Tornado Warning 15, NWS Lake Charles, LA

865 
WWUS54 KLCH 040711
SVSLCH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
211 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

LAC113-040720-
/O.CAN.KLCH.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190504T0730Z/
Vermilion LA-
211 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN VERMILION PARISH IS
CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3011 9253 3011 9254 3012 9256 3010 9257
      3010 9260 3017 9269 3027 9261 3037 9252
      3018 9233 3008 9250
TIME...MOT...LOC 0710Z 223DEG 15KT 3017 9256 

$$

LAC001-053-040730-
/O.CON.KLCH.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190504T0730Z/
Jefferson Davis LA-Acadia LA-
211 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL JEFFERSON DAVIS AND SOUTHWESTERN ACADIA PARISHES...
    
At 210 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Mermentau, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Evangeline around 225 AM CDT.
  Crowley, Iota and Egan around 230 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Estherwood and Midland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3011 9253 3011 9254 3012 9256 3010 9257
      3010 9260 3017 9269 3027 9261 3037 9252
      3018 9233 3008 9250
TIME...MOT...LOC 0710Z 223DEG 15KT 3017 9256 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

13

161 
WWUS54 KLCH 040726
SVSLCH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
226 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

LAC001-053-040736-
/O.EXP.KLCH.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190504T0730Z/
Jefferson Davis LA-Acadia LA-
226 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON DAVIS AND
SOUTHWESTERN ACADIA PARISHES WILL EXPIRE AT 230 AM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3011 9253 3011 9254 3012 9256 3010 9257
      3010 9260 3017 9269 3027 9261 3037 9252
      3018 9233 3008 9250
TIME...MOT...LOC 0726Z 229DEG 10KT 3018 9254 

$$

13

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1041 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

.DISCUSSION...No changes to forecast. Organized convection now
advancing across southeast Texas. Extrapolation brings rains into
the western portion of the forecast area around 1 AM and will
overspread the entire area as the night progresses. Categorical
pops in place. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for our interior
southeast Texas counties.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019/

DISCUSSION...
For 00z TAF issuance.

AVIATION...
Interesting set of TAFs this go round. In the initial, VFR
conditions prevail across the terminals, while light rain
continues to approach KAEX ahead of convection hugging the Sabine
valley...did include a TEMPO group with lower visibility/ceilings
for the first couple of hours in case convection eventually makes
it into the airspace. Thereafter, forecast soundings all indicate
lower (MVFR or lower) ceilings developing across the region. After
a lull in precip, the primary convection associated with an
advancing shortwave is expected to begin developing over the wrn
areas late tonight, gradually sweeping ewd across the remainder of
the area in the post-dawn hours Saturday.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows weak high pressure ridge over the Northern Gulf,
keeping southeast winds over the region. Satellite and sfc
observations show mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions across the
area. Despite this, afternoon temps managed to reach the lower to
mid 80s. Radar showing the persistent complex of thunderstorms
just west of the area continuing to move slowly eastward. This
mesoscale convective complex has yielded severe thunderstorms over
Houston's area of responsibility for most of the late morning and
afternoon hours. A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms continues
for our region of SE TX for later this afternoon and overnight
hours as this system edges closer to us.

The mid to upper level shortwave will continue moving slowly
across the region tonight into Saturday. Because of the abundant
moisture and thunderstorms already beginning across SE TX north
of I-10, coordination with Houston and Shreveport, decided to
issue a Flash Flood Watch for Hardin, Jasper, Newton, and Tyler
counties through 1 PM Saturday. Depending on radar coverage and
later model trends, this may have to be expanded southward across
SE TX, and possibly eastward into LA. For Saturday, SPC has also
expanded the Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms into C LA, SW
LA & SE TX, and the Slight Risk over SC LA.

Once the shortwave exits the region Saturday night, a weak cool
front will move through the area, with slightly drier air leading
to a slightly cooler Sunday morning, with no precipitation
expected.

Increased cloudiness associated with the next shortwave to bring
increased chances of showers and thunderstorms late Monday evening
into Tuesday. A rather unstable weather pattern possible for the
rest of next week as the region remains in the west southwest flow
aloft.

DML

MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore flow will prevail today into Saturday
until a surface front moves into the coastal waters. High chances
for showers and thunderstorms by tonight through Saturday with
this front. Mainly light and variable winds expected on Sunday as
the front dissipates. Onshore flow to return by Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  80  61  85 /  80  80  20  10
LCH  69  79  65  85 /  80  80  10  10
LFT  70  81  66  86 /  60  90  20  10
BPT  69  80  66  85 /  80  80  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for TXZ180-201-
     259>262.

GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
402 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
042115-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
402 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
A complex of showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to
move into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana this afternoon
into tonight. Locally heavy rainfall with rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour, frequent cloud to ground lightning and strong
wind gusts will be possible with stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
A flash flood watch has been issued from 1 AM Saturday morning
through Saturday evening for interior counties of southeast
Texas.

A weak cold front will push through the area Saturday accompanied
by numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could
be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts, locally heavy
rainfall with rates between 1 to 2 inches per hour, and frequent
cloud to ground lightning.

Another round of thunderstorms will be possible by late Monday
night into Tuesday. Some locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
frequent cloud to ground lightning will be possible with the
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-042115-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
402 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across
the coastal waters this afternoon with activity increasing
overnight. Locally higher winds and seas along with heavy rain and frequent
cloud to water lightning will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday.
Some of these storms will produce locally higher winds and seas,
heavy rainfall greatly reducing visibility, and frequent cloud to
water lightning.

Another round of widespread thunderstorms could be possible by
Monday night into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated.