Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
305 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

.Near Term.../through Tonight/...

Cold front with associated convection will move into SE GA during
the middle of this afternoon, then move SE across the region through
this evening. Convection is expected to continue along and ahead of
this boundary. Potential continues for strong to severe storms in
the watch area, with isolated tornadoes possible. High pressure will
build from the west northwest overnight, as rain chances taper off.

Temperatures will fall overnight after frontal passage, with lows
generally ranging from the upper 30s far inland to the mid upper 40s
coast.

&&

.Short Term.../Wednesday through Saturday/...

...Freezing temperatures common inland Wednesday night...

Strong high pressure will continue to build to the west northwest
through Wednesday into Wednesday night. The high will build to the
north Thursday through Friday. The region will be between an
inverted trough along the east coast, and a developing wave over the
central gulf Friday night, as high pressure is located to the
northeast. The wave over the gulf is expected to further develop on
Saturday, as energy from this system pivots east across FL.

Cold advection to persist Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures
will be below normal during this period. Freezing temperatures will
be common inland Wednesday night, with freezing temperatures
possible again Thursday night over inland SE GA.

Temperatures will moderate Friday into Saturday, with readings
trending toward near to above normal.

&&

.Long Term.../Saturday night through Tuesday/...

Long range models diverge on the exact handling of the gulf low, and
how fast it moves across the region during this period. Regardless
of the solution it looks like an unsettled period from Saturday
night through at least Monday night, with periods of rain, and
potential for thunderstorms. High pressure builds to the north
Tuesday, but the effect of the low pressure system may linger.

Temperatures will trend near normal this period.

&&

.Marine...

Strong cold front will cross region from the northwest through this
evening. High pressure will then build from the west northwest. The
high will build to the north Thursday into Friday. Low pressure will
provide an unsettled weather pattern over the weekend.

Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  39  54  31  53  32 /  20  10   0   0   0
SSI  44  55  38  54  42 /  50  10   0   0   0
JAX  44  57  37  58  44 /  60  10   0   0   0
SGJ  47  57  43  61  51 /  70  10   0   0  20
GNV  44  57  35  60  44 /  60  10   0   0   0
OCF  46  59  37  63  46 /  70  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Friday for
     Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
     Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to
     Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St.
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
211 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

GAZ132-134>136-151-250-171945-
Pierce GA-Bacon GA-Appling GA-Coffee GA-Wayne GA-Northern Ware GA-
211 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN COFFEE...NORTHWESTERN
PIERCE...NORTH CENTRAL WARE...BACON...WEST CENTRAL WAYNE AND
SOUTHEASTERN APPLING COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EST...

* At 211 PM EST, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Dixie Union, or 9 miles south
  of Alma, moving northeast at 50 mph.

* Wind gusts up to 50 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Alma, Surrency, Bristol, New Lacy and Bickley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EST for southeastern
Georgia.

LAT...LON 3152 8195 3132 8257 3146 8267 3181 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 237DEG 51KT 3142 8253

AK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
216 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

FLZ020-GAZ132-149-162-163-250-350-172000-
Hamilton FL-Atkinson GA-Clinch GA-Coffee GA-Echols GA-
Northern Ware GA-Southern Ware GA-
216 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HAMILTON...SOUTHEASTERN
COFFEE...ECHOLS...SOUTHEASTERN ATKINSON...NORTHWESTERN WARE AND
CLINCH COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EST...

* At 216 PM EST, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Du Pont
  to 6 miles southwest of Madison. Movement was east at 50 mph.

* Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Waycross, Jasper, Homerville, Jennings, Argyle, Statenville, Du
  Pont, Boggy Bay, Mayday and Pebble Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EST for northern
Florida...and southeastern Georgia.

LAT...LON 3063 8314 3079 8313 3081 8310 3085 8309
      3085 8301 3087 8297 3109 8297 3132 8277
      3140 8265 3132 8257 3136 8239 3129 8239
      3122 8231 3122 8228 3121 8229 3048 8286
      3050 8324 3062 8327 3063 8331
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 251DEG 46KT 3101 8288 3039 8347

AK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
241 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

FLZ140-172030-
Eastern Marion FL-
241 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM EST...

* At 241 PM EST, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles northeast of Emeralda,
  moving northeast at 25 mph.

* Small hail, winds in excess of 45 mph, and minor flooding due to
  heavy rainfall is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Juniper Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2898 8184 2903 8185 2907 8187 2927 8164
      2905 8164 2905 8166 2896 8166 2896 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 243DEG 21KT 2903 8176

AK

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