Coastal Flood Statement 1, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
437 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Along the island chain, skies are mostly cloudy with east winds
near 15 mph with several periods of wind gusts near 25 mph. As a
result, temperatures are ranging between the upper 70s to lower
80s. Meanwhile, local radars are detecting numerous showers,
isolated thunderstorms along with several outflow boundaries in
our region. On our marine district, winds are east near 15 knots
with gusts of 25 to 30 knots due to the cells and boundaries.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
A nearly stationary mid and upper level low over the east central
Gulf of Mexico, while a tropical wave over the central Bahamas
moves slowly west northwestward and across our region this
afternoon through Friday, before exiting into the Southeast Gulf
of Mexico Friday night. This low pressure systems will be lift
northeastward into the northern half of the Sunshine State early
this weekend. Given an abundance of moisture, low level
confluence, mid level ascent and upper level divergence will
prompt well above normal likely pops today through at least
Friday with at least high chance pops thereafter. In addition,
locally heavy rainfall,a few strong storms containing wind gusts
of 40 mph or higher can be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
In wake of low pressure lifting northeastward and offshore of the
northeast Florida coast, a high pressure cells will build across
South Florida and our region through the period. Given
strengthening large scale descent and typical moisture, low chance
pops will return beginning Monday. High temperatures will climb
into the lower 90s, with overnight lows in the lower 80s outside
of heavy downpours.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to occasional east winds early this morning, will become
gentle to moderate this afternoon before moderate east winds
prevail tonight and early Friday. Thereafter, gentle to occasional
moderate winds will end this week, before light to gentle winds
predominate this weekend. But as usual, mariners should be alert
for statements or warnings issued by your National Weather Service
right here in Key West.

&&

.AVIATION...
Occasional MVFR ceilings and MVFR to IFR visibilities are
anticipated at both island terminals through the morning hours in
association with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms moving
through the area. Thereafter a vicinity shower or thunderstorm are
possible, but mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Outside
of convection and outflow boundaries, winds will be easterly at 8-12
knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
n 1971, the daily record low temperature of 71 degrees was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  88  78  88  78 / 60 60 60 50
Marathon  88  78  88  78 / 60 60 60 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....WLC

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-020900-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, a few of which may be strong
are possible along the Florida Keys and the surrounding coastal
waters.

The primary thunderstorm hazards will be cloud to surface
lightning strikes and strong gusty winds near 40 mph or higher in
some cells.

In addition, locally heavy rainfall is likely along the Florida
Keys.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

For Friday and Friday night, Isolated to scattered thunderstorms,
a few of which may be strong, are anticipated along the Florida
Keys and the surrounding coastal waters.

The primary thunderstorm hazards will be cloud to surface
lightning strikes and strong gusty winds near 40 mph or higher in
some cells.

In addition, locally heavy rainfall is likely along the Florida
Keys during this period.

Beginning Saturday, isolated thunderstorms are anticipated along
the island chain and the surrounding coastal waters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

APA