Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
410 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2019

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO tUESDAY...

.NEAR TERM (Through Tuesday night)...

Closed low across northern La opens up and lifts Ne to
the Carolinas by the end of the period which drags a
positive tilted trough across the area by late Tuesday.
Increasing south to SW flow ahead of the trough will
advect moisture and instability...in addition to increasing
bulk shear...resulting in increasing chances of strong to
severe storms by late this afternoon into Tuesday. A line
of showers and storms expected to move in from the gulf
first affecting the Suwannee Valley and inland Se Ga this
afternoon. Another cluster of storms expected to get going
late this afternoon into early evening as what is left of
the line of convection moving in from the gulf collides with
addition storms associated with the east coast seabreeze.
These storms will re-develop near U.S. Hwy 301 and move Ne
over the St Johns River Basin and the coast late afternoon
and early evening and gradually move offshore during the
evening. Some of these storms may be strong to severe with
strong winds and hail the main concerns. SPC has the entire
area under a marginal risk of severe wx this afternoon and
evening. There will tend to be a lull in activity from late
this evening into the overnite with warm and muggy conditions
prevailing with patchy low clouds and fog possible.

While timing has slowed some...most high-res models continue
to indicate a line of storms will get going and move across
the area...first across the Suwannee Valley and inland Se Ga
during the morning and across the remainder of the area late
morning into the early afternoon. There will be some lull in
activity in the afternoon as the dry slot moves in over the
area. However...the concern is that there will be additional
heating in the afternoon with the approach of the upper
trough that could lead to the eruption of severe storms
especially across Se Ga during the afternoon and early
evening with damaging winds and hail the main concerns
and SPC has a portion of Se Ga under a slight risk of
severe weather with a marginal risk elsewhere. Slightly drier air
begins to move in behind the cold front by late Tuesday night.

.SHORT TERM (Wednesday-Thursday night)...

A few showers possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning as the associated cold front moves through
the remainder of the area as an area of high pressure
builds in from the mid Atlantic providing Ne flow
across the area on Wednesday. Winds quickly veer to
Se Thursday as the high pushes east allowing for
a return of moisture and a slight chance of inland
storms on Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Friday-Monday)...

Fairly good agreement with High pressure on Friday continuing
to move into the Western Atlantic and southerly flow with Highs
warming back into the mid to upper 80s inland and near 80 along
the coast with mainly dry conditions expected.

High pressure continues in the western Atlantic this weekend
into early next week while a series of decaying fronts move
across the area. This leads to a continuation of warm and
muggy conditions with scattered mainly afternoon and evening
showers and storms. Above normal temps with highs well into the
80s inland and lower 80s at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...Breezy south to southeasterly flow will prevail this
afternoon. An east coast sea breeze was moving inland this
afternoon, and storms are forecast to develop across the interior
and move towards the east coast TAF sites between 20Z and 23Z.
Strong to severe storms are possible near the TAF sites, with
storms then moving into the western Atlantic in the evening. A few
showers could then move into the area overnight tonight. A squall
line is forecast to develop west of the region overnight tonight
and then move into area around dawn on Tuesday, impacting the TAF
sites through the morning and into the early afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...Winds will shift to out of the S-SW today with a chance
for strong thunderstorm developments today and Tuesday as a cold
front moves into the region from out of the west, completing its
passage late Tuesday and early Wednesday, shifting the flow to
onshore mid week. Small craft exercise caution offshore.

Rip Currents: Low risk anticipated Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  81  61  80 /  60  70  40  10
SSI  66  78  63  75 /  50  60  40  10
JAX  66  83  62  79 /  50  70  20  10
SGJ  66  81  63  77 /  60  60  20  10
GNV  66  81  62  81 /  40  60  10  10
OCF  66  81  62  82 /  40  50  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

&&

PP/AK/MZ

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