Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
633 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

.AVIATION...An area of low pressure will traverse the region
through Thursday morning creating lower ceilings and visibilities.
Widespread rain can be expected through the night along with a
few embedded thunderstorms. Winds will veer southwest as the low
passes and they will be gusty at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 510 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Shortwave trof and attendant weak SFC low along the middle to
upper TX coast progged to lift slowly out TWD the NE tonight into
THU ahead of an upper low translating E across N TX and OK.
30-40KT LLJ will continue to feed plume of deep tropical moisture
characterized by PWATs of 2-2.5" into the region. Widespread
light/moderate rains with heavier embedded convective cells are
expected to continue this evening.

There remains some spread/mixed signals in guidance regarding
overall EWD progression of rainfall along with possible
expansion/new development tonight into THU, so opted to leave the
FFA as is for now given the overall synoptic setup though some
thought was given to trimming it down a bit over E TX. Forecast
rainfall amounts thus far remain reasonably on track, with the
lack of flooding observed in most areas thus far a consequence of
the relatively slow and steady rates. Deeper MSTR progged to shift
E by THU afternoon, which will in turn nudge the risk of flooding
more TWD SE LA. Elevated rain chances will persist, however,
through SAT as the aforementioned upper low creeps E across AR and
into TN.

Drier air filtering south on the back side of the weakening low
will help start to dry us out on SUN, with a cool front late MON
yielding a drier and cooler TUE-WED period.

Tides along the coast continue to run around 1-1.5 feet above
predicted astronomical tides, which could result in minor/nuisance
flooding at the time of high tide. This will persist through the
high tide cycle on THU amid modest S/SE onshore flow, with this
flow decreasing in magnitude and gaining a more westerly component
FRI and into the weekend which should aid in alleviating the
above normal readings.

13

MARINE...
A weak surface low over the upper Texas coast will slowly lift
northeast tonight into Thursday. With abundant tropical moisture
over the northwest Gulf of Mexico, widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected. Moderate southerly winds and elevated
seas can be expected through Thursday. Winds and seas will subside
Friday into the the weekend.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  71  87 /  90  70  50  70
LCH  74  87  76  89 /  90  90  50  60
LFT  74  86  75  90 /  90  90  50  60
BPT  76  88  76  89 / 100  80  40  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for LAZ041-052>054-
     073-074.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for TXZ215-216.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

&&

AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
514 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
062215-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
514 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Widespread showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the
area. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect. Total rainfall amounts of
6 to 10 inches are expected along and to the south of the I-10
corridor, with amounts of 2 to 5 inches to the north. Locally
higher amounts are possible.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, with damaging
winds and isolated brief and weak tornadoes the primary hazards.

Elevated tide levels will continue to result in the potential for
minor coastal flooding. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Widespread heavy rain will taper off Thursday but showers and
thunderstorms chances will continue into Friday. Drier air will
work into the area over the weekend with a cool front passage
early Monday. Slightly cooler highs and lows can be expected
Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-062215-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
514 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Southerly winds of 15 to 25 knots, with seas of 5 to 8 feet
tonight as a surface low moves northward from the upper Texas
coast. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico
waters.

Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected.
Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of very heavy rain reducing
visibility to less than one nautical mile, locally higher winds
and seas, and possibly waterspouts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through at least
Thursday as elevated southerly winds and rough seas are expected
to persist.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the
region Thursday with a tapering off of rains late on Friday.
Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy
rainfall, as well as a few isolated waterspouts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
734 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK  29.67N 94.05W
06/05/2019  M41 MPH          GMZ450             TX   C-MAN STATION

            36 KNOTS AT SEA RIM.

&&

ATINGLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
804 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

LAZ073-074-060145-
West Cameron LA-East Cameron LA-
804 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 804 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Holly Beach, or near Johnsons Bayou, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cameron, Johnsons Bayou, Sabine National Wildlife, Hackberry, Holly
Beach and Constance Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2977 9374 3005 9350 2994 9334 2985 9335
      2987 9335 2988 9339 2986 9344 2985 9343
      2982 9335 2980 9335 2984 9332 2984 9328
      2986 9324 2981 9317 2976 9334 2979 9332
      2976 9335 2977 9348 2975 9369
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 222DEG 11KT 2980 9356

Tingler

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
846 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

LAZ073-074-060230-
West Cameron LA-East Cameron LA-
846 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CAMERON PARISH UNTIL
930 PM CDT...

At 846 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Holly Beach, or 7 miles southeast of Sabine National Wildlife, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hackberry, Heberts Marina, Holly Beach and Constance Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2981 9363 3005 9342 3005 9333 2985 9335
      2987 9335 2988 9339 2986 9344 2982 9339
      2982 9335 2980 9335 2984 9332 2986 9324
      2989 9324 2997 9327 3000 9327 2990 9316
      2976 9340 2976 9357
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 225DEG 15KT 2980 9351

Tingler