Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
546 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 455 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2019

Current surface analysis shows a low pressure system over central
Illinois and a stationary front extending over the upper Ohio
Valley and through the east coast. Another low pressure system is
located in the central Plains, with a cold front over central
Oklahoma and down into western Texas. With Kentucky in the warm
sector, southwesterly flow has ushered in warm, moist air and thus
a decent amount of instability this afternoon and evening. This
pattern will persist into the new work week, with showers and
storms likely. Aloft, a brief ridge in place has led to a lull in
precipitation for part of this afternoon. However, the fairly
stagnant zonal pattern aloft will continue and along with the
passage of shortwaves, this will provide upper level forcing for
storm development into the new work week.

The Hi-Res models haven't had a great handle on the evolution of
the storms for tonight. What has been fairly consistent in recent
runs has been an uptick in shower/storm activity into this
evening. In fact, scattered showers and thunderstorms have already
begun to develop, particularly in the east late this afternoon.
NAM model soundings show MUCAPE values between 3000 and over 4000
J/kg across eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile, the GFS shows MUCAPE
between 2500 to 3500 J/kg, which seems a bit more reasonable.
Shear is fairly limited and is more unidirectional. Therefore,
thinking winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning will be the
primary threats, but instances of large hail are also possible.
With PWATs from both the GFS and NAM ranging from 1.5 to 1.7
inches, locally heavy rainfall will be an additional concern as
well. For the thunderstorm threat tonight, SPC recently issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch valid through 11PM tonight, mainly for
areas along and north of the Mountain Parkway.

Temperatures will generally run above normal through the short
term period. After high temperatures today in the mid to upper
80s, highs tomorrow are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s.
Meanwhile, low temperatures tomorrow and Tuesday mornings will be
in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 546 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2019

The models remain in good agreement with a fairly amplified long
wave pattern to control through the period. Broad troughing will
remain in place across the majority of the Mississippi Valley
through the middle of the week, before subtropical ridging off to
the southeast noses in, allowing for a temporary reprieve from
more organized convection across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys
into the first part of the weekend.

Unsettled weather will control across eastern Kentucky from
Tuesday through Thursday, with a frontal boundary in place in the
vicinity at the surface, while bouts of mid and upper forcing pass
by aloft. Have stuck fairly close to the blended guidance,
although did allow for more realistic lulls in the PoPs at times,
based on diurnal trends as well as the timing of better forcing.
The best chance PoPs occur on Tuesday, and again from Wednesday
night into Thursday. PWATs will be running in the 1.5-1.7 inch
range; however, the temporary higher moisture surges that some of
the model guidance had shown from yesterday are a bit lower
today. As such, have continued to generalize the hydro potential
in the HWO.

Besides a stray shower or storm, it will generally be dry Friday
into Friday night. Moisture will then be on the increase on
Saturday and especially Sunday, as the ridge buckles a bit.
Blended PoPs seemed on the high side, given the weaker forcing, so
stuck with chance PoPs. The air mass will be muggy through the
majority of the upcoming week, with the exception of Friday, as we
see quick a period of westerly winds behind the passing front,
allow dew points to dip into the lower 60s. Highs next week will
average in the low to mid 80s, and lows in the low to mid 60s.
Generally stayed pretty close to guidance, although did favor a
bit more diurnally limited regime during the periods of higher
PoPs, and went a touch warmer on the highs towards this weekend,
given the slightly lower PoP chances favored during that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2019

A frontal boundary over the upper Ohio Valley along with an upper
level disturbance led to showers and thunderstorms earlier today.
However, a lull in precipitation is expected for the rest of the
afternoon before a resurgence later this evening. Showers will
then be the main story at times through the end of the TAF period.
Have included mention of VCTS at all TAF sites for a few hours
this evening, but then VCSH through tomorrow afternoon. Although,
much of the thunderstorm activity may be more focused in the
north, which has been the trend so far this afternoon. Will
continue to monitor and update as needed. Also, VFR conditions
will remain through the period, but VIS and CIGs may reduce in the
heavier showers. Lastly, southwest winds have generally ranged
between 4 and 10 knots, with some gusty winds observed this
afternoon. Although stronger winds are likely in any
thunderstorms, winds are expected to decrease into this evening
overall.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CGAL
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...CGAL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
744 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             SALYERSVILLE            37.75N 83.06W
06/16/2019  E1.00 INCH       MAGOFFIN           KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA AND
            RELAYED THROUGH BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

RAY