Heat Advisory 4, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
322 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

A weak frontal boundary sagged into the Sandhills this morning. The
models show the front as a focus for scattered thunderstorms this
evening. Moisture is pooling behind the front and the RAP model
shows precipitable water increasing of over 1.50 inches which would
support a locally heavy rainfall threat. Winds aloft are actually
pretty strong with 30-45 kts at the 500mb-300mb levels. The MLCAPE
around 3000 J/KG across nrn Nebraska could support a few strong to
severe storms this evening. The upper level support is a subtropical
rotating through nrn Colorado.

If the thunderstorms form as expected this evening, then the front
could move further south and be the focus additional moisture
pooling and storm development late Monday afternoon and evening
across the central Sandhills and ncntl Nebraska. The NAM12 shows a
40-50kt 500mb Jetlet Monday afternoon which is the basis for the
slight severe thunderstorm risk as suggested by the SPC. Rain
chances ramp up to the likely category Monday evening with a
more expansive area of precipitable water above 1.50 inches.

The temperature and dew point forecast overnight through Monday
night leans on the model blend plus the guidance blend plus bias
correction. This is on the warmer, more moist, side of the forecast
envelope. Heat indices should rise to around 100F across Boyd county
where a heat advisory is in place Monday afternoon. Later forecasts
may add Holt county to the advisory where heat indices will approach
100F.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

The model consensus, which is in good agreement, suggests a weak
frontal boundary will remain across wrn and ncntl Nebraska all week
and into next weekend. This is likely the result of strong winds
aloft across the nrn Plains dictating low pressure to the lee of the
Colorado Rockies and outflow from storm activity across the nrn
Plains. This will pool moisture across Nebraska but at the same
time, h700mb temperatures are forecast to rise to 16C or warmer
ending rain chances.

The forecast is basically dry after Tuesday because the strong cap
allows just isolated rain chances. The model blended temperature
forecast is cool considering h700mb temperatures will range from 16C
to 18C, even across nrn Nebraska. If deep mixing occurs then the
warm air aloft would support highs in the low 100s as indicated by
the ECM model.

The temperature forecast is much cooler with highs in the upper 80s
to upper 90s and heat advisory conditions do not appear imminent;
dew points are expected to remain in the 60s. Given the caliber of
the warm air moving in aloft, however, the forecast could be too
cool and there is a chance that heat advisory conditions will become
widespread, especially across ncntl Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

For KLBF...VFR conditions prevail through Monday morning. A slight
wind shift from the south to the southwest will occur overnight, but
otherwise, winds remain 10 knots or less.

For KVTN...VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon.
Increasing clouds are possible late in the afternoon as the next
chance of rain and thunderstorms arrives tonight. Thunderstorms will
remain isolated, but could potentially impact the terminal. Expect
small hail and erratic winds in these thunderstorms. VFR conditions
will return by 04 to 06Z with a wind shift from the south to the
southwest as well by Monday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ007.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Kulik

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