Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
338 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...Strong to Severe storms possible this afternoon, with a chance
for Tornadoes, mainly across SE GA...

.Near Term.../through Tonight/...

High pressure is to the east southeast this afternoon, as a cold
front approaches from the west. Between these two features, an
enhanced pressure gradient has resulted in breezy conditions,
with highs above normal.

While convection is possible across the whole forecast area this
afternoon, two main areas of convection are expected to affect
the region.

One area could cluster near coastal NE FL, as diurnal instability
increases in the warm and moist airmass. The storms that develop
in this area during the mid afternoon, will then move northeast
and off the coast later this afternoon. A few of these storms
could become strong.

The next area is the line moving east into forecast area just
ahead of the front. This line will move into central portion of
region by 00z, and weaken as it loses diurnal heating, and better
support moves to the north with the surface low. Strong to severe
storm potential over inland SE GA this afternoon, with a few
isolated tornadoes possible.

The front will move southeast of the forecast area overnight, with
high pressure building from the west. Noticeably drier and cooler
air will advect in during the overnight with lows falling into the
50s.

&&

.Short Term.../Monday through Thursday/...

High pressure will build to the west Monday, to the north Monday
night, then to the northeast Tuesday, and to the east Wednesday
through Thursday. With the high to the west Monday, a dry northwest
flow will provide sunny skies, and keep temperatures a little below
normal. Skies will remain clear into Monday night, and with the
exception of coastal NE FL, temperatures will fall into the 40s.
With the high to the north, the flow becomes more north
northeasterly Monday night. This will result in warmer temperatures
over coastal NE FL, due to the flow coming across the relatively
warmer coastal waters. Skies should remain mostly clear into
Tuesday, with the flow more onshore. Temperatures will begin to
moderate back into the 80s inland, but hold in the 70s along the
coast due to flow across relatively cooler waters.

As the high builds more to the east mid week, the flow will become
more southeast to southerly resulting in an increasingly warm and
moist airmass. By Thursday, enough diurnal instability is expected
for isolated to scattered showers/storms to develop and move north
across the region. Temperatures will continue to moderate, with
highs near 90 inland by Thursday.

&&

.Long Term.../Thursday night through Sunday/...

High pressure will move to the east southeast Thursday night, as a
cold front approaches from the west. This front is expected to reach
western counties during the morning hours Friday, then sweep east
across region through the day on Friday. With this timing the front
could cross the region during peak diurnal heating leading to a
round of strong to possibly severe storms Friday. Troughing will
remain across the area Friday night, with high pressure building
from the southwest Saturday afternoon. With the troughing in place
Friday night into Saturday clouds will linger along with the chance
for showers. The high will build to the west Saturday night then to
the north Sunday.

Near to above normal temperatures expected for Friday, which will
depend on the timing of the front. Temperatures will trend below
normal Saturday, and near normal for Sunday.

&&

.Marine...

A cold front will sweep east across the region through Tonight.
Troughing will remain across the region into Monday helping to keep
winds elevated as high pressure builds further to the west. The high
will build to the north northwest Monday night, then to the
northeast Tuesday, then toward the east Wednesday into Thursday. A
cold front is expected to cross the region Friday with a round of
storms expected.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Today, Low Monday
              NE FL Moderate Today, Low Monday

&&

Fire Weather...

MinRH values could reach critical thresholds Monday and Tuesday. An
elevated fire danger will be possible Monday, depending on how fast
the winds subside.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR ceilings of 3000-4000 feet will prevail at the regional terminals
through around 20Z. Sustained southerly surface winds  of 15-20 knots
will prevail outside of any thunderstorm development through 23Z,
with frequent gusts of 25-30 knots expected. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop east of GNV towards 20Z and will affect the
remainder of the regional terminals through 23Z, with some potential
for strong downburst winds in excess of 35 knots and IFR conditions
possible within stronger activity. Showers and thunderstorms will
reach the GNV terminal just after 23Z, with a brief period of IFR
conditions and gusty winds possible. Breezy southwesterly winds,
sustained near 15 knots, will shift to westerly after 06Z at the
regional terminals as showers end by 04Z and VFR conditions prevail
thereafter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  70  49  80 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  58  72  56  74 /  20   0   0   0
JAX  57  75  53  79 /  20   0   0   0
SGJ  60  76  58  78 /  20   0   0   0
GNV  57  75  51  83 /  30   0   0   0
OCF  58  76  52  84 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

23/Nelson

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
333 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

FLZ037-140-142015-
Putnam FL-Eastern Marion FL-
333 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARION AND
SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

* At 332 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Moss Bluff, or 8 miles north of
  Emeralda, moving northeast at 25 mph.

* Wind gusts up to 50 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Crescent City, Pomona Park, Salt Springs, Juniper Springs,
  Fruitland, Moss Bluff, Lake Como and Georgetown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2901 8184 2907 8186 2909 8191 2914 8194
      2957 8153 2949 8152 2945 8149 2940 8148
      2938 8145 2932 8168 2928 8164 2905 8164
      2905 8166 2896 8166 2896 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 212DEG 23KT 2908 8185

ENYEDI