Wind Advisory 3, NWS Lake Charles, LA

302 
WWUS74 KLCH 182143
NPWLCH

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
343 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

.Winds have been tapering off this afternoon and a Wind Advisory
is no longer needed.

LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ215-216-182245-
/O.CAN.KLCH.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190219T0000Z/
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Jefferson-Orange-
Including the cities of Lake Charles, Sulphur, Hathaway, 
Jennings, Topsy, Roanoke, Welsh, Lake Arthur, Crowley, Rayne, 
Branch, Church Point, Richard, Lafayette, Breaux Bridge, Cade, 
St. Martinville, Abbeville, Intracoastal City, Meaux, 
Forked Island, Kaplan, New Iberia, Morgan City, Burns Point, 
Centerville, Franklin, Patterson, Berwick, Bayou Vista, 
Stephensville, Hackberry, Johnson Bayou, Grand Lake, Klondike, 
Cameron, Creole, Grand Chenier, Rutherford Beach, Beaumont, 
Sabine Pass, Sea Rim State Park, Orange, Vidor, and Bridge City
343 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has cancelled the
Wind Advisory. 

Winds have been tapering off this afternoon and a Wind Advisory
is no longer needed.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1014 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

.UPDATE...
The cold front that moved through yesterday brought a cool start
to the day today as temperatures were in the low to mid 40s. Over
the past weekend morning lows were in the 60s... now that is a
change. Today will see brisk winds arcoss the area and into the
coastal waters as Canadian air spills down the east side of the
rockies and into the central US.

This latest front in the central gulf will lift back to the north
as a sfc low forms along this boundary. This is going to happen
late this eve and through the overnight hours. The low is going to
assist lifting gulf moisture to rise up and over the front with
rains developing over the region. Once the rains set up they will
persist on and off through most of this week. Weather looks to be
dreary this forecast cycle. Also the ground remains saturated and
any rains will spill back into creeks and bayous including low
lying areas this will cause some issues in lower areas and some
minor flooding in other areas.Current zones are fine no updates
planned.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 521 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...
For the 18/12Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION...
Cold front has pushed out into the northwest Gulf leaving
blustery northeast winds with gusts between 20 and 25 knots
expected during the period. Active sub-tropical jet will allow
relatively warmer and moist air to over-ride the cooler surface
air which will result in extensive middle and upper level clouds
today. However, ceilings will remain at VFR levels. Overnight,
clouds are expected to lower to MVFR levels for
KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA terminals with a few showers developing as
cold front begins to lift back north as a warm front and nears the
coast.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Today...

This morning's surface analysis shows high pressure building in
behind the cold front that moved through the region during the day
yesterday. This area of high pressure will result in dry
conditions today. Northeast winds will result in cold air
advection across the entire region throughout the day. However,
breaks in the cloud cover should allow for temperatures to climb
to near 60 during the day today.

Long Term...Tonight through Sunday...

A wet weather pattern is forecast through much of the upcoming
week with a trough axis centered over the southwest CONUS and a
ridge centered over the Bahamas. The height pattern will be very
amplified with magnitude of the standardized anomalies of the 500
hPa heights of both these features exceeding 2 sigma. This will
result in an atmospheric river developing over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley which will transport tropical moisture
from the eastern Pacific and Caribbean over the region during the
upcoming week. Due to this prolonged moisture transport, PWAT
values are forecast to be near record values for the month of
February (per the SPC sounding climatology) during much of the
long term period.

While the long wave trough will be centered over the SW CONUS
during this time frame, two main shortwaves are forecast to rotate
around the base of the trough bringing the highest and most
widespread rainfall chances. The first shortwave will eject from
the base of the trough and lift northeastward during the day on
Tuesday. This will support the deepening of a surface low over the
W Gulf of Mexico which will lift northeastward tonight into
Wednesday. This will result in showers and thunderstorms
overspreading the region beginning late tonight and continuing
through Wednesday.The best synoptic setup for heavy rainfall
during this time is expected to be north of the region near the
Tennessee Valley. However, given the abundant deep layer moisture
and a favorable environment for ascent, WPC still has the CWA
highlighted with a 5%-10% chance of flash flooding occurring from
Tuesday into Wednesday.

In addition to increasing deep layer moisture, the return flow is
expected to contribute to at least some weak destabilization
across the CWA on Tuesday. 0-6 km shear in excess of 50 knots will
support the potential for organized to convection to develop
embedded with in the showers and possibly form a squall line.
Therefore, SPC is forecasting a Marginal Risk of severe weather
across much of the region from Tuesday into Wednesday. The main
hazard will be a few damaging wind gusts.

The atmospheric river will continue to produce showers across the
region until the second main shortwave trough is expected to
eject across the central Plains on Saturday. This will support lee
cyclogenesis and a stronger surface low on Saturday. The surface
cold front associated with this low is forecast to move through
the region late Saturday into Sunday morning. Once this front
clears the area, the upper level height pattern is expected to
become more zonal and should result in dry conditions for the
early part of next week.

MARINE...

A tight pressure gradient will result in strong winds over the
coastal waters today into Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains
in effect for the entire coastal waters through 6 AM Tuesday and
may need to be extended through Tuesday afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop over the coastal
waters later this evening as an area of low pressure develops over
the western Gulf. This will result in NE winds becoming easterly
and eventually southerly by late Tuesday. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will linger through Saturday as a surface front
meanders across the coastal waters. By Saturday, another area of
low pressure will push through the coastal waters and possibly
resulting in another period of Small Craft Exercise Caution or
Advisory conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  57  44  60  52 /   0  70  80  80
LCH  59  50  69  60 /   0  60  70  70
LFT  60  51  71  65 /   0  50  50  70
BPT  60  50  67  55 /   0  70  80  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ430-432-435-
     450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

PUBLIC...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
338 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-190945-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
338 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will develop late tonight
as an area of low pressure approaches the region. The main hazard
from any thunderstorms that do develop will be cloud to ground
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday through Saturday. The
main hazards from any thunderstorms will be cloud to ground
lightning and locally heavy rainfall. There is a marginal risk of
flash flooding for the entire area from Tuesday morning through
Wednesday morning.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with a squall line
that will move across the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning. The main hazard in addition to lightning will be damaging
winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-190945-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
338 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two will develop
over the coastal waters tonight. The primary hazard from any
thunderstorm that does develop will be cloud to water lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible over the coastal waters each day
Tuesday through Saturday. The primary hazard from these
thunderstorms will be cloud to water lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.