Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
135 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for SVR Watch for this afternoon until 9 PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019/

AVIATION...Generally MVFR ceilings are expected across the region
this afternoon ahead of an approaching line of storms. Storms will
impact KBPT over the few hours then KLFT late afternoon to early
evening. Gusty winds and low vis in +TSRA is expected. IFR
conditions are expected tonight behind the line with a gradual
improvement tomorrow morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1007 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019/

UPDATE...
System continues to evolve over Texas this morning. A watch has
been posted to the west as storms extend from Brownsville north
into a surface low near Bryan then northeast across SHV. This
whole system is being supported by moisture getting pulled in
from the gulf and upper lvl energy swinging in fm the west.
Sounding data from KLCH this am has precip water about 1.5 inches
near the daily max... MU Cape 2841 j/kg w/ a warm nose aloft from
850 through 700 mb.... LI's around -9. There will be a threat of
severe storms this afternoon into the evening hours as the bndry
movs east through se Tx and finally into srn La today. The main
threat will be from hail... winds... and isolated tornado's. In
addition... slower movg storms will produce copious amounts of
rains which can and would cause issues w/ minor flooding as the
ground remains saturated over se Tx and srn La from recent rains.
Current zones look fine.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019/

AVIATION...

IFR/MVFR stratus will continue through early afternoon before a
line of thunderstorms approaches from the west. Currently, the
line of thunderstorms is expected to impact area TAF sites as
follows: KBPT from 18Z-21Z, KLCH from 19Z-22Z, KAEX/KARA/KLFT from
roughly 21Z-00Z. Stronger thunderstorms within the line will be
capable of winds 25-30 knots sustained with gusts over 30-35 knots
possible. -SHRA will likely linger through 06Z before dissipating,
but IFR ceilings will continue through the overnight hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 517 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Warm overnight as temperatures have held in the lower
to middle 70s under a blanket of clouds and steady southerly
winds. Patchy light fog once again has formed over the area
although visibilities are higher due to increased winds.

A deepening upper level trough is continuing to target southeast
Texas and southwest Louisiana today through tonight. At the
surface...a surface low is expected to develop along the central
Texas coast and move northeast into southeast Texas tonight.

A large Mesoscale Convective System is expected to develop this
morning across the Texas coast and move up into southeast Texas
later this morning and into southwest Louisiana this afternoon.
A two prong threat for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding is
possible for the area. SPC has placed us in a slight risk for
severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
tornadoes possible today and tonight. In addition, Precipitable
Water values will increase to near 2 inches in the atmospheric
column across the area. Deep moisture will be in place for flash
flooding to occur where training of cells develop and where
saturated soils can no longer hold addition water. HPC indicates
rainfall rates could exceed 2-3 inches an hour in the approaching
MCS system. Even after the initial line moves through, additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity
of the trough early tonight.

A Flash Flood watch has been issued for the area today and tonight
to account for recent heavy flooding rains and saturated soils.

Drier air will filter into the area Monday as the passing surface
low and cold front finally moves through. Stable dry conditions
are expected through mid week before the next upper level trough
digs into the Colorado Rockies and New Mexico. Upper level flow
will return to the southwest and surface southerly flow will draw
the moisture back in for rains to return in earnest next weekend.

MARINE...
Patchy fog this morning along the nearshore waters will dissipate
by noontime. Periods of moderate southerly winds will continue today
ahead of a series of disturbances that will move through. These
disturbances will bring periods of showers and strong thunderstorms
before a cold front finally pushes off the coast early Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  61  75  56  81 /  80  50  30  10
LCH  64  78  59  81 /  70  20  20  10
LFT  66  78  61  80 /  80  30  20  10
BPT  62  78  59  81 /  70  20  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ052-
     073-074.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ215.

GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
544 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
081045-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
544 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Storms will be on the increase as the combination of an upper
level low approaching southeast Texas and a developing surface
low over coastal Texas trigger possible severe weather. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning,
damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. In
addition...a Flash Flood Watch has been issued to account for the
saturated soil in place and probable 2-3 inch rainfall rates that
will likely occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Showers and thunderstorms will taper off Monday as dry air filters
in behind a weak cool front. Stable and mostly dry weather is
expected through the rest of the week with a return of rain on
Saturday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-081045-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
544 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Patchy fog will dissipate by noon. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop today and into tonight as a storm system moves in the
area. Strong thunderstorms are possible with frequent lightning
and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Storms will come to an end during the day Monday as a cool front
pushes through and drier air filters in. The rest of the week
looks mostly dry with rain returning next weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
327 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 5 S GROVES              29.88N 93.91W
04/07/2019  M40 MPH          JEFFERSON          TX   PUBLIC

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION ALONG SABINE LAKE MEASURED WIND
            GUST TO 35KTS. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

SWARTHEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
328 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

LAZ030>032-041>043-074-072115-
Calcasieu LA-Acadia LA-Jefferson Davis LA-Evangeline LA-Allen LA-
Beauregard LA-East Cameron LA-
328 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CAMERON...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...EASTERN BEAUREGARD...WESTERN EVANGELINE...WESTERN ACADIA...
EASTERN CALCASIEU AND ALLEN PARISHES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 328 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Longville to 6 miles northwest of Creole.
Movement was east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Charles, Jennings, Oakdale, Westlake, Welsh, Iowa, Lake Arthur,
Kinder, Basile, Oberlin, Elton, Mermentau, Elizabeth, Fenton, Reeves,
Hayes, Moss Bluff, Lacassine National Wildlife Refuge, Mittie and Dry
Creek.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
central and southwestern Louisiana.

LAT...LON 2978 9321 3077 9333 3090 9262 3089 9251
      3011 9254 3009 9263 3004 9272 3004 9262
      3002 9262 2977 9317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 256DEG 18KT 3065 9317 2988 9317

Tingler

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
333 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S CARLYSS             30.13N 93.38W
04/07/2019  M61 MPH          CALCASIEU          LA   ASOS

            WIND GUST OF 53KTS REPORTED AT SOUTHLAND FIELD AIRPORT
            ASOS - KUXL.

&&

SWARTHEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
348 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE VIDOR              30.12N 93.99W
04/07/2019                   ORANGE             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER SENT PICTURES OF ROAD CLOSED DUE TO
            DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. LOCATION AROUND THE 1100
            BLOCK OF CONCORD STREET IN VIDOR. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

SWARTHEN