Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
637 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 447 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

The cap is weakening across ncntl Nebraska and thunderstorms have
formed ahead of the forecast schedule. A new forecast is in place
across ncntl Nebraska for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon
through tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 417 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

A forecast update is in place for the cluster of storms near
Thedford. A gust to 46kts has been recorded. The forecast takes
the storms southeast toward Lincoln and Custer counties over the
next few hours. Storm motion is toward the southeast at 15 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Satellite timing tools suggest the shower and thunderstorm
activity over ern Wyoming will be located across wrn Nebraska
around 21z this afternoon. This seems faster than the
deterministic model timing. The thunderstorm forecast this
afternoon uses the timing tool and the fastest models, the HRRR
and NAMnest, as the basis for a chance of severe thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall.

The HRRR also suggests good wind damage potential this evening but
not significant (gusts less than 75 mph). The model generated gusts
are around 65 mph. The model forms a QLCS on the nose of a 40kt
500mb jet and moves it through the Sandhills at around 45 mph. An
isolated supercell or two may form later this evening behind the
QLCS in the deeper shear.

The heavy rain forecast across the Sandhills this evening is based
on storm development ahead of the fast-moving QLCS. These storms and
the QLCS will merge as indicated by the NAMnest. Precipitable water
will be 1.50 inches or higher across the Sandhills.

The dew point forecast uses the NAM guidance plus bias correction
which is the most moist data set but is still too dry. Dew points in
the 60s and lower 70s should continue tonight through Tuesday night.
The temperature forecast uses the guidance blend plus bias
correction. In the wake of tonight's significant thunderstorm
activity, cooler outflow air from the storms will lower highs
Tuesday into the 80s to lower 90s.

The thunderstorm chances late Tuesday are just scattered across
northern Nebraska. The models maintain a stable environment
throughout the afternoon with activity just getting started in
Wyoming around 21z. This activity will try and move east through nrn
Nebraska but weaken as it encounters a more stable air.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Just isolated thunderstorms are in the forecast Wednesday through
Monday but the NAMnest is firing off a line of storms late Wednesday
afternoon. This is the most aggressive model. The other models are
more stable with just a hint of storm activity shown in the SREF.

The latest model consensus continues to show low pressure anchored
over the central high Plains but swrn and ncntl Nebraska will be in
the warm sector with a warm front near the SD border. This should
support heat wave and possibly heat advisory conditions at times
Wednesday through Saturday. The latest model blend features highs in
the 90s through Saturday, even north of the weak frontal boundary.
Temperatures at h700mb continue in the 15C-18C through Saturday,
even across nrn Nebraska. This could support highs in the low 100s
as indicated by the ECM. Both the GFS and ECM indicate a significant
cold front late Saturday which cools high back into the 80s Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

In the near term, convection is on-going across north central
Nebraska. Gusty erratic winds have been the primary concerns, but
we've also received reports of marginal hail and limited
visibility with the storms. Going forward, expect similar
conditions to impact north central NE terminals if impacted by
these storms. Outflow from this convection has largely stabilized
the region to the south and west. The effects from the outflow on
the projected overnight convection are still uncertain, so will go
with the latest CAM guidance and continue a mention of strong
storms into the overnight that could impact any/most west central
NE terminals with heavy rain, limited visibility, gusty wind and
hail. Otherwise, updates to the wind are expected as the outflow
has caused a brisk northerly wind. There is uncertainty as to how
low this outflow influenced wind will last at KLBF, so expect an
update.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ007.

&&

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Jacobs

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
324 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-162030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
324 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 /224 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Heat indices in the mid to upper 90s will continue into early
evening. Heat indices will be near 100 degrees across Boyd
county before decreasing after sunset.

Severe thunderstorms are possible into tonight across mainly the
eastern Panhandle and northwest Nebraska. Large hail, damaging
winds, and frequent lightning is possible. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible as well across much of northern Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

Isolated strong to briefly severe thunderstorms will be possible
area-wide Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Heat indicies in the mid to upper 90s, approaching and reaching
100 degrees some locations, are possible in the afternoon
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday generally along and east of a
line from Imperial to North Platte to Butte.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
939 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     TSTM WND GST     RUSHVILLE               42.71N 102.47W
07/15/2019  E70 MPH          SHERIDAN           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60-70 MPH WINDS, SEVERAL TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

SJACOBS

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