Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
656 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

The thunderstorm forecast late this afternoon and tonight follows a
blend of the HRRR, HREF, RAP, NAMdng and the model blend which
places isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity from roughly
Deuel county northeast to Valentine. The srn storm activity is
expected to weaken early this evening which the nrn storm activity
may last for several hours as it advances east through nrn Nebraska.

POPs for tonight are capped at 30 percent to account for
uncertainties in coverage. Some models like the HRRR produce very
little storm activity tonight.

A significant and potentially major league heavy rain event could
develop across parts of western Nebraska late Saturday afternoon
through Saturday night. Precipitable water increases to over 1.70
inches with a deep warm layer supporting tropical type rain
processes. The problem with the forecast is locating the low level
focus for best rain chances. The models may be placing the h850mb
front somewhere across KS with swrn Nebraska in an easterly upslope
flow. A frontal location near the NE-KS border would favor swrn
Nebraska for heavy rainfall. The location of the front will become
known later tonight in the wake of the storm activity across the
Dakotas.

POPs for this portion of the forecast capped at 50 percent and the
forecast uses the same model blend as the tonight period. Once
again, some models such as the GFS and ECM produce very little
rainfall across wrn Nebraska Saturday while the NAM12 places heavy
rain centers of 4 to 6 inches over nern Colorado and nwrn Kansas/far
swrn Nebraska. The flood guidance across swrn Nebraska is less than
2 inches in an hour which could easily be eclipsed given the
moisture available.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

The atmosphere transitions from quasi-barotropic to baroclinic
Sunday as a nrn stream disturbance infiltrates the tropical moisture
plume across the cntl Plains. The GEF output places a broad heavy
rain center over wrn and ncntl Nebraska and if this verifies, back-
to-back heavy rain events will occur. Parts of ncntl Nebraska might
be post-frontal with sfc low pressure over swrn KS and nern WY as
high pressure builds in to the upper Midwest. The double-barrel sfc
low pressure across WY and CO/KS will produce moist upslope east and
southeast winds across wrn Nebraska. The NAM and GFS continue
precipitable water above 1.70 inches Sunday night. The GFS and ECM
favor Sunday for the better rain chance while the NAM and SREF favor
Saturday.

A cold front will begin to dry out Wrn and ncntl Nebraska Monday
with northwest winds developing. Lingering moisture will continue
shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and beyond but POPs are 30
percent or lower.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

The main aviation concern will the chance for rain and thunderstorms
across portions of north central Nebraska. At this time, the best
chance for development will remain across the north, impacting only
KVTN. Frequent lightning, erratic winds, small hail, and heavy rain
could all be threats with these thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will remain across the region through Saturday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Kulik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
450 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-102200-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
450 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019 /350 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening,
generally across the eastern Panhandle and along and north of
highway 20 across northern Nebraska. A severe storm or two is
possible and the hazards are large hail, damaging winds and
locally heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado is possible across
Boyd county and northern Holt counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

Additional thunderstorms are expected this weekend as a cool
front remains stretched across the region. The greatest potential
for widespread activity comes Sunday night. Severe storms are
possible both Saturday and Sunday evenings, with large hail,
strong winds, and torrential rainfall being the main threats.

Near daily thunderstorm chances continue Monday and beyond. The
threat for severe weather is uncertain during this timeframe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across the eastern Panhandle and
north central Nebraska this evening. Reports of tornado activity,
hail, wind, and flooding are appreciated.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
911 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     HAIL             7 NNE ATKINSON          42.63N 98.93W
08/09/2019  E1.00 INCH       HOLT               NE   PUBLIC

            A FEW QUARTERS BUT MOSTLY SMALLER AND 41 MPH GUST.

&&

NJURGENS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
938 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

NEZ010-100330-
Holt NE-
938 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTY UNTIL
1030 PM CDT...

At 938 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
O'Neill, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and hail up to the size of nickels will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
O'neill, O'Neill, Ewing, Page, Inman, Emmet, Knievels Corner and
Goose Lake State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 295 and 328.
 Highway 281 between mile markers 161 and 195.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in North Platte.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4209 9862 4251 9891 4263 9865 4245 9831
      4209 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 316DEG 31KT 4246 9867

Jurgensen/CLB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
948 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

NEZ009-010-100330-
Holt NE-Rock NE-
948 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL ROCK AND
SOUTHWESTERN HOLT COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 947 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Atkinson to 12 miles south
of Newport. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Chambers and Amelia.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 293 and 297.
 Highway 281 between mile markers 158 and 166.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in North Platte.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4209 9856 4209 9920 4245 9936 4251 9887
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 312DEG 34KT 4246 9888 4243 9929

Jurgensen/CLB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
951 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

NEZ005-008-100330-
Brown NE-Eastern Cherry NE-
951 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CHERRY...WESTERN
ROCK AND BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 951 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Johnstown, or 20 miles west of Ainsworth, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ainsworth, Long Pine, Johnstown, Wood Lake, Hofeld Lake, Raven,
Antelope Peak, Jones Lake, Moon Lake, Willow Lake State Wildlife
Management Area and Long Lake State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 194 and 195.
 Highway 20 between mile markers 211 and 249.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in North Platte.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4253 9968 4246 9968 4243 9967 4239 9967
      4214 10008 4270 10047 4284 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 313DEG 29KT 4262 10025

Jurgensen/CLB

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>