Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
615 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019

.AVIATION...Areas of rain with scattered storms are over the
region this morning, however minimal impact is occurring around
the terminals at the current time. This will change as the morning
progresses and coverage increases. Storms will remain in vicinity
through the day with periodic lower vis and ceilings possible.
Conditions will improved this evening with the decrease in diurnal
heating and a decrease in coverage. Winds will generally light
and southwest during the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term [Today through Wednesday]

GOES 16 upper level water vapor imagery indicates a trough
digging into the Mississippi River Valley this morning. At the
surface, a cold front extended from the Great Lakes southwestward
into Central Oklahoma. Both of these features are expected to
continue pushing into the lower portions of the Mississippi River
Valley and into the CWA today. Both the 00Z KLCH sounding and
satellite observations indicate that PWATs across the CWA are
sitting around 2". The combination of surface and upper level
support for ascent with this deep layer moisture will result in
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region today.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any of the stronger
showers and thunderstorms. As a result, WPC has highlighted the
entire area in a Marginal Risk for flash flooding.

Convection is expected to decrease in coverage with the loss of
daytime heating at sunset. However, the combination of the upper
level trough, associated surface front, and PWATs of 1.5"-2" will
persist through tonight and into Wednesday. Therefore, slight
chance PoPs were keep through the entire overnight period. Daytime
heating during the day Wednesday will likely result in another
round of numerous showers and thunderstorms from mid-morning into
the early evening hours. Convection should then dissipate by late
Wednesday evening.

Long Term [Thursday through Tuesday]

Model guidance is in general agreement that an amplified upper
level height pattern will be in place across the CONUS with a
trough axis centered along the Appalachians and a ridge axis over
the Rockies. The CWA is forecast to be squished between these two
features through the weekend. While this will result in some upper
level subsidence over the region, PWAT values are forecast to
remain near to slightly above normal. Therefore, convection will
become less widespread on Thursday but the typical summertime
diurnal pattern of convection will continue through the weekend.

There are some indications that early next week the trough axis
will retrograde back towards the region as a shortwave digs
southward from the Canadian Prairies. This could potentially
support increasing chances for convection during the early to
middle part of next week. However, the is a fair amount of
amplitude uncertainty in the trough during this time frame. For
now, maintained climatological PoPs for the later half of the
forecast and will wait to see if a better consensus develops with
respect to the evolution of the upper level trough early next
week.

MARINE...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, mainly from mid
morning onward as an upper level trough moves over the region.
Severe weather is not expected and the main threat from any
thunderstorms will be cloud to water lightning and gusty winds.
The upper level trough will remain over the region for much of the
upcoming week. As a result, there will be daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms, mainly late at night into the morning
hours. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient is expected to remain weak
over the coastal waters. This will cause winds and seas to be
light through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  71  89  72 /  70  30  40  10
LCH  86  74  88  73 /  70  30  60  20
LFT  85  72  88  73 /  70  20  60  20
BPT  88  75  88  75 /  70  30  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
333 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-310845-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
333 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region
today. Severe weather is not expected and the main threat from
thunderstorms will be cloud to ground lightning. In addition to
lightning, locally heavy rainfall will be possible and could result
in isolated flooding today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered to numerous showers or thunderstorms can be expected
again Wednesday before coverage begins tapering downward through the
weekend. No severe weather is expected but some storms are expected
to produce locally heavy rain and frequent cloud to ground
lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-310845-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
333 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, mainly from mid
morning through the rest of today and tonight. Severe
weather is not expected and the main threat from any thunderstorms
will be cloud to water lightning and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through much of the
period, especially late at night and in the early morning. Severe
weather is not expected and the main threat from any thunderstorms
will be cloud to water lightning and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.