Small Craft Advisory 3, NWS Key West, FL

797 
WHUS72 KKEY 220334
MWWKEY

URGENT - Marine Weather Message
National Weather Service Key West FL
1034 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

GMZ033>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-221145-
/O.CON.KKEY.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190122T2200Z/
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
1034 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northeast winds will increase to near 20 knots this 
  evening, then become east and increase to between 20 and 25 
  knots overnight. 

* WAVES/SEAS...Seas will build to 5 to 8 feet in the Straits of 
  Florida, with seas up to 9 feet in the Gulf Stream. Seas will 
  build to 5 to 7 feet in the extreme southeastern Gulf of 
  Mexico beyond five fathoms. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots,
or seas of 7 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous
conditions for small craft. Inexperienced boaters, especially
those with smaller vessels, should avoid operating in these
conditions. 
&&

$$

436 
WHUS72 KKEY 221006
MWWKEY

URGENT - Marine Weather Message
National Weather Service Key West FL
506 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

GMZ033>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-221815-
/O.CON.KKEY.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190122T2200Z/
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
506 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* WINDS...Mainly east winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots and
  slightly higher on the Reef Tract and Florida Straits, but
  slightly less on Florida Bay and the nearshore Gulf waters north
  of the Middle Keys.  

* WAVES/SEAS...Seas will build to 5 to 8 feet in the Straits of 
  Florida, with seas up to 9 feet in the Gulf Stream. Seas will 
  build to 5 to 7 feet in the extreme southeastern Gulf of 
  Mexico beyond five fathoms. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots,
or seas of 7 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous
conditions for small craft. Inexperienced boaters, especially
those with smaller vessels, should avoid operating in these
conditions. 
&&

$$

APA

106 
WHUS72 KKEY 221536
MWWKEY

URGENT - Marine Weather Message
National Weather Service Key West FL
1036 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

GMZ033>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-222200-
/O.CON.KKEY.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190122T2200Z/
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
1036 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* WINDS...Mainly east winds will increase to near 25 knots. 

* WAVES/SEAS...Seas will build to 8 to 11 feet across the Straits
  of Florida and up to 7 feet across the southeastern Gulf of 
  Mexico, adjacent to the Dry Tortugas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots,
or seas of 7 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous
conditions for small craft. Inexperienced boaters, especially
those with smaller vessels, should avoid operating in these
conditions. 
&&

$$

CLR

663 
WHUS72 KKEY 222113
MWWKEY

URGENT - Marine Weather Message
National Weather Service Key West FL
413 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

GMZ031-032-230400-
/O.EXB.KKEY.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190123T0400Z/
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
413 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...

The National Weather Service in Key West has issued a Small Craft
Advisory. 

* WINDS...Mainly east winds near 20 knots will persist across
  Florida Bay and the nearshore Gulf side waters.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots,
or seas of 7 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous
conditions for small craft. Inexperienced boaters, especially
those with smaller vessels, should avoid operating in these
conditions. 
&&

$$

GMZ033>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-230400-
/O.EXT.KKEY.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190123T0400Z/
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
413 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* WINDS...East to southeast winds near 25 knots will persist
  across Hawk Channel, the Straits of Florida and the offshore
  Gulf of Mexico waters.

* WAVES/SEAS...Seas 8 to 11 feet across the Straits of Florida and
  up to 8 feet across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, adjacent 
  to the Dry Tortugas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots,
or seas of 7 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous
conditions for small craft. Inexperienced boaters, especially
those with smaller vessels, should avoid operating in these
conditions. 
&&

$$

CLR

587 
WHUS72 KKEY 230315
MWWKEY

URGENT - Marine Weather Message
National Weather Service Key West FL
1015 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

GMZ033-034-042>044-052>055-072>075-231115-
/O.EXT.KKEY.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190123T2200Z/
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
1015 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...

* WINDS...East to southeast winds of 20 to 25 knots will persist
  across Hawk Channel, the Straits of Florida and the offshore
  Gulf of Mexico waters through Wednesday. Frequent gusts near 30
  knots can be expected across Hawk Channel and the Straits of 
  Florida overnight.

* WAVES/SEAS...Seas 8 to 11 feet across the Straits of Florida 
  and up to 8 feet across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, 
  adjacent to the Dry Tortugas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots,
or seas of 7 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous
conditions for small craft. Inexperienced boaters, especially
those with smaller vessels, should avoid operating in these
conditions. 
&&

$$

GMZ031-032-035-231115-
/O.EXT.KKEY.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190123T1600Z/
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
1015 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...

* WINDS...East to southeast winds near 20 knots will persist
  across Florida Bay and the nearshore Gulf side waters through
  Wednesday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots,
or seas of 7 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous
conditions for small craft. Inexperienced boaters, especially
those with smaller vessels, should avoid operating in these
conditions. 
&&

$$

836 
WHUS72 KKEY 230951
MWWKEY

URGENT - Marine Weather Message
National Weather Service Key West FL
451 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

GMZ033-034-042>044-052>055-072>075-231800-
/O.CON.KKEY.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190123T2200Z/
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
451 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* WINDS...East to southeast winds of 20 to 25 knots will persist
  across Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida, and slightly
  lower on the offshore Gulf of Mexico waters today. Occasional 
  gusts near 30 knots can be expected across Hawk Channel and the 
  Straits of Florida this morning. However, winds will slacken 
  somewhat to 20 to 25 knots by this afternoon.
  

* WAVES/SEAS...Seas 7 to 10 feet across the Straits of Florida 
  and up to 7 feet across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, 
  adjacent to the Dry Tortugas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots,
or seas of 7 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous
conditions for small craft. Inexperienced boaters, especially
those with smaller vessels, should avoid operating in these
conditions. 
&&

$$

GMZ031-032-035-231600-
/O.CON.KKEY.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190123T1600Z/
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
451 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
   MORNING...

* WINDS...East to southeast winds near 20 knots will persist
  across Florida Bay and the nearshore Gulf side waters through at
  least this morning.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots,
or seas of 7 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous
conditions for small craft. Inexperienced boaters, especially
those with smaller vessels, should avoid operating in these
conditions. 
&&

$$


APA

551 
WHUS72 KKEY 231517
MWWKEY

URGENT - Marine Weather Message
National Weather Service Key West FL
1017 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

GMZ031-032-035-231630-
/O.CAN.KKEY.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190123T1600Z/
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
1017 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Key West has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory. 

East to southeast winds have decreased below Advisory thresholds,
although Small Craft Should Exercise Caution due to winds of 15 
to 20 knots and choppy nearshore waters.

$$

GMZ033-034-042>044-052>055-072>075-232200-
/O.CON.KKEY.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190123T2200Z/
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
1017 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* WINDS...East to southeast winds near 25 knots with frequent
  gusts near 30 knots will persist across the affected coastal
  waters of the Florida Keys late this morning and early this
  afternoon. Winds will begin to slacken somewhat to 20 to 25
  knots later this afternoon.

* WAVES/SEAS...Seas 8 to 10 feet across the Straits of Florida and
  up to 7 feet across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, adjacent 
  to the Dry Tortugas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots,
or seas of 7 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous
conditions for small craft. Inexperienced boaters, especially
those with smaller vessels, should avoid operating in these
conditions. 
&&

$$

CLR

466 
WHUS72 KKEY 232121
MWWKEY

URGENT - Marine Weather Message
National Weather Service Key West FL
421 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

GMZ033-034-042>044-052>055-072>075-232230-
/O.CON.KKEY.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190123T2200Z/
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
421 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* WINDS...Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots will prevail across Hawk
  Channel, the Straits of Florida and the deep waters of the
  southeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening. 

* WAVES/SEAS...Seas 7 to 9 feet across the Straits of Florida. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots,
or seas of 7 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous
conditions for small craft. Inexperienced boaters, especially
those with smaller vessels, should avoid operating in these
conditions. 

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
316 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight-Thursday)
The main forecast issue through Wednesday will be a veering of
winds out of the east tonight, with windy conditions developing on
Tuesday and persisting into Wednesday. The next cold front is
expected to pass the Keys on Thursday.

A strong surface high pressure center over the Central
Appalachians will move off the NC/VA coast on Tue evening. In
response, our low- level wind flow will become easterly by late
tonight. Pressure gradients on the southern periphery of this
polar high will bring windy conditions to the Keys on Tue and Wed.
Land-based wind gusts of 25-30 mph can be expected as easterly
winds peak on Tue PM.

The strong low-level easterly flow will bring a quick return of
low-level moisture starting tonight. Surface dewpoints will rise
through the 60s on Tue, reaching near 70F on Wed. Given increasing
moisture in the boundary layer and subtle mesoscale features
within the strong easterly low-level flow, isolated to scattered
trade wind showers will return as soon as late tonight then
continue through Wed. Best chance for a shower may actually come
on Tue AM, as a little warm advection upglide adds some shallow
lift within the low-level moist layer.

The next cold front will cross the Middle Gulf on Wed evening,
then cross the Keys on Thu PM. This timing is a few hours slower
than what models were depicting yesterday. Moderate instability is
forecast in the pre-frontal environment, and Precipitable Water
values should spike to near 1.8" in advance of the front. So would
expect a broken or solid line of convection to cross the Keys
just in advance of the frontal passage. So the likely PoPs for Thu
appear justified and will continue. With somewhat slower frontal
timing, may need to extend higher PoPs into Thu evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday-Monday)
The extended forecast period is looking increasingly wet and
unsettled.

Thursday's cold front will settle over the Straits of Florida on
Friday and Saturday. Proximity of the leftover front has prompted
the introduction of shower chances to the forecast during this
time. The 12z ECMWF shows a frontal wave moving by on Saturday
night, which could push the bulk of showers and rain further
north over the Keys, and GEFS ensemble plume diagrams over EYW
show an increase in ensembles with rain on Saturday night.

For Sunday and next Monday, details of the forecast become
particularly uncertain. What we know is that a deep, broad, and high
amplitude upper trough axis will be over the Mississippi Valley
next Saturday night and Sunday. This will lead to strong, cyclonic
upper flow with strongly negative height anomalies over the entire
Gulf. This is an excellent setup for cyclogenesis. In addition,
the ECMWF ensemble mean points to a shortwave that will dive into
the Northwest Gulf on Saturday night, swinging east across the
Northern Gulf on Sunday. All models seem to point to cyclogenesis
along coastal Texas next Saturday night, but then there are large
differences with how the low evolves and where it goes from
there. The EC's three most recent runs take a deepening low
eastward across the Gulf, but there is not yet run-to-run
consistency with storm strength, track, and structure. Though the
operational run of the 12z GFS misses the low center altogether,
more and more of its ensembles have been getting on board with
showing wet and unsettled conditions over the Keys next Sunday.
Among other things, the differences will determine if we end up
with gale-force winds or sub-small craft wind, a thunderstorm
squall line versus stratiform rain, a quick shot of rain or a more
prolonged day of heavier rain. Next Sunday looks unsettled, but
the details are far from certain. Stay tuned.

Will probably take a few more days for models to settle on a
single solution for next Sunday. Just consider that the shortwave
feature that we are talking about is just now emerging into the
Northwest Pacific way southwest of Alaska...a lot can happen
between there and here.

Have introduced chance PoPs for most of next weekend, with likely
PoPs in the Straits.

The unsettled weather may be exiting the region next Monday, so
have shown a trend of decreasing PoPs next Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong 1039 mb surface high is centered over Ohio this morning.
This high pressure cell will move eastward, eventually emerging
off the Virgina and North Carolina coasts late Tuesday. As the
Keys coastal waters come under the influence of strong gradients
on its southern periphery, easterly winds will become strong late
tonight and Tuesday, with wind veering from northeast to east.
Strong easterlies will continue Tue night and Wed, as the surface
high moves across the Western Atlantic to just north of Bermuda.
Over the open waters in the middle of the Straits, 10-11 foot
seas are expected on Tue afternoon and evening.

Winds will start to ease by Wed afternoon, as high pressure exits,
and a cold front moves off the Texas coast and surges toward the
Middle Gulf. As this front progresses into the Eastern Gulf on Wed
night, our winds will ease further and become southerly.

So the next cold frontal passage is expected on Thursday
afternoon. Winds behind this front should not be as strong as
yesterday. Basically we're looking at moderate to fresh
northerlies on Friday, turning northeasterly on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Clear skies at both terminals right now due to the cool, dry air
mass and low-level flow off the Florida Peninsula.

Low-level flow will veer around through the northeast this
evening and then the east late tonight, quickly returning low-
level moisture and clouds that remain just off the Southeast
Florida coast and over the Gulf Stream. FEW-SCT cloud coverage is
expected this evening, but then BKN cloud coverage should prevail
late tonight and Tuesday morning as moisture increases further and
some weak warm advection upglide gets underway over the Keys.
Could even have some light showers or sprinkles in the vicinity of
the terminals after about 08z-10z. Showers are more likely over
the nearby waters of the Straits, so have handled that with VCSH
in the 15z EYW amendment.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1971, the daily record low temperature of 46 degrees was recorded
in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Tuesday
     for GMZ033>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...Haner
Aviation/Nowcasts....Kasper
Data Collection......Kasper

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
519 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-221100-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
519 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A Small Craft Advisory is posted across all Keys waters through
late this morning. Winds and seas will lull a bit this afternoon.
Winds will increase again this evening and small craft advisories
will be needed across all waters except possibly for Florida Bay.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Small Craft Advisories are expected across all waters Tuesday
through at least Wednesday. Small craft advisory conditions will
be likely again for the Florida Straits waters by Friday night.

Another cold front may bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms
to the Keys and all surrounding waters during Wednesday night
through Thursday. The primary hazards will be dangerous lightning
strikes and isolated strong wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Futterman