Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
237 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2019

Weather grids were updated for recent trends and Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 439. Heating ahead of and in between
thunderstorms is leading to pockets of SBCAPE in the 3000 to 3500
J/kg range and MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Effective
bulk shear is generally 25 to 40kt. 700 mb winds are generally 35
to 50KT with freezing and wetbulb zero levels near 13kft. An MCV
moving into the region could lead to a bit of backed low level
flow and should briefly keep the bulk shear near the levels
mentioned above for the next 2 to 3 hours with a period of
enhanced effective helicities of 150 to 200 m2/s2 possible.

Considering all this, the primary threat this afternoon appears
to be wind with the strong 700 mb flow and bands of lines of
storms, but a couple of discrete, rotating cells could produce
hail up to quarter sized and an isolated tornado or two cannot be
ruled out either especially with activity moving into Estill
County.

UPDATE Issued at 1123 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2019

A few showers and even a thunderstorm just south of Wayne County
are ongoing at this time per radar imagery. An outflow boundary
has worked into the western counties where temperatures are
generally in the upper 70s with dewpoints near 70 while locations
further east are in the lower 80s with dewpoints generally in the
lower 70s. Upper elevation locations such as Black Mtn are in the
upper 60s to 70s. This leads to low level lapse rates near or
just below 7C/km. Instability is generally greatest in the east
with MUCAPE analyzed 2000 to 3000 J/kg east of the outflow with
MLCAPE a less impressive 500 to 1000 J/kg, highest in the Big
Sandy region and Cumberland Plateau area near the TN border. Some
mid and high level clouds are limiting heating a bit in some spots
though the east in the Big Sandy Region is generally cloud free
at this time.

The initial cell moving into the southwest part of the area will
continue to be monitored as it moves northeast along the
instability gradient near the outflow as gust winds will be
possible with the cell. Gusty winds should be the primary threat
as the cells develop and move east/northeast across the area this
afternoon to early evening. Model forecasts generally have MLCAPE
reaching the 800 to 1800 J/kg range during the afternoon with
effective bulk shear of about 30 to 45 KT. This should be
sufficient for organized convection primarily linear, though a
discrete cell or two cannot be ruled out. The region remains under
a slight risk of severe thunderstorms today.

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and
radar, satellite, and model trends.

UPDATE Issued at 745 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2019

Did a quick update to mainly fine tune the PoPs and QPF in the
near term. Also, added in the latest obs and trends to the T/Td
grids while removing the valley fog this morning. These updated
forecast grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 405 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2019

...Threat for Severe Storms this Afternoon and Early Evening...

07z sfc analysis shows a broad area of low pressure over the
region centered to the northwest of Kentucky. A washed out warm
front is lying through eastern Kentucky with most of our CWA in
the warm sector replete with high amounts of moisture. As a result
temperatures are quite mild currently in the mid 60s valleys to
around 70 on the ridges. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are running in the
mid to upper 60s with winds light - generally from the south.
Some mid level clouds beneath a layer of higher ones have been
enough to keep most of the fog away so far this night despite the
addition of more rain last evening. Do expect some river valley
fog to take hold around dawn as the clouds thin a bit through the
rest of the night. The radar is fairly quiet at this hour with
just a few light showers in the far southwest.

The models are in excellent agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict a potent trough swinging
through the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes today and
tonight. This trough brings substantial height falls into Kentucky
along with plenty of shortwave energy in deep layer southwest
flow. The biggest impact from this mid and upper level support
passes by this evening with flatter, but still rather quick, flow
to follow allowing a gentle rebound in heights into Tuesday.
These heights will gradually build later in the day, Tuesday and
beyond in response to upper level ridging strengthening along the
Gulf Coast. Given the good model agreement have favored a model
blend represented by the NBM in the short term along with
considerations from the deterministic CAMs and NAM12 for
details/timing.

Sensible weather will feature a likely active afternoon and early
evening through eastern Kentucky. The upper low will push a cold
front through the Ohio Valley today crossing eastern Kentucky at
peak heating. This should provide good instability for any storms
that develop along and ahead of the boundary. Forecast soundings
show some directional, but more speed, shear in place for the
updrafts that develop allowing them to become strong to severe. A
QLCS is expected to pass through later in the afternoon/early
evening with damaging wind gusts the main threat, though a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out within the line. Any discrete cells
out ahead of the main storm cluster will also have the potential
for large hail. SPC has the JKL CWA smack dab in the middle of a
Slight Risk area and that looks reasonable so will continue to
message and highlight in social media. The storms do clear out to
the east in most models around or shortly after sunset, though
some stragglers - most likely showers - will be possible in the
main line's wake. Drier air will eventually win out by dawn
Tuesday with a beautiful and mainly dry day on tap - though
temperatures will be seasonably warm in the mid 80s for highs.

Used the NBM as the starting point for all the short term grids,
making only minor, point-based adjustments to the max and min
temperatures. Did also smooth out the coarse details of the PoPs
and QPF from the guidance today with consideration to the CAMs and
NAM12 for details and timing - maximizing both elements in the
northeast parts of the CWA by late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2019

The extended will initially feature a period of hot and dry weather,
as a ridge of high pressure settles over the region. A pattern
change will be in store for the upcoming weekend, however, as a
trough of low pressure aloft moves out of Canada and into northern
New England. A weak frontal boundary extending southwestward from
the parent low may act as a trigger for shower and storm activity
across eastern Kentucky from Friday through Sunday. The models still
aren't in the best agreement regarding this scenario, so the latter
portion of the extended will be low confidence for now. Daily and
nightly temperatures should be fairly routine, with highs in the 80s
and lows in the 60s expected across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2019

Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
from west to east across the area through around 0Z. Wind gusts up
to 35kt, with locally severe gusts will be possible with this
along with brief periods of MVFR to IFR vis and CIGS. Drier
weather follows later this evening. Winds will increase from the
southwest to around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 kts through the
afternoon outside of storms. The winds will settle down and
switch more westerly following sunset.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
301 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

KYZ058-059-241930-
Estill-Powell-
301 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL POWELL AND NORTHEASTERN
ESTILL COUNTIES...

At 301 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Cottage
Furnace, or near Irvine, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stanton, Nada, Bowen, Hardwick, Rosslyn, Cottage Furnace, Lombard,
Cat Creek, Slade, Furnace, Knowlton and Rogers Chapel.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3780 8365 3779 8367 3771 8396 3775 8400
      3791 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 239DEG 25KT 3776 8391

KAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
317 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

KYZ106-107-241945-
Johnson-Morgan-
317 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY...

At 316 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Win, or 8 miles
northwest of Paintsville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kerz, Niles, Galen, Stambaugh, Hargis, Flatgap, Barnrock, Winifred,
Sip, Elna, Win, Redbush, Chandlerville and Minefork.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3796 8282 3791 8273 3790 8274 3781 8296
      3783 8299 3785 8299 3787 8302 3788 8303
      3799 8291
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 236DEG 30KT 3788 8294

KAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
319 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

KYZ058-059-108-111-241945-
Lee-Estill-Wolfe-Powell-
319 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN POWELL...EAST
CENTRAL ESTILL...NORTH CENTRAL LEE AND WEST CENTRAL WOLFE COUNTIES...

At 319 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Pryse, or near
Irvine, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pilot, Pitts, Fitchburg, Texola, Rogers, Leeco, Lombard, Slade, See,
Doe Creek, Nada, Patsey, Pryse, Cobhill, Standing Rock, Natural
Bridge S.P., Glencairn and Rogers Chapel.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3763 8393 3767 8395 3785 8371 3774 8360
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 236DEG 29KT 3767 8389

KAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
327 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

KYZ059-060-242000-
Menifee-Powell-
327 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN POWELL AND CENTRAL
MENIFEE COUNTIES...

At 327 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Campsites in
the Indian Creek area of the Daniel Boone National Forrest, or 7
miles east of Stanton, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm. A brief tornado may also be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Frenchburg, Wellington, Campsites in the Indian Creek area of the
Daniel Boone National Forrest, Fagan, Bowen, Tabor, Ratlitt, Mariba,
Denniston and Artville.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3792 8346 3792 8347 3782 8378 3786 8381
      3801 8361 3802 8357
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 235DEG 26KT 3787 8373

KAS