Severe Thunderstorm Warning 250, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
633 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

The main concern this forecast period is the thunderstorm
development this afternoon and evening. This is a bit of a
challenge as the stratus cloud deck from this morning stuck around
a little longer than anticipated, and has still stuck around
southern portions of north central Nebraska. Areas stuck under the
clouds have not warmed up as much as forecast, which may hinder
development of thunderstorms in this area.

Another thing to consider is early convection across the northwest
Sandhills this morning, the original thought was the convection
would move out of the area by mid morning, this has not been the
case and convection has remained over the northwest Sandhills longer
than expected which could have an effect on thunderstorms this
afternoon.

A warm front is draped across the Sandhills from west to
east which will become the focus for most of the thunderstorm
development this afternoon and evening. A very moist airmass is in
place with dewpoints in the 60s across much of the area, along
with a southeast surface wind, CAPE values around 3000 j/kg or
greater along with deep layer shear with 0 to 3km of 250 or more
across the northern Sandhills. This area is the most favorable
area to see severe thunderstorms including the possibility of a
tornado.

Along with the severe potential there is the possibility of heavy
rainfall with these thunderstorms with pwat values over an inch.
The greatest potential for excessive rainfall will be across the
northern Sandhills, mainly north of highway 2.

Another round of thunderstorms is possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening. There is a potential for severe thunderstorms once again
as an upper level TROF moves across the area Wednesday afternoon.
The best area for severe weather will be across the Sandhills,
where the instability will be the greatest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

Cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper
60s to 70s. Temperatures will warm back up into the 80s this
weekend through early next week. Temperatures will be around 5 to
10 degrees above normal. Rain chances will be minimal from
Thursday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

Latest radar imagery shows numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the northeast Panhandle and north central Nebraska.
Thunderstorms will impact the KVTN terminal this evening and into
the overnight hours. Visibility will fall as low as 3sm and wind
gusts up to 50 kts will be possible. There is also a threat for
some hail with any of the thunderstorms this afternoon across
northern Nebraska. After around 07z, thunderstorms will begin to
diminish across northern Nebraska, however, will keep mention of
VCSH through 18z. For KLBF, VFR conditions are expected through
the next 24 hours. Have removed all mention of thunderstorms from
KLBF through the night. Low level wind shear will be a threat for
KLBF overnight with southerly winds of 40 to 45 kts 2000 FT AGL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Thorne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
134 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-111845-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
134 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 /1234 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Thunderstorms will overspread the Sandhills this evening and
tonight as a warm front drifts north. Some storms will likely be
severe, with the greatest potential along and north of Highway 2.
South of Highway 2, the threat for severe storms will decrease
heading south toward Interstate 80. The primary threats are large
hail and damaging winds along with heavy rain. A tornado is
possible as well, mainly along the warm front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

Another round of thunderstorms will move through western and
north central Nebraska Wednesday evening and night. Some storms
may be severe, with the main threats being large hail, damaging
winds, and torrential rainfall. At this time, the main severe
threat is across the entire outlook area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed late this afternoon and
evening, mainly for areas along and north of Highway 2. Reports of
tornadoes, funnel clouds, large hail, severe winds, and flooding
are appreciated. Spotter activation is possible Wednesday for
areas generally east of the Nebraska Panhandle.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

CLB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
509 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019

NEZ004-094-110000-
Sheridan NE-Western Cherry NE-
509 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY AND
NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

At 509 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gordon, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gordon, Merriman, Irwin, Intersection of Highway 20 and Irwin Road,
Shell Lake State Wildlife Management Area, Rock Hill and Bayonne.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 104 and 140.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 223 and 231.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for the Panhandle
of and north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4300 10172 4295 10156 4264 10210 4277 10227
      4300 10208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 227DEG 24KT 4276 10211

Buttler

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
616 PM CDT TUE SEP 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             3 NW CROOKSTON          42.96N 100.79W
09/10/2019  E1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

            MOST HAILSTONES WERE NICKEL SIZE OR SMALLER, BUT A FEW
            WERE AT LEAST QUARTER IN SIZE.

&&

SJACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
624 PM CDT TUE SEP 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     TSTM WND GST     VALENTINE               42.87N 100.55W
09/10/2019  M82 MPH          CHERRY             NE   ASOS

            PEAK GUST IN SQUALL WAS 82 MPH AT KVTN.

&&

SJACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 PM CDT TUE SEP 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     HAIL             1 N VALENTINE           42.89N 100.55W
09/10/2019  E1.50 INCH       CHERRY             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CCOLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
628 PM CDT TUE SEP 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E VALENTINE           42.87N 100.51W
09/10/2019                   CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

            DEBRIS ON THE GROUND

&&

CCOLE

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