Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1253 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

The NAM and GFS are coming in colder with rain and snow Monday
afternoon affecting the Panhandle and the western Sandhills. The
forecast respects this trend in the models and temperatures in the
upper 30s to lower 40s are in place Monday. A high threshold, 40F,
was used for all rain with a rain-snow mix in place for temperatures
in the 30s. Later forecasts can dial in cooler temperatures Monday
if the models continue consistent with this cold trend and mostly
snow as the precipitation type.

Otherwise the forecast uses the previous forecast plus the RAP
model, the HRRR model, the model blend plus bias correction for
highs in the 60s to lower 70s today and lows in the upper 20s to 30s
tonight. A blizzard will operate across MT today and this storm
system will pull down some late season cold air from Canada. Given
the warm ground with temperatures in the 50s at the 4-inch soil
depth, this cold air should undergo modest modification tonight. Not
sure upper 20s can develop across northwest Nebraska tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across swrn Nebraska this
afternoon and this evening. The RAP model suggested about 1500 J/KG
of MLCAPE and 50kt of bulk shear which produces a bulk Richardson
number between 15 and 25. An isolated supercell may develop.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

The storm system Monday night and Tuesday is on track to produce a
few inches of wet snow. The snow-to-water ratios were marked down to
around 6 to 1 to account for melting. We should see convectively
enhanced bands of snow lifting east northeast through the Panhandle.
The classic PV1.5 anomaly is absent with this storm system. Thus,
only weak cyclogenesis is expected. The latest snow forecast is
close to, but less than the WPC guidance which suggested 4 to less
than 6 inches of snowfall.

Another snow chance develops Tuesday night with a weak disturbance
crossing the central Plains. The models are holding back a portion
of the upper low across WY. This is expected to produce a period of
snow across nwrn Nebraska Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. This
system should exit the cntl Plains Wednesday night.

Warmer weather returns Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorm chances are
in place for a mostly zonal, but noisy midlevel flow pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

MVFR ceilings near and east of the KLBF and KVTN terminals will
continue to lift and move east. A cold front will move southeast
across the region this evening. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening. This
included in the KLBF terminal this evening, with only VCSH at
KVTN. Ceilings could briefly go MVFR during the cold front
passage, but to improve back to VFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Roberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1155 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-291700-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1155 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019 /1055 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop across the
western Sandhills late this afternoon and spread eastward this
evening. A few storms may be capable of producing hail and strong
winds, primarily along and south of Interstate 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Wintry precipitation will affect the region Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are likely
for parts of the panhandle and western Sandhills. Accumulations
around 1 inch are possible for southwest Nebraska and the
northern
Sandhills.

Rain will mix with or switch to snow again Tuesday night, but the
potential for additional accumulation is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Roberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
221 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2019

NEZ022-056>058-069-282100-
Deuel-Chase-Perkins-Garden-Keith-
221 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN PERKINS...
SOUTHWESTERN KEITH...NORTHWESTERN CHASE...SOUTHERN GARDEN AND DEUEL
COUNTIES...

At 221 PM MDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 8 miles north of Barton to 6 miles west
of Sedgwick to 6 miles north of Haxtun. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ogallala, Chappell, Big Springs, Brule, Venango, Lamar, Barton,
Roscoe, Wild Horse Spring, Brandon, Goldeneye State Wildlife
Management Area and Megeath.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 61 between mile markers 72 and 94.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 85 and 133.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4100 10205 4101 10253 4123 10237 4118 10155
      4040 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 280DEG 28KT 4116 10221 4093 10264 4074 10267

ET