Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
307 PM CDT Sat May 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat May 4 2019

Lapse rates are fairly steep this afternoon given the fact that
showers and thunderstorms developed by mid morning. The models
continue to advertise modest shear and CAPE with 500mb winds around
30-35kts and MLCAPE values between 1500 and 2000 J/KG. The HRRR
suggests hail as the primary threat late this afternoon and this
evening as strong wind gusts are absent in the model until the storm
activity moves east into central Nebraska.

The next rain chance develops Sunday evening. By this time, wrn and
ncntl Nebraska are in a post-frontal environment and northwest flow
aloft is underway. Still, the NAM indicates elevated CAPE, steep
lapse rates and some level of potential for large hail. SPC suggests
a marginal severe weather threat but the NAM model-derived radar
product does not indicate strong convection. For this forecast, the
threat of strong or severe storms would appear to be today and
tonight only. Highest POPs for the Sunday night rain event are
centered across northern Nebraska and in the likely category.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat May 4 2019

A cool wet weather pattern sets up Monday through Saturday. The main
feature is the upper level low off the West coast which will move
east through the Central Plains and produce substantial rainfall
across wrn and ncntl Nebraska Tuesday and Wednesday. Precipitable
water approaches 1.0 inches which is about 200 percent of normal.
Once this upper level low moves east late Wednesday, a batch of cold
air from northern Canada drop south. Rain chances end, but
unseasonably cool air remains across wrn and ncntl Nebraska the rest
of the week.

The ECM which was the coolest model has warmed slightly and this
morning's run has backed off on accumulating snow across wrn
Nebraska Wednesday night. The forecast continues a chance of snow in
that area as temperatures aloft will support the changeover.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat May 4 2019

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through early Sunday
morning. Concerns in the forecast period include development of
isolated convection generally along a KIML to KLBF to KBBW line
around 05/20z. Confidence in any direct impact to a TAF site is
low thus will leave as VCSH for now at KLBF with possible
amendments later. A frontal boundary will move through the area
early Sunday morning, bringing a wind shift to the north and IFR
ceilings to KVTN around sunrise with improvement towards the end
of the TAF period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Jurgensen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
332 PM CDT Sat May 4 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-052045-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
332 PM CDT Sat May 4 2019 /232 PM MDT Sat May 4 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Isolated strong and possibly severe thunderstorms are likely this
evening, mainly affecting Holt, Custer, Garfield and Wheeler
counties. Large hail is primary severe weather hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Sunday night. A few strong or
severe storms are possible, mainly from Imperial northeast through
Stapleton and Bartlett, including areas to the east. Large hail
is the severe weather threat.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible again Monday across most of
north central and western Nebraska. However, the risk of severe
weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight, though
any storm reports are appreciated.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
253 PM CDT Sat May 4 2019

NEZ059-042045-
Lincoln NE-
253 PM CDT Sat May 4 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 253 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
North Platte Airport, or 9 miles east of North Platte, moving east at
15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Maxwell, North Platte Airport and Keith.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 183 and 187.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 93 and 94.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4108 10067 4126 10068 4133 10024 4128 10023
      4105 10024 4104 10023 4102 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 265DEG 15KT 4117 10059

Jurgensen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
306 PM CDT Sat May 4 2019

NEZ008-009-026-027-042045-
Brown NE-Loup NE-Rock NE-Blaine NE-
306 PM CDT Sat May 4 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ROCK...NORTHERN LOUP...
SOUTHEASTERN BROWN AND NORTHEASTERN BLAINE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
CDT...

At 305 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Brewster, moving east at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brewster, Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area, Rose, Fox Bayou,
Duff, Almeria Meadow State Wildlife Management Area, Horseshoe Bend
Lake, Hannamon Bayou Campground, Nunda Shoal Campground, Valley View
Flat Campground and Johnsons Corner.

This includes Highway 183 between mile markers 131 and 156.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4194 9992 4222 9978 4220 9923 4209 9924
      4208 9922 4185 9922
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 273DEG 20KT 4203 9974

Jurgensen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
334 PM CDT Sat May 4 2019

NEZ038-059-042115-
Custer NE-Lincoln NE-
334 PM CDT Sat May 4 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 334 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Brady, or 20 miles east of North Platte, moving east
at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Etna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4109 10045 4123 10043 4127 9986 4105 9991
      4105 10022 4101 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 271DEG 18KT 4115 10037

Jurgensen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
400 PM CDT Sat May 4 2019

NEZ027-028-038-042145-
Loup NE-Custer NE-Garfield NE-
400 PM CDT Sat May 4 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LOUP...GARFIELD AND
NORTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 359 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Taylor, moving east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burwell, Taylor, Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area, Virginia
Smith Dam, Hannamon Bayou Campground, Kent Diversion Dam State
Wildlife Management Area, Homestead Knolls Campground, Horseshoe Bend
Lake, Almeria, Nunda Shoal Campground, Deverre, Valley View Flat
Campground and Gables.

This includes Highway 183 between mile markers 124 and 142.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 9909 4173 9922 4182 9957 4201 9957
      4206 9881 4174 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 268DEG 31KT 4191 9947

Jurgensen

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
401 PM CDT SAT MAY 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     HAIL             3 S ONEILL              42.41N 98.65W
05/04/2019  E1.00 INCH       HOLT               NE   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JURGENSEN

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