Gale Warning 4, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
858 PM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

...WINDY AND COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH MARINE AND COASTAL HAZARDS...

.UPDATE...
Cold frontal boundary across NE FL this evening from Ocala to
Palm Coast and still drifting southward and have yet to see any
rainfall from this feature on radar imagery so will keep any Pops
silent and below 10% while a mixture of lower clouds and upper
level cirrus will continue across the region for at least partly
cloudy skies overnight. The strengthening North winds overnight
will keep lows elevated in the 50s across NE FL while some areas
of inland SE GA will fall into the 40s as the cooler airmass
filters in towards morning. Main feature on Saturday will be
strong High pressure center that will build into the Carolinas and
bring Windy Northeast winds at the coast and Breezy NE flow over
inland areas. Expect the need for a Wind Advisory by the afternoon
hours along the Atlantic Coast especially along the NE FL coastal
counties where Northeast winds at 20-30G35-40 mph are expected,
while slightly weaker NE winds of 15-20G30-35 mph will develop
over inland areas. Northeast flow off the cooler Atlantic waters
and overall cooler airmass behind the front will hold Max Temps to
slightly below normal levels in the 60s inland and upper 50s/near
60 along the coast. The Northeast flow off the Atlantic will
slowly begin to acquire enough moisture for some coastal showers
mainly from St Augustine southward through Flagler county by the
afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR with CIGS in the 3000-6000 ft range tonight lingering
through Sat Morning. NE Winds increase after 12z to 13-18G23-28
knots on Saturday Morning, then MVFR CIGS begin to impact SGJ by
15z, then into other TAF sites later in the day from 18z-00z.

&&

.MARINE...
North to Northeast winds to increase following the frontal passage
tonight reaching 20 to 25 knots during the overnight hours with
building seas. As strong high pressure builds north of the waters
on Saturday, expect stronger Northeast winds to 20 to 30 knots
with frequent gusts to gale force expected and a Gale Watch has
been posted that will continue into Saturday Night.

Rip Currents: High Risk of rip currents to develop in the strong
NE Flow on Saturday along with building coastal surf/breakers into
the 5-7 ft range by the late afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With strong high pressure building just North of SE GA/NE FL the
sea level pressures (SLP) will rise above 1030 mb for the first
time in quite a while and may approach daily record high levels
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Daily Record High SLP's
are listed below for the climate sites...

JAX 1036.2 mb 02-09-1933 1032.8 mb 02-10-1989
GNV 1033.9 mb 02-09-1989 1032.8 mb 02-10-1989
SSI 1034.5 mb 02-09-1989 1032.8 mb 02-10-2017
AMG 1035.2 mb 02-09-1989 1032.8 mb 02-10-2017

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  43  60  47  59 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  51  56  51  57 /   0   0  30  40
JAX  51  61  52  65 /   0   0  40  50
SGJ  55  63  58  68 /   0  30  60  50
GNV  53  66  55  73 /   0   0  30  40
OCF  54  70  57  76 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM EST Saturday through Sunday
     evening for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-
     Coastal St. Johns.

     High Surf Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 5 AM EST Sunday for
     Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St.
     Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM EST Saturday through Sunday
     evening for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Gale Watch from 7 AM EST Saturday through Saturday evening for
     Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Saturday for Waters
     from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for
     Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
     Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to
     Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for Coastal
     waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

Hess/Bricker