Wind Advisory 10, NWS Lake Charles, LA

533 
WWUS74 KLCH 302359
NPWLCH

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
659 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ215-216-010100-
/O.EXP.KLCH.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-190501T0000Z/
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Jefferson-Orange-
Including the cities of Lake Charles, Sulphur, Hathaway, 
Jennings, Topsy, Roanoke, Welsh, Lake Arthur, Crowley, Rayne, 
Branch, Church Point, Richard, Lafayette, Breaux Bridge, Cade, 
St. Martinville, Abbeville, Intracoastal City, Meaux, 
Forked Island, Kaplan, New Iberia, Morgan City, Burns Point, 
Centerville, Franklin, Patterson, Berwick, Bayou Vista, 
Stephensville, Hackberry, Johnson Bayou, Grand Lake, Klondike, 
Cameron, Creole, Grand Chenier, Rutherford Beach, Beaumont, 
Sabine Pass, Sea Rim State Park, Orange, Vidor, and Bridge City
659 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

Southeast winds will remain elevated and gusty at times through
this evening, especially across East Texas and coastal Southwest
Louisiana, but sustained speeds are expected to continue dropping 
below advisory criteria over the next hour, so the advisory is
being allowed to expire on schedule. 

$$

13

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1055 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.UPDATE...
Winds down along the coast remain brisk from the interaction
between a low ovr Texas and high pres to the east this am. Thru
the rest of the day... skies will rmn sunny w/ southerly winds.
Temps are xpcd to climb into the lower 80s inld but will be a bit
cooler at the beaches.

During the last 24 hrs the moisture depth has climbed as the warm
nose aloft has cooled. As a result... clouds have been on the
increase and this will cont thru the rest of the week and into the
weekend ahead of a series of upr lvl impulses. These impulses and
the moisture will help to generate isolated showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday incrg slwly into Friday. Best chances of
rains come on Saturday... thereafter chances began to wane.
Current zones are fine no updates are planned.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 656 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019/

DISCUSSION...
For 12z TAF issuance.

AVIATION...
Sfc obs/satellite imagery show MVFR ceilings gradually spreading
from west-to-east across mainly the srn terminals although some
lower clouds could begin impacting KAEX shortly. Otherwise
forecast time-height sections indicate ceilings should be rising
somewhat as move through the morning hours. Main story looks to be
the gusty srly winds with a tight gradient in place and elevated
winds aloft mixing down. Could be a few showers around the area
mainly this morning, but not enough confidence in widespread
coverage to warrant a mention at this time at any of the sites.
Forecast soundings indicate ceilings lowering again tonight with
conditions maybe as far down as IFR. Srly winds are progged to
remain elevated compared to nighttime climo.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019/

SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will remain nearly stationary west and north of
the forecast area from West Texas across the Southern Plains into
the mid-Mississippi Valley for the next few days. This will keep
warm and breezy conditions with the possibility of a few light
showers. Rain chances will increase late in the week through
Saturday as an upper level disturbance helps push the stalled
frontal system down across the forecast area.

Rua

DISCUSSION...
a warm and humid start to the day as temperatures and dew points
have stayed in mainly in the 70s through the night. This is due to
the gradient between a high pressure system around Florida and a
low over eastern Oklahoma keeping south winds up. With this a few
light streamer showers are also showing up on radar across
portions of southeast Texas.

Not much change is seen in the weather pattern over the next few
days as a surface frontal system will remain well to the west and
north of the forecast area, keeping most of the convection away
from the forecast area also, except for a few light streamer
showers.

By Thursday, rain chances begin to increase across the far
northern sections of the forecast area, as surface front sags a
bit to the south.

Best chance for rain during this forecast period will be late
Friday night into Saturday. Short wave moving across the central
part of the country will deepen by the end of the week, and this
will push the frontal boundary down and across the forecast area.
Plenty of moisture will be in place for the frontal lift to allow
for widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to develop.

Some differences on how far the frontal system will push through
the forecast area by Sunday, or if it stalls over the area keeping
the chance for showers. At this point will keep the chance for
showers into Sunday and Monday as national and super blend keep
rain chances in play.

Rua

MARINE...
Gradient between high pressure off the east coast of Florida and
low pressure over the Southern Plains will keep very breezy
southerly winds over the coastal waters over the next couple of
days. Southeast winds are expected to be around 20 knots through
the afternoon, therefore will continue the small craft advisory
through 30/21Z.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  86  69  85  69 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  82  72  83  72 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  85  71  85  71 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  82  72  82  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

PUBLIC...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
355 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
011100-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
355 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Showers and thunderstorms will be increasing by the end of the
week into the weekend, with the best chance from late Friday night
into Saturday. Some of the storms may produce locally heavy
rainfall. Also, frequent cloud to ground lightning will be
possible with the storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-011100-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
355 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Very breezy and gusty south winds will occur over the coastal
waters today with a small craft advisory through the afternoon
hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Gusty and moderate south winds will continue into Wednesday, then
increasing again early next week with the possibility of at-least
small craft exercise caution conditions. Showers and thunderstorms
will be increasing by late in the week into Saturday. Frequent
cloud to water lightning will be possible with the storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.