Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
937 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2019

Rainfall continues across much of eastern Kentucky, with a heavier
mass of rain moving into our SW counties. With over 2 inches haven
being reported by the mesonet now in Wayne and McCreary counties,
and heavy rain continuing to move in, it was decided to go ahead
and issue a Urban and Small Stream advisory for our SW counties.
LMK also issued an FLS adjacent to us in their CWA around the same
time as well, so this matches up well. Affected counties have
been called, and so far there have been no reports of road
closures due to high water, but will continue to monitor over the
coming hours.

A few rumbles of thunder also continue, so went ahead and
expanded potential for isolated thunder across much of the CWA,
with best chances progressing eastward with the heaviest rainfall.
Speaking of rainfall, increased pops somewhat across the SW CWA
to better account for the ongoing widespread convection here. Also
used the latest CAMS and radar trends to better time out the pops
through the remainder of the night. This may actually result in
pops exiting earlier than was originally forecast, generally
between 12 and 14Z. Will send out a new forecast package shortly
to transition to overnight wording and reflect any changes made to
the forecast. All updates have also been published and sent to
NDFD/web.

UPDATE Issued at 659 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2019

Continuing to monitor rainfall, which is so far in line quite well
with the ongoing forecast. This resulted in only minor tweaks in
the forecast. The cold front is currently moving across western
Kentucky, and is still on target to traverse eastern Kentucky
between around 6 and 12Z tonight. We have have a couple lightning
flashes/strikes now across the western CWA with the heavier
convection and closer to the instability produced by the frontal
boundary, but forecast does have slight chance thunder, so this
is covered. Loaded in the latest temps and winds, to make sure the
near term forecast was on track with these current conditions.
Winds will need to be closely monitored as we head into the
evening and they begin to ramp up along and just behind the cold
front. Will also continue to monitor rainfall amounts and impacts,
especially across the western CWA, in case any issues with
flooding of low lying areas arise. Latest mesonet totals show
generally between 1 and 1.25 inches of rainfall along our western
CWA border, with totals diminishing as you head eastward. Don't
expect this to be enough to cause any concerns at this point, but
heavy rains are expected to continue into the overnight with
another 0.5 to 1 inch possible. All updates have been published
and sent to NDFD/web. Changes were not significant enough to
warrant a new forecast package at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 440 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2019

20z sfc analysis shows a deep area of low pressure over the Upper
Midwest with a cold front approaching the area. Ahead of this
southeast to south winds are bringing in plenty of moisture
keeping the showers around for our western 2/3rds of the CWA. The
heaviest of these have been mainly over our Bluegrass counties
where up to an inch has already fallen. A better surge of
convection remains to the southwest of the area but will work in
later this evening when some thunderstorms will be possible.
Otherwise, the showers and clouds have kept temperatures from
climbing too far into the upper and lower 60s west while upper
60s are noted in the far east where the Wx has been drier and
clouds higher. Dewpoints are still coming up across the area - in
the upper 50s north and west while low 60s are found across the
southeast.

The models are in excellent agreement aloft through the short
term portion of the forecast. They all depict a deep and closed
off low grinding through the Central Plains today with a
negatively tilted node sweeping east across the mid Mississippi
River tonight. Meanwhile, deep layer southwest flow will continue
to pump moisture and warmth into Kentucky through the first part
of the night on account of the height gradient between the large
low to the northwest and ridging over the southeast. The low then
wobbles into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Monday sending
height falls through Kentucky along with some energy packets
moving through in the, now more zonal, fast flow. The heights from
this low then continues to lower through Monday night as the
upper low consolidates over Michigan. Given the limited model
spread through the short term have favored the blended NBM along
with WPC's QPF forecast and the NAM12's timing of its main
features.

Sensible weather will consist of an active evening of moderate to
at times heavy rains for our west and north ahead of the inbound
cold front. With or without thunder this convection will drop
plenty of rain and result in a threat for flooding - but mainly of
low lying and flood prone areas. A flood watch is in effect until
2 am EST for these counties. The arrival of the front later this
night will put an end to the heavier rains and thunder chances but
bring with it some gusty winds of up to 35 mph for a time in our
Bluegrass region. The weather then quiets down by morning with
just some low clouds and lingering light rain showers around
through the day Monday - but brisk conditions will occur as well
due to west to southwest winds and a cooler air mass moving into
place. Likewise, temperatures will get down closer to normal
Monday night with still some lingering pcpn chances of rain or
snow - with no impact into Tuesday morning.

Did adjust the NBM temps a tad mainly to fine tune some point
forecasts through the period. As for PoPs, have mainly broadened
out the low values post frontal and added some minor terrain
effects - though not much given the poor upslope angle of the low
level winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2019

A few rain or snow showers may affect locations north of the
Mountain Parkway on Tuesday, as a fast moving disturbance aloft
moves through the Great Lakes region. After this system pass by us,
a short lived area of high pressure will bring dry weather to
eastern Kentucky Tuesday night through Wednesday night. After that,
the model data is suggesting that another area of low pressure,
moving across the southern Plains and Mississippi valley regions,
will bring precipitation back to our area. The question will be how
much will we get, when will it start, and how long will it last? The
models overall appear way too fast with precipitation onset, the NBM
in particular. Therefore, decided to adjust the ingested model data
more toward the slower model solutions. We will have a bit of rain
and/or snow first moving into our southern counties Thursday
morning. The precip should change over to all rain by late morning.
This rain will then gradually overspread the entire area, as a well
developed area of low pressure moves out of the central Plains and
into the Great Lakes. The cold front that will be trailing from this
low will be what brings us our rain toward the end of the week. At
this point it appears that Thursday night through Friday will give
us our best chance of rain. Widespread cloud cover will be in place
during most of the period.

In general, temperatures will be above normal through out the
extended period, particularly from Thursday onward, when daily highs
will range from the 50s to lower 60s for most locations. Nightly
lows should be mostly in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be quite brisk
to begin and end the period, with generally light southerly flow in
between. The strong winds are currently forecast to occur on
Tuesday, Friday, and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2019

A potent cold front is currently moving across western Kentucky
and moving eastward, set to cross east Kentucky generally between
6 and 12Z tonight. Moderate rain showers are impacting all TAF
sites at this time, and will continue until the front passes over.
CIGS have deteriorated to MVFR or lower, and VIS is also
fluctuating based on the intensity of the rainfall. Even after the
frontal passage moves over, llvl moisture will remain trapped
under the drier air aloft, keeping MVFR CIGS in place into the day
Monday. Winds will also begin ramping up ahead of the frontal
boundary. SW winds sustained between 10 and 15 kts, and gusts
generally between 20 and 30 kts, are expected as early as 3Z, and
will also continue through the day demurrer. Meanwhile, a strong
llvl jet will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the
next few hours, proceeding the frontal passage. This will result
in strong llvl wind shear generally between 3 and 8Z overnight.
Precip will quickly taper off late tonight and into the morning
hours Monday as the front exits the state. MVFR clouds should
begin to improve to low end VFR by afternoon, but gusty SW winds
will continue.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 2 AM EST Monday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-083.

&&

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
350 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-083-310000-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Wayne-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, and Monticello
350 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A strong cold front will approach and eventually move through the
area tonight. Locally heavy rainfall will bring a threat of minor
flooding of low lying areas into tonight. Thunderstorms will also
be possible into this evening. Additionally, wind gusts of near
30 mph will be possible tonight, especially just behind the front
as it moves across eastern Kentucky.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report heavy rain or flooding.

KYZ080-084>088-104-106>120-310000-
Laurel-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-
Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-
Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of London, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin,
Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland,
Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton,
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson,
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden,
Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville,
and South Williamson
350 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A strong cold front will approach and eventually move through the
area tonight. Thunderstorms will be possible into this evening.
Additionally, wind gusts of near 30 mph will be possible tonight,
especially just behind the front as it moves across eastern
Kentucky.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GREIF/AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1053 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019

KYZ106>110-112-113-115-117-300430-
Breathitt-Perry-Floyd-Knott-Johnson-Magoffin-Morgan-Wolfe-Leslie-
1053 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG GUSTY SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN... EAST CENTRAL LESLIE...JOHNSON...NORTHEASTERN
PERRY...KNOTT...FLOYD... CENTRAL BREATHITT...MAGOFFIN AND EAST
CENTRAL WOLFE COUNTIES...

At 1051 PM EST, radar indicated heavy showers with gusty winds
located along a line extending from Belknap to Yeaddiss. Movement
was northeast at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hazard, Paintsville, Prestonsburg, Salyersville, Hindman, Mason,
Estill, Bath, Wheelwright, Martin, Pippa Passes, Wayland, Vicco,
Allen, Elic, Cody, Buck, Oaklawn Estates, Handshoe and Emmalena.

LAT...LON 3773 8336 3798 8301 3796 8299 3800 8296
      3800 8293 3796 8282 3790 8269 3740 8261
      3739 8262 3738 8265 3736 8267 3707 8324
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 230DEG 47KT 3771 8330 3709 8320

HAL