Wind gusts 45-65 mph possible. Gusty winds
may still be possible well away from the center.

A few weak/brief tornadoes possible.

For more detailed information regarding the tropics and
associated local threats, please refer to specific local hazard
products.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Conditions will steadily improve on Sunday, but with lingering
rain bands likely producing areas of flash flooding, as well as
isolated tornadoes primarily along and west of I-55.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will continue today.

95/DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
859 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 AM     TROPICAL STORM   15 SSE VENICE           29.06N 89.30W
07/12/2019                   PLAQUEMINES        LA   MESONET

            THE WEATHERFLOW EAST BAY TOWER HAS BEEN REPORTING
            FREQUENT TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS SINCE AROUND 6AM CDT
            FRIDAY AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
            FORCE WINDS. THE HIGHEST GUST SO FAR IS 65MPH/41KTS AT
            934AM CDT FRIDAY. ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS 15M.

0612 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 SSE GRAND ISLE        29.26N 89.96W
07/12/2019                   JEFFERSON          LA   C-MAN STATION

            THE GRAND ISLE NOS/COOPS SITE REPORTED FREQUENT TROPICAL
            STORM FORCE GUSTS FRIDAY MORNING. IT HAS BEEN REPORTING
            OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS SINCE FRIDAY
            AFTERNOON. HIGHEST GUST SO FAR IS 50MPH/43KTS AT 612PM
            CDT FRIDAY. ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS 9M.

0735 PM     TROPICAL STORM   8 S LEEVILLE            29.12N 90.20W
07/12/2019                   LAFOURCHE          LA   AWOS

            THE FAA AWOS NEAR PORT FOURCHON WAS REPORTING FREQUENT
            TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST
            REPORTED GUST WAS 62 MPH AT 735PM CDT FRIDAY BEFORE IT
            STOPPED REPORTING. ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS 30M.

0300 AM     TROPICAL STORM   16 W COCODRIE           29.25N 90.92W
07/13/2019                   TERREBONNE         LA   MESONET

            AN AUTOMATED SITE NEAR CAILLOU LAKE HAS BEEN REPORTING
            SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SINCE AROUND 10PM
            CDT 7/12. HIGHEST WIND SO FAR IS 65MPH/56KTS AT 3AM CDT.
            ANEMOMETER HEIGHT 10M.

0330 AM     TROPICAL STORM   14 WSW TAMBOUR BAY BUOY 29.08N 90.87W
07/13/2019                   GMZ550             LA   MESONET

            AN AUTOMATED SITE NEAR CAILLOU BAY HAS BEEN REPORTING
            SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SINCE AROUND 3 AM
            CDT. HIGHEST WIND SO FAR IS 62MPH/54KTS AT 330 AM CDT.
            ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS 3M.

0355 AM     TROPICAL STORM   2 E GALLIANO            29.43N 90.26W
07/13/2019                   LAFOURCHE          LA   AWOS

            THE FAA AWOS AT GALLIANO HAS BEEN REPORTING OCCASIONAL
            TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS SINCE AROUND 230AM CDT.
            HIGHEST GUST SO FAR IS 47MPH/41KTS AT 355AM CDT.
            ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS 10M.

0435 AM     TROPICAL STORM   31 E VENICE             29.30N 88.84W
07/13/2019                   GMZ555             LA   AWOS

            THE MAIN PASS 140B AWOS REPORTED FREQUENT TROPICAL STORM
            FORCE GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT REPORTED A FEW HOURS OF
            SUSTAINED TROPCIAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM 4A-6A CDT THIS
            MORNING. HIGHEST GUST SO FAR IS 62MPH/54KTS AT 435AM CDT
            THIS MORNING. ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS 85M.

0547 AM     TROPICAL STORM   3 E HOUMA               29.57N 90.66W
07/13/2019                   TERREBONNE         LA   AWOS

            THE FAA AWOS AT HOUMA HAS BEEN REPORTING OCCASIONAL
            SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SINCE AROUND 4AM
            CDT. HIGHEST GUST SO FAR IS 59MPH/51KTS AT 547AM CDT.
            ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS 10M.

&&

DMANNING