Wind Advisory 5, NWS Jackson, KY

Bath County, KY, Bell County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Clay County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY

564 
WWUS73 KJKL 140252
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1052 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

KYZ087-088-118-141200-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.190414T1200Z-190415T0000Z/
Bell-Harlan-Letcher-
Including the cities of Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, 
Harlan, Jenkins, and Whitesburg
1052 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* TIMING...The strongest winds will develop on the higher 
  terrain Sunday morning, with the winds developing across all 
  other locations by midday. The strong winds will continue 
  through early Sunday evening. 

* WINDS...South to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to
  around 40 mph are expected. A few wind gusts up to 50 mph are
  expected above 2500 feet. 

* IMPACTS...Tree limbs and branches may fall and some weakened 
  trees may be uprooted, leading to possible power outages. 
  Driving will be difficult for high profile vehicles on east- 
  west roads. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 30 to 39 mph and/or gusts of
40 to 57 mph are expected, or are occurring. Winds this strong
can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
Use extra caution.

&&

$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119-
120-141200-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.190414T1600Z-190415T0000Z/
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Elliott-Morgan-
Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-
Clay-Leslie-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, 
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Sandy Hook, 
West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, 
Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, 
Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Inez, Coal Run, 
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
1052 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* TIMING...Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening.

* WINDS...South to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 
  around 40 mph are expected. 

* IMPACTS...Tree limbs and branches may fall and some weakened 
  trees may be uprooted, leading to possible power outages. 
  Driving will be difficult for high profile vehicles on east- 
  west roads, including I-64, the Mountain Parkway, and the Hal 
  Rogers Parkway. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 30 to 39 mph and/or gusts of
40 to 57 mph are expected, or are occurring. Winds this strong
can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
Use extra caution.

&&

$$

KAS/GEOGERIAN

293 
WWUS73 KJKL 140745 AAB
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
345 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

KYZ087-088-118-141545-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.190414T1200Z-190415T0000Z/
Bell-Harlan-Letcher-
Including the cities of Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, 
Harlan, Jenkins, and Whitesburg
345 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...The strongest winds will develop on the higher terrain
  this morning, with the winds developing across all other
  locations by midday. The strong winds will continue through
  early this evening. 

* WINDS...South to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 
  around 40 mph are expected. A few wind gusts up to 50 mph are 
  expected above 2500 feet. 

* IMPACTS...Tree limbs and branches may fall and some weakened 
  trees may be uprooted, leading to possible power outages. 
  Driving will be difficult for high profile vehicles on east- 
  west roads. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 30 to 39 mph and/or gusts of
40 to 57 mph are expected, or are occurring. Winds this strong
can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
Use extra caution.

&&

$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119-
120-141545-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.190414T1600Z-190415T0000Z/
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Elliott-Morgan-
Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-
Clay-Leslie-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, 
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Sandy Hook, 
West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, 
Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, 
Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Inez, Coal Run, 
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
345 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...This afternoon into early this evening.

* WINDS...South to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 
  around 40 mph are expected. 

* IMPACTS...Tree limbs and branches may fall and some weakened 
  trees may be uprooted, leading to possible power outages. 
  Driving will be difficult for high profile vehicles on east- 
  west roads, including I-64, the Mountain Parkway, and the Hal 
  Rogers Parkway. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 30 to 39 mph and/or gusts of
40 to 57 mph are expected, or are occurring. Winds this strong
can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
Use extra caution.

&&

$$

AR

049 
WWUS73 KJKL 141428
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1028 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...Gusty Winds Today...

KYZ087-088-118-142230-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-190415T0000Z/
Bell-Harlan-Letcher-
Including the cities of Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, 
Harlan, Jenkins, and Whitesburg
1028 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...The strongest winds will develop on the higher 
  terrain this morning, with the winds developing across all 
  other locations by midday. The strong winds will continue 
  through early this evening. 

* WINDS...South to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts into
  the 40 to 50 mph range expected. A few wind gusts up to 55 mph 
  are possible above 2500 feet. 

* IMPACTS...Tree limbs and branches may fall and some weakened 
  trees may be uprooted, leading to possible power outages. 
  Driving will be difficult for high profile vehicles on east- 
  west roads. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 30 to 39 mph and/or gusts of
40 to 57 mph are expected, or are occurring. Winds this strong
can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
Use extra caution.

&&

$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119-
120-142230-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.190414T1600Z-190415T0000Z/
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Elliott-Morgan-
Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-
Clay-Leslie-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, 
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Sandy Hook, 
West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, 
Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, 
Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Inez, Coal Run, 
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
1028 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...Through early this evening.

* WINDS...South to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts into
  the 40 to 50 mph range expected. 

* IMPACTS...Tree limbs and branches may fall and some weakened 
  trees may be uprooted, leading to possible power outages. 
  Driving will be difficult for high profile vehicles on east- 
  west roads, including I-64, the Mountain Parkway, and the Hal 
  Rogers Parkway. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 30 to 39 mph and/or gusts of
40 to 57 mph are expected, or are occurring. Winds this strong
can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
Use extra caution.

&&

$$

683 
WWUS73 KJKL 141431
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1031 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...Gusty Winds Today...

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119-
120-142245-
/O.EXT.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.190414T1431Z-190415T0000Z/
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Elliott-Morgan-
Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-
Clay-Leslie-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, 
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Sandy Hook, 
West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, 
Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, 
Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Inez, Coal Run, 
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
1031 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...Through early this evening.

* WINDS...South to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts 
  into the 40 to 50 mph range expected. 

* IMPACTS...Tree limbs and branches may fall and some weakened 
  trees may be uprooted, leading to possible power outages. 
  Driving will be difficult for high profile vehicles on east- 
  west roads, including I-64, the Mountain Parkway, and the Hal 
  Rogers Parkway. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 30 to 39 mph and/or gusts of
40 to 57 mph are expected, or are occurring. Winds this strong
can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
Use extra caution.

&&

$$

KYZ087-088-118-142245-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-190415T0000Z/
Bell-Harlan-Letcher-
Including the cities of Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, 
Harlan, Jenkins, and Whitesburg
1031 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...The strongest winds will develop on the higher 
  terrain this morning, with the winds developing across all 
  other locations by midday. The strong winds will continue 
  through early this evening. 

* WINDS...South to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts 
  into the 40 to 50 mph range expected. A few wind gusts up to 
  55 mph are possible above 2500 feet. 

* IMPACTS...Tree limbs and branches may fall and some weakened 
  trees may be uprooted, leading to possible power outages. 
  Driving will be difficult for high profile vehicles on east- 
  west roads. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 30 to 39 mph and/or gusts of
40 to 57 mph are expected, or are occurring. Winds this strong
can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
Use extra caution.

&&

$$

835 
WWUS73 KJKL 142014
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson KY
414 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...Gusty Winds into This Evening...

KYZ087-088-118-150000-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-190415T0000Z/
Bell-Harlan-Letcher-
Including the cities of Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, 
Harlan, Jenkins, and Whitesburg
414 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...Through early this evening. 

* WINDS...South to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts 
  into the 40 to 50 mph range expected. A few wind gusts up to 
  55 mph are possible above 2500 feet. 

* IMPACTS...Tree limbs and branches may fall and some weakened 
  trees may be uprooted, leading to possible power outages. 
  Driving will be difficult for high profile vehicles on east- 
  west roads. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 30 to 39 mph and/or gusts of
40 to 57 mph are expected, or are occurring. Winds this strong
can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
Use extra caution.

&&

$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119-
120-150000-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-190415T0000Z/
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Elliott-Morgan-
Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-
Clay-Leslie-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, 
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Sandy Hook, 
West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, 
Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, 
Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Inez, Coal Run, 
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
414 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...Through early this evening.

* WINDS...South to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts 
  into the 40 to 50 mph range expected. 

* IMPACTS...Tree limbs and branches may fall and some weakened 
  trees may be uprooted, leading to possible power outages. 
  Driving will be difficult for high profile vehicles on east- 
  west roads, including I-64, the Mountain Parkway, and the Hal 
  Rogers Parkway. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 30 to 39 mph and/or gusts of
40 to 57 mph are expected, or are occurring. Winds this strong
can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
Use extra caution.

&&

$$

JP

354 
WWUS73 KJKL 142359
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson KY
759 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...Gusty Winds into This Evening...

KYZ052-060-080-083>086-104-106>117-119-120-150100-
/O.CAN.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-190415T0000Z/
Rowan-Menifee-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Elliott-Morgan-
Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-
Clay-Leslie-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Morehead, Frenchburg, London, Monticello,
Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, 
Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, 
Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, 
Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Inez, 
Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
759 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Jackson has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

Wind gusts of around 40 mph have diminished across the area; 
however, some gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible through 10 
pm.

$$

KYZ087-088-118-150100-
/O.EXP.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-190415T0000Z/
Bell-Harlan-Letcher-
Including the cities of Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, 
Harlan, Jenkins, and Whitesburg
759 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Wind gusts of around 40 mph have diminished across the area; 
however, some gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible through 10 
pm.

$$

KYZ044-050-051-058-059-068-069-079-150200-
/O.EXT.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-190415T0200Z/
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Estill-Powell-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton,
Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, and Somerset
759 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...Through early this evening.

* WINDS...West southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of
  around 40 mph will continue through 10 pm, before diminishing. 

* IMPACTS...Tree limbs and branches may fall and some weakened
  trees may be uprooted, leading to possible power outages.
  Driving will be difficult for high profile vehicles on east-
  west roads, including I-64, the Mountain Parkway, and Highway 
  80. 
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 30 to 39 mph and/or gusts of
40 to 57 mph are expected, or are occurring. Winds this strong
can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
Use extra caution.

&&

$$

GEOGERIAN

195 
WWUS73 KJKL 150159
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson KY
959 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

KYZ044-050-051-058-059-068-069-079-150300-
/O.EXP.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-190415T0200Z/
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Estill-Powell-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton,
Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, and Somerset
959 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Wind gusts have dropped below 40 mph this evening. Therefore, the
wind advisory will be allowed to expire. Wind gusts of 30 to 35
mph will continue to be possible through midnight. 

$$

GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
143 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 143 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2019

A nice moisture gradient continues to develop across eastern
Kentucky with dewpoints in our north into the mid 30s, while
dewpoints remain in the mid 50s across the south. This continues
to support the best shower/sprinkle chance across our far
south/southeast counties through this afternoon. Rain chances
tonight appear to be fairly minimal as well as the main surge of
isentropic ascent only brushes our western zones. Thus, it looks
like rain chances will hold off until at least closer to dawn on
Sunday. Updated the rain chances accordingly based on all of this.

UPDATE Issued at 1111 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2019

Only stations to measure from any of the radar returns this
morning so far has been the yellow creek RAWS in Bell county and
the Black Mountain mesonet. Thus, have dropped things back to
sprinkles for most of our southern zones this morning and kept a
isolated shower for our far southeastern zones through early this
afternoon. Downslope flow should take hold as we head further into
this afternoon, keeping any precipitation potential very low for
the majority of the area. With this in mind, and the fact that
temperatures area already in the low 60s under decent cloud cover,
have raised afternoon highs into the mid 70s.

Looking at the 12z model guidance coming in, still looks like we
have potential for some morning shower/storm activity on Sunday,
but enough of a break to allow things to recharge for the
afternoon and evening. Thus, majority of the guidance still
supports severe storm development Sunday evening. Main threats
appear to be hail. Latest 00z HREF has the highest updraft
helicity probabilities from eastern Kentucky, stretching northward
into eastern Ohio. The 12z HREF will be coming in by noon. Thus,
at least the hi- res short term models continue to support the
severe threat moving forward. Still appears the greatest threat
will be damaging winds, but given the tremendous low level shear
in the 0-3km layer perpendicular to the expected line movement, a
weak QLCS tornado could not be ruled out.

UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2019

The forecast is pretty much on track so far this morning. A few
rain showers will move through the area through out the day and
will become more numerous overnight. The latest obs were ingested
into the hourly forecast to establish new trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2019

The focus in the short will be the potential for severe storms on
Sunday. We expect there to be two distinct rounds of storms, one
early in the day and a second during the afternoon and evening
hours. The intensity of the late day storms may depend largely on
how much convection is able to form early in the day along lower
Tennessee valley and north portions of the gulf coast states. If
we see a bit of clearing and destabilization behind the initial
round of storms, along with a less extensive area of southern
storms, we might be in for a round of strong to severe storms
across eastern Kentucky late in the day on Sunday. Even if
instability is not very strong, strong winds aloft will be of
concern, and could be mixed to the surface by the strong storms.
That being said, damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk with
any storms on Sunday. There will be secondary but less likely
risks of large hail and tornadoes. As always, locally heavy
rainfall that could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.
This late day round of storms will form ahead of the strong cold
front that will be moving across the region. In general, the
coverage and strength of thunderstorms on Sunday will depend on
the overall strength of the area of low pressure that is forecast
to move across the area, the amount of instability available, the
strength of winds aloft, and whether or not widespread storms form
to our south early in the day. The Storm Prediction Center still
has eastern Kentucky under and enhanced risk for severe weather on
Sunday.

Ongoing showers and storms to our south are expected to move into
the area early this morning, and would affect mainly our western
most counties today through this evening. The next round of
showers and storms is then forecast to push through the area
tonight and Sunday, as the cold front approaches.

Temperatures are expected to run well above normal this weekend,
with highs forecast to max out in the 70s across the area both
today and tomorrow. Tonights lows should be quite mild as well,
with minimum readings generally in the lower 60s across the area.
Strong gusty winds will also be a good bet for Sunday, as a strong
area of low pressure moves through the region. South to southwest
winds of around 15 mph, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph will be
possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2019

The models are in pretty good agreement aloft through the middle
of the new week before spreads increase substantially with the
handling of another potentially closed low trough moving east
through the Great Plains. They all depict the opening and
dampening trough departing the Ohio Valley Sunday night with
similar timing and strength into Monday - including a pocket of
trailing energy exiting eastern Kentucky around midday on the
15th. Heights will gradually rebound through the first part of the
week over Kentucky as flat ridging develops over the eastern
2/3rds of the country. A developing trough will then dive into
through Four Corners region by Wednesday morning. The GFS is
strongest with this wave when it moves into the High Plains -
closing off its low compared to the more open versions seen in the
operational ECMWF and Canadian. These differences magnify into
Thursday as some of its energy breaks free and runs over Kentucky
while the core of the system remains back over the Central Plains.
There is some convergence in solutions to close out the work week
with deepening seen in the non GFS models - forming their own
closed lows through the mid Mississippi Valley. This system will
continue to work east through Friday spreading its low heights and
energy of uncertain magnitude through the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys - as well as the Deep South. Confidence will be rather
high in the consensus solutions through Wednesday before falling
below average with the latter part of the week across Kentucky. At
this point though it appears that the blended solution is the
best starting point given no strong or reliable solution cluster
outside of the blend.

Sensible weather will feature the after effects of a departing
mature sfc low moving through the eastern parts of the Ohio
Valley. This will mean likely storms dying and departing to the
east by, or shortly after, 00z Monday with CAA commencing along
with upslope flow. Warm sfc temperatures will take some time to
cool in the system's wake sparing all but the highest terrain any
threat of typical upslope/wrap around snow showers through Monday
morning - should this system had moves through a month ago.
However, the moisture and terrain lift should prolong the light
rain showers for eastern parts of our area into midday before
drier air puts an end to the lingering pcpn. High pressure then
builds into the region through Tuesday setting the stage for some
ridge to valley differences each night into Thursday morning.
Could also see some frost Monday night and Tuesday morning in the
deeper valleys. The next impressive sfc low will start to impact
the area on Thursday with its warm front and some upper support
bringing a potential for thunderstorms back to our area. The path
of the main sfc low will be important for the thunder chances and
any heavy rain Friday across eastern Kentucky so for now have
downplayed that concern awaiting better model consensus.

Did adjust the blended temperatures each night from Monday through
Wednesday due to the sfc high slipping to the southeast with time
setting the stage for a ridge to valley split those nights. As for
PoPs - mainly adjusted them initially higher Sunday night and
then later on for timing issues and increased uncertainty on
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2019

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF forecast period with
a BKN-OVC layer at or near 8-10kft. A strong low level jet will
develop across the area tonight into Sunday morning with a period
of low level wind shear expected through midday Sunday. Once the
wind shear goes away on Sunday, gusty south winds will develop
with wind gusts up to 25 or 30 knots possible. Wind gusts could
get even stronger into the mid to late afternoon hours on Sunday.
Showers and storms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening and
could bring some strong wind gusts over 50 knots along with heavy
rain (reduced visibilities and ceilings). Much of this will be
captured in the next aviation forecast at 00z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
355 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-141100-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
355 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are expected on Sunday. Some of these storms may be
severe, with damaging winds being the main threat, but large hail
and a tornado will also be possible.

Thunderstorms are also possible on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance may be needed on Sunday.

AR/GREIF