Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
349 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday: Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are occuring this afternoon, with the most coverage
of storms mainly for areas along and north of the Highway 82
corridor. With 2.0 inch plus PWATS, an upper short wave and the
remnant circulation of Barry expect the chances for showers and
storms to continue tonight mainly for areas in the north. With the
ongoing backwater issues and the continued chance for storms,
will leave the limited risk for flash flooding going through the
overnight hours. Expect the risk for severe storms to continue
into the early evening hours, but should diminish by sunset as we
lose afternoon heating.

The upper trough and the remnant moisture from Barry will shift east
on Wednesday, with the best chance of showers/storms over areas in
the north-central and north-east. Currently the models suggest the
heaviest rainfall potential will remain north of our area. Another
very humid day is on tap with highs around 90. /15/

Wednesday night through Monday: Mid level ridging will be
underway in earnest at the beginning of the period as remnants of
Barry finally push off to the east. With warmth building aloft,
convection will become very hard to come by Thursday and Friday.
Though convection will be hard to come by, the heat will not as
maximums rebound into the mid 90s. This with dewpoints in the low
to mid 70s will push heat indices back up to around 105 each
afternoon. Will continue limited risk of heat stress in the HWO.

Mid level weakness will rotate around the ridge and approach the
forecast area from the east by the weekend. While sufficient
moisture will already be in place, cooler air aloft will promote
better coverages of diurnal convection through the weekend.

Meanwhile, a potent shortwave will be diving south through the upper
and mid MS valleys over the weekend. As it moves into the lower MS
valley Monday, its attendant cold front will be close enough to
promote convective generation across mainly northern areas
Monday afternoon and evening./GG/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Most sites are reporting VFR conditions early this afternoon, and
expect these conditions to continue outside of any thundestorm
activity into the overnight hours. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions will
be possible at TAF sites with any shower/thunderstorm. MVFR
conditions are anticipated after 08-09Z with the development of
stratus across much of the area overnight. Southerly winds will
prevail this afternoon, with a few gusts to 20 mph possible./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  90  74  95 /  12  11   4  10
Meridian      73  93  74  96 /   9  13   6  17
Vicksburg     74  89  74  93 /  11  12   4   7
Hattiesburg   72  93  74  96 /   5  10   4  17
Natchez       73  89  74  92 /   3   8   4  13
Greenville    74  90  75  93 /  30  25   4   9
Greenwood     74  90  75  93 /  27  35   4  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
338 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025-026-034-172045-
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Washington-
338 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, north central Mississippi, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through early this evening

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Wednesday

Through early this evening, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and
hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, localized flash
flooding is possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas.
Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Wednesday, caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as heat
index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be
possible with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values near 105 degrees is
possible for the entire outlook area Thursday through Friday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ016-023-025-MSZ029-030-032-033-037-042-043-047-048-172045-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Webster-Clay-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Attala-Yazoo-Madison MS-Warren-Hinds-
338 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through early this evening

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Wednesday

Through early this evening, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and
hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Wednesday, caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as heat
index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be
possible with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values near 105 degrees is
possible for the entire outlook area Thursday through Friday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

LAZ007>009-015-MSZ027-028-035-036-040-041-172045-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Carroll-Montgomery-
Humphreys-Holmes-Issaquena-Sharkey-
338 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through early this evening

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Wednesday

Through early this evening, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and
hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Wednesday, caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as heat
index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be
possible with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values near 105 degrees is
possible for the entire outlook area Thursday through Friday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ024-026-MSZ031-038-039-044>046-049>066-072>074-172045-
Catahoula-Concordia-Lowndes-Winston-Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-
Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
338 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Wednesday

Wednesday, caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as heat
index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be
possible with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values near 105 degrees is
possible for the entire outlook area Thursday through Friday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

15

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

*DANGEROUS HEAT*
Extreme...Extreme heat is expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees for multiple days. Heat stroke continues
 to be a major concern.
Significant...Dangerous heat expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees. Heat stroke will be a significant
 concern.
Elevated...Dangerous heat likely with peak heat index values
 ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be likely.
Limited...Caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as
 heat index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will
 be possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

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