Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1252 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

The main concerns for the next couple days will be the return of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A series of shortwaves will
move off the Rockies into western and central Nebraska on both
Wednesday and Thursday. Modest instability (afternoon CAPE values
near 2000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates across the central Sandhills
will lead to a potential for severe storms. Current SPC guidance
supports this with a marginal risk at this time. Thunderstorms will
gradually diminish overnight as the better instability moves
eastward.

A brief break in active weather is expected for Thursday morning.
Another chance of thunderstorms return for the late afternoon and
evening as another shortwave moves across the region. While the
latest SPC guidance has north central and portions of western
Nebraska outlooked in a slight risk of severe weather, current model
guidance has the most favorable instability to the east of our
forecast area (across eastern Nebraska). Current thinking is that
storms on Thursday evening will be elevated thunderstorms. These
thunderstorms, while not feeding off surface instability, will still
be capable of producing large hail (up to 1 to 2 inches) and
torrential rainfall. Will continue to monitor instability and
guidance over the next day when we will higher confidence in severe
potential.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

The active pattern will continue through the end of the week, into
the weekend, and into the beginning of next week. While confidence
is high on thunderstorm potential, confidence is low in severe risk
potential. At this time, thunderstorms appear to be diurnally driven
forming in the late afternoon and quickly dissipating over the
overnight hours. Will be keeping a eye on these systems as
confidence becomes stronger on whether severe storms will be
possible or not.

Drier weather returns on Tuesday as high pressure tries to nudge
into the region. Another chance of thunderstorms return on Tuesday
evening. Again, severe weather risk is uncertain at this time.

For temperatures, highs remain in the upper 70s to low 80s for
Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will drop into the 70s for Friday
through Sunday. A few locations across the northwest Sandhills may
even only see highs in the upper 60s. Highs return to the 80s by
next Tuesday. Low temperatures start off in the 50s for Wednesday
and Thursday nights, drop into the upper 40s and low 50s through the
weekend before rising back into the 50s for the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

VFR conditions this afternoon. South winds will gradually become
southwest this afternoon. Isolated showers or thunderstorms in the
KLBF and KVTN vicinity should move east of the terminals by 20Z.
An isolated shower or thunderstorm is still possible thereafter
into early evening. Then, overnight as slight chance for showers
and a few thundertorms mainly across north central Nebraska
including KVTN. Lower ceiings near OVC035 may occur at KVTN by 12Z
Thursday and are included in the current TAF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Roberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1114 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-201615-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1114 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 /1014 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Isolated strong to briefly severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening across western and north central
Nebraska. Gusty winds and hail up to the size of quarters would be
the threats with any severe thunderstorm. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are possible late this evening and overnight, mainly
across north central Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A few severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday night along and
north of a line from Curtis to Ogallala. Hail to the size of golf
balls and damaging winds are the main severe weather threats.

Periodic chances for thunderstorms are forecast Friday through
Tuesday. The threat for organized severe weather during this
timeframe seems low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Roberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
148 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

NEZ005-191930-
Eastern Cherry NE-
148 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM CDT...

At 146 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Valentine, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wood Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 203 and 222.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 202 and 203.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in North Platte.

&&

LAT...LON 4281 10020 4278 10020 4278 10018 4268 10018
      4253 10031 4275 10055 4285 10046
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 297DEG 7KT 4277 10046

Jurgensen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

NEZ005-008-192030-
Brown NE-Eastern Cherry NE-
249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHERRY AND NORTHWESTERN
BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 247 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wood Lake, or 11 miles northwest of Johnstown, moving southeast at
15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Johnstown, Wood Lake and Antelope Peak.

This includes Highway 20 between mile markers 215 and 238.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in North Platte.

&&

LAT...LON 4266 10037 4276 10029 4265 9987 4243 10004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 306DEG 13KT 4267 10025

Roberg