Tornado Warning 54, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
540 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

.AVIATION...

Overall, meteorological reasoning remains unchanged from the
previous TAF package with only minor changes made to the short
term period to better reflect current conditions. MVFR ceilings
will persist through the morning as showers begin to develop.
Enough instability is expected by mid-morning to allow for
thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of an approaching cold
front. These thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread
during the afternoon and some will be strong to severe with
strong, gusty winds. TEMPO groups remain relatively unchanged and
reflect the most likely timing of the strongest storms and frontal
passage. Behind the front, gusty northwesterly winds will develop
and continue through Tuesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...
A weak low pressure area is attempting to form in northeast Texas
early this morning, with a cold front extending southwest across
Texas and a warm front extending northeast across Arkansas. All of
our region is in the warm sector, with temperatures in the upper
60s to lower 70s. As the front approaches our region later this
morning, storms are expected to become better organized into
lines, and SPC has outlined all of our region in some threat of
severe storms, from a marginal risk in southeast Texas, to a
slight risk in parts of southwest Louisiana, to an elevated risk
for parts of central and south central Louisiana. This is a
climatological favored time of year for severe storms, so
everyone should stay alert for weather warnings today. The threat
for severe storms will decrease as the front passes though, so by
this afternoon the threat will be diminished in southeast Texas,
and diminish in western Louisiana by mid afternoon, and parts of
central and south central Louisiana by early this evening.

Breezy and mild temperatures are expected today, but it will cool
off 25 to 35 degrees behind the front. By Tuesday morning, lows
should be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs Tuesday will only
be in the 50s. A light freeze is expected both Wednesday morning
and Thursday morning for most of central Louisiana, and could
extend down close to parts of the I-10 corridor Wednesday morning.

The next threat for rain will be Friday or Friday night, but this
far out it looks to be a low threat.

MARINE...
Onshore flow increases this afternoon and have a small craft
advisory for the outer waters. Behind the front tonight into
Tuesday, northerly wind gusts approach gale criteria before
weakening by Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  38  52  29 /  90  40   0   0
LCH  78  42  54  34 /  90  50   0   0
LFT  79  44  53  34 /  90  90  10   0
BPT  77  40  53  35 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from this evening through Tuesday afternoon for
     GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ470-472-
     475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ430-432-435.

&&

AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
348 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
162200-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
348 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Strong to severe storms are possible today as a cold front
approaches the region. Damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated
tornado are the primary hazards. The threat will diminish as the
cold front passes the region later this afternoon and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday
A light freeze is expected Wednesday morning for central
Louisiana, extending as far south as parts of the I-10 corridor.
Another light freeze is expected Thursday morning in central
Louisiana.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be necessary today.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-162200-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
348 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Gulf of
Mexico and the coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
A small craft advisory is in effect today for strong onshore flow
for the outer coastal waters. A gale watch is in effect for wind
gusts of 35 knots or stronger tonight. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected today until the cold front moves out of the region
later tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday
A gale watch continues for Tuesday, but winds are expected to
decrease by Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be necessary today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
941 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

LAZ030-TXZ259>262-161630-
Beauregard LA-Southern Newton TX-Northern Newton TX-
Southern Jasper TX-Northern Jasper TX-
941 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH...
SOUTHERN NEWTON AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM CST...

At 940 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wrights Settlement, or near Buna, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Merryville, Call, Bon Weir, Buna, Deridder, Trout Creek, Bivens, Old
Salem, Wrights Settlement, Devils Pocket, Bancroft, Junction and
Bleakwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3059 9394 3065 9387 3085 9371 3086 9331
      3040 9370 3040 9375 3037 9376 3037 9404
TIME...MOT...LOC 1540Z 214DEG 39KT 3047 9387

K. Kuyper