Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Local radar display shows isolated showers have tapered off across
southwest to north central NEB over the last two hours.
Otherwise, surface cold front has exited the area and now lies
roughly from west central KS to extreme south central NEB to
southeast IA. Modest north northeast winds currently in place with
gusts up to 20-25 mph. Largely dry conditions are expected rest
of today. Current thinking is storms will develop and move in from
upstream northeast CO or northwest KS into the area late this
evening/late tonight. The main area of concern is southwest NEB
into central NEB. Of which, main concerns tonight center on
potential for locally moderate to heavy rainfall there, though an
isolated strong to briefly severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out. Regarding the former, decent precipitation efficiency is
anticipated with 10-13 kft deep warm cloud depths with moderate
environment RH between 1000-500 hPa. Precipitable water percent of
normal is also 125-150% along with favorable flow. Seasonable lows
tonight will give way then to highs about 5-10 degrees cooler
tomorrow compared today outside northwest NEB and far north
central NEB.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Northwest flow prevails overhead aloft as a mid-level amplified
ridge extends from the Four Corners region into eastern Alberta
and western Saskatchewan. Surface high pressure will be evolving
across the Northern Plains Monday and will be centered over the
Middle Missouri Valley by Monday evening. Little movement with the
high through Tuesday with the surface high located over eastern
NEB early Tuesday moving east into the Lower Missouri Valley.
Overall, little change in the large scale pattern through Tuesday
with respect to the upper-level ridge. The setup will be conducive
for dry conditions and largely below-normal highs Monday and
Tuesday.

Gradual warming takes place Tuesday-Wednesday with seasonable high
temperatures in place Wednesday with the Central High Plains
influenced low-level southerly flow. The upper-level ridge is then
expected to flatten as an approaching upper-level trough tracks
east across the southern Canadian Prairies Wednesday night-Friday.
Sensible weather impacts will be low for much of the week until
Friday where low chances for thunderstorms return to western and
north central NEB. Meanwhile, a cold frontal passage is
anticipated to affect the area Friday-Friday night as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Showers and thunderstorms are developing north into southwest
Nebraska early this morning. The coverage of storms is expected to
expand, possibly impacting the KLBF terminal. Heavy rainfall is
expected with the convective activity, so in the event that a
terminal is impacted, MVFR or lower visibility will be almost
certain. Otherwise rain chances continue into the mid morning
hours with ceilings remaining at MVFR or lower through at least
18z. Further north, KVTN is forecast to remain VFR through the taf
cycle.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...Jacobs

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
447 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-212200-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
447 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019 /347 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight, mainly across
portions of southwest through central Nebraska. A strong storm or
two will be possible with hail and gusty winds the main concerns.
All thunderstorms will be capable of frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue into Sunday
morning, especially from portions of southwest into central
Nebraska. All thunderstorms will be capable of frequent lightning
and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected, however, any reports of hail,
wind, and rain will be appreciated.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Roberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
144 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

NEZ038-210730-
Custer NE-
144 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY UNTIL 230
AM CDT...

At 144 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles west of Callaway to near Litchfield.
Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Broken Bow, Callaway, Ansley, Merna, Mason City, Berwyn, Weissert,
Westerville, Milldale, Arcadia Diversion Dam State Wildlife
Management Area, Gavin Siding, Lodi, Buckeye, Pleasant Hill, Pressey
State Wildlife Management Area and Finchville.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 81 and 107.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 265 and 307.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 252 and 308.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4122 10022 4156 10011 4153 9921 4140 9921
      4139 9920 4115 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 0644Z 243DEG 20KT 4125 10007 4119 9922

Jacobs