Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 210 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2019

Hourly grids have been updated for radar and observation trends.
Pops were increased into the chance range in the far south which
had been slight chance. Also heating in a few locations has led
to temperatures climbing to near or above the previous forecast so
max T was raised a couple of degrees in a few locations.

UPDATE Issued at 1049 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2019

An upper level low will move across the northern portions of the
area today and reach the Appalachians this evening. Fog and low
cloud continue to lift and mix into cumulus. A few showers and
even a storm or two are already ongoing generally for locations
north of the Mtn Parkway. The combination of somewhat limited
solar insolation and cooling aloft associated with the upper low
should lead to sufficiently steep lapse rates for numerous showers
and scattered thunderstorms from midday to early this evening,
especially along or east of a line from Stanton to Harlan.
Instability and shear will be on the lower end, but lowering
freezing and wetbulb zero levels could be enough that the
strongest updrafts could result in small hail and wind gusts to
around 40 mph also being possible. The activity should diminish
through the evening as sunset approaches and the core of the
coldest air aloft around -11C shifts into WV.

Hourly pops have been updated based on recent observation,
satellite, and radar trends as well as trends in convective
allowing models. Accordingly, pops have been increased across the
more northern and eastern sections of the area.

UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2019

Updated the forecast to continue the fog a couple more hours.
There are certainly large areas of the CWA covered in it, though
other spots are limited to just the river valleys. For this, have
extended the SPS until after 9 am. Otherwise the forecast is on
track with just some limited PoP and Sky tweaking for the next few
hours. Also, incorporated the latest T/Td obs and trends into the
forecast grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2019

07z sfc analysis shows a weak area of lower pressure over the
area - a reflection of an approaching upper level trough. This is
maintaining the light winds - and high moisture content from the
earlier showers and storms while also allowing for some patches
of thinner or clearer skies. While a few stray showers are
possible from this through the rest of the night into dawn, the
biggest effect has been areas of dense fog found through the
northern parts of eastern Kentucky and in the valleys elsewhere
across the CWA. For this, an SPS is in effect detailing the
visibility restrictions. This SPS will likely need to be extended
through dawn until 10 am. Otherwise, temperature readings and
dewpoints are nearly the same in the low to mid 60s - maxing out
the RH coincident with the fog. Light winds and low clouds
accompany the fog areas, as well.

The models are in very good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all clearly depict a dual-poled
trough consolidating into one center and passing through Kentucky
during the morning and afternoon hours. Broad northwest flow will
then continue through the region locked in place by deep troughing
over central and eastern Canada and a strong, but currently beat
down, ridge to the south and west. Additional weak impulses
follow through the state on Saturday, in quickening mid level
flow, with only a limited rebound in heights following today's
shortwave passage. Given near excellent model agreement will
favor a blended starting point for the grids with reliance on the
details from the higher resolution CAMs - especially for todays
PoPs.

Sensible weather will feature the fog breaking up and dissipating
by mid morning followed by some partial sunshine and building
instability - aided by the cool pocket aloft accompanying the
passing trough. This will result in showers and thunderstorms
re-blossoming by midday - slightly favoring the northern and
eastern parts of the CWA. Small hail will also be a concern from
the stronger thunderstorms owing to the lower freezing levels
today and this notion will be highlighted in the forthcoming
morning HWO. Look for a small ridge to valley split tonight for
temperatures on the leading edge of a weak sfc high pressure area
in bound in the wake of the upper trough. This high will bring
slightly less humid air to eastern Kentucky for Saturday and a
minima - but not nil - for storm chances even in the afternoon.

The CONSShort and ShortBlend were used as the starting point for
all the grids with some near term adjustments per the latest obs
and sky cover/fog placement. Did also tweak the low temperatures
tonight for more of a ridge to valley difference across the area.
As for PoPs, adjusted these to go along with the timing and
placement of the HRRR initially and then the NAM12 later this
evening and beyond.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2019

The extended portion of the forecast begins on Saturday night with
quite an active pattern in place across the CONUS. The longwave
trough over the northeast will bring a shortwave swinging through
the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic States. This wave will bring a cold
front through eastern Kentucky Saturday night through the day on
Sunday. Model soundings suggest as this front moves through, enough
heating through midday will be enough for convection to develop late
morning. Most Unstable CAPE values across the area suggest a 2000 to
3000 J/Kg potential, with other models such as the SREF showing 1000
to 2000 J/Kg. Thus, there could be a few strong thunderstorms by
midday Sunday and into the afternoon. Due to timing as what the SREF
may be suggesting , the likelihood of this will be in the far
eastern portions of the area is at all. Any earlier cloud cover or
convection will certainly dull this potential. This feature will
push through Kentucky by Sunday evening. This will lead to a cool
down across the area for the next few days. Dry conditions and
cooler temps will be in place through Tuesday night. In fact, MOS
guidance suggests lows in the upper 40s in some valleys for lows for
Monday morning and Tuesday morning. With clearing skies after the
front on Sunday, this may set the stage for some fog development
Monday morning. The high pressure in place for Monday will be
centered over the Middle Atlantic region with the mid level ridge
suppressed to the Gulf States.

The upper level pattern maintains a more zonal type flow through the
period with the upper level flow finally brining a stronger short
wave to push the surface high to the east by Wednesday. This will
feature another round of showers and thunderstorms. The pattern
setting up next week with the ridge beginning to build into the MS
River Valley will put the Midwest with the upper level flow in more
of a NW flow. The pattern becomes highlighted with a couple
shortwaves diving southeast out of Canada. This pattern also
includes Kentucky in direct line of the flow. Wednesday and Thursday
next week could be highlighted with an MCS pattern featuring these
waves moving into the Midwest and then further southeast. Will keep
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Wed and Thu next week.
This period will need monitored as the models get a better handle on
the pattern. Accompanying this pattern will be high temps rebounding
into the lower 80s each day as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2019

An upper level low moving across the area will lead to scattered
showers and thunderstorms through around 0Z. Locations directly
affected will experience brief MVFR to as low as IFR CIGS and or
vis. Outside of the convection, VFR should prevail through around
3Z. Then stratus and or fog is expected to develop and affect the
area with some IFR and MVFR vis and or cigs, with this improving
to VFR in all locations by 14Z. Winds will be mainly be 10kt from
the west to southwest for most of the period, though any outflow
winds could reach 30kt.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1039 AM EDT Fri May 31 2019

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-011745-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
1039 AM EDT Fri May 31 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible today. The strongest of these will be
capable of gusty winds and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will be possible from Saturday afternoon through
Sunday evening and again on Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

JP

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