Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
405 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2019

Active weather will persist through late tonight, as a cold front
moves across the area and interacts with the warm, moist air that
is in place. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue to move across the area through early this evening. Once
the sun goes down, and we lose heating, the storms should weaken
fairly quickly, giving way to rain showers late this evening and
overnight. The last of the rain should be exiting the area early
Friday morning. A few storms this afternoon through early this
evening may produce frequent lightning, locally heavy rainfall
that could lead to flash flooding, and damaging wind gusts.
Showers and a few storms may form along the VA and TN borders
Friday afternoon, but there is some uncertainty at this time as to
how the remnants of tropical cyclone Barry will affect our weather
going into the weekend, so the forecast for Friday and Friday
night will be low confidence for now.

Temperatures should be closer to normal values on Friday, as cloud
cover and westerly winds allow temps to moderate a bit. We should
see highs on Friday mainly in the mid 80s, with some upper 80s
possible along the TN border. Lows tonight and tomorrow night
will also be quite warm, with min readings in the upper 60s
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 405 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2019

The long term will begin as surface high pressure persists over
the Commonwealth, with a stalled surface front to the south and a
cold front over the Great Lakes region. This cold front will then
make its way towards Kentucky but weaken and stall just before it
gets to the state border for the start of the work week. High
pressure will then take hold briefly to the east of the state;
however, remnants of the tropical system from the Gulf of Mexico
is expected to progress over the western Kentucky by midweek. This
is then slated to move eastward over the state Thursday.

Aloft, a northern stream trough will progress over the Great
Lakes and through the northeastern CONUS through Monday. However,
mainly zonal flow will occur for Kentucky during this time.
Meanwhile, the tropical system will move northward and be absorbed
into the northern stream flow, forming a shortwave trough that
will make its way over eastern Kentucky midweek. The models are in
decent agreement with this upper level pattern through the
extended period, but there remains some discrepancies with total
QPF at this time.

In regards to sensible weather, there will be chances for showers
and storms each day. A few showers and potentially a thunderstorm
are possible near the border between KY and TN as well as KY and
VA Saturday afternoon and evening. Chances for scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms will again be possible Sunday, but
generally occur during the afternoon and evening hours. A stalled
front to the north of the state as well as return flow from
surface high pressure to the east will keep chances of showers for
Monday and Tuesday as well, with storms possible during the
afternoon and evening yet again. By midweek, remnants of the Gulf
of Mexico tropical system will progress over Kentucky, increasing
chances for showers and storms area-wide.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees
through Sunday before they decrease slightly to near seasonal
norms through Wednesday. Highs will then return to the upper 80s
Thursday to round out the long term period. Also, low temperatures
will generally be in the upper 60s through Wednesday, with a
slight warm up to around 70 degrees expected Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2019

The TAF forecast was a challenge today. The primary focus was on
timing the formation, evolution, and movement of ongoing and new
shower and storm activity across the area. At this time we
expected scattered to numerous showers and scattered storms to
move across eastern Kentucky through late this evening. As the
afternoon wears on, and heating increases, more showers and storms
will form. The activity will likely increase a bit later today
into early tonight, as a cold front moves slowly across the
region. The showers and storms should slowly taper off overnight,
especially once the front has pushed through. Expect the front to
be out of the area between 7 and 9Z, with rain showers lingering
behind it. Once the front moves just east of us, it is forecast to
stall. This will keep a chance of rain in the forecast for areas
along the VA and TN borders through the end of the TAF period.
Any storms today will have the potential for producing isolated
strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall
that could lead to minor flooding issues. VFR conditions should be
the norm, but whenever a TAF site experiences a shower or strong
storm, we could see MVFR or worse conditions. Some fog may also
form overnight, especially at the TAF sites that experience rain
today through this evening. The fog could produce MVFR, IFR, or
perhaps even LIFR conditions where rain occurs today. Winds should
be generally light and variable.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CGAL
AVIATION...AR

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