Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
411 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Mainly isolated intense convection over
portions of east central LA at the moment along surface warm
front. Presently, expect these storms to continue moving east
along the boundary with more isolated convection developing along
the boundary as it continues to lift northward over the next few
hours. More widespread convection will develop over the ArkLaMiss
Delta later into this evening as surface low over the ArkLaTex
moves into eastern AR. While shear away from the boundary is not
overly impressive, steep mid level lapse rates should compensate
sufficiently for robust updrafts and a severe threat continuing
through midnight with large hail and damaging winds being the main
threats. Loss of heating and diminishing wind fields later
tonight will allow for convection to wind down and low clouds to
fill back in with the cooling boundary layer.

The forecast area looks to stay firmly in the warm sector Sunday
with no appreciable approaching features for much of the day. Thus,
only expecting isolated convection in locations where the cap is
weakest. Cap looks to diminish by late afternoon as the surface low
over southeast TX begins to lift out to the northeast. An uptick in
convective coverage and intensity should occur from the southwest by
late afternoon./26/

Sunday night through Monday night: A couple of small
perturbations aloft will periodically enhance storm coverage
during the evening before the main upper trough begins to approach
late Sunday night into early Monday. Increasing low level flow
and deep layer shear will support organized storms and a slight
risk for severe weather, so will continue to mention this in the
HWO/graphics. Additional storms may develop with heating Monday in
direct association with the upper trough. Timing details in the
Sunday night through Monday period are of low confidence. Look for
showers to end Monday night as the trough moves off to east.

Tuesday through Saturday: A shortwave ridge will bring generally
dry and warm weather to the ArkLaMiss region during the mid to
late week, but will need to monitor convective potential with a
trough passage for Thursday into Friday. At this time it looks
like the trough will pass before for a significant storm/severe
weather threat can develop. High pressure will briefly move in
behind the trough as we go into the weekend, but another
significant system may be quick to follow. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion: MVFR ceilings early in the period will become
VFR by mid afternoon with isolated showers and thunderstorms
developing. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will move
through the GLH, GWO and GTR areas between 07/00Z and 07/06Z where
IFR conditions will exist along with west northwest winds from 15
to 25 knots and gusts from 25 to 35 knots. Elsewhere, isolated
showers and thunderstorms will persist through 07/06Z. Vicinities
impacted by these storms will see brief lowerings of ceiling and
visibility to IFR. After 07/06Z, MVFR to IFR conditions will
develop and linger through mid morning before improving./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  80  65  77 /  35  31  81  69
Meridian      65  82  65  78 /  44  24  70  73
Vicksburg     67  80  64  77 /  45  58  88  69
Hattiesburg   66  80  66  79 /  15  30  72  72
Natchez       67  80  65  75 /  18  69  84  65
Greenville    66  78  63  75 /  71  65  90  71
Greenwood     66  81  63  76 /  74  37  88  78

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
454 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-072200-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Washington-Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-
454 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight

Severe storms are expected to affect the outlook area through the
evening. Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and hail to golf ball size
will be the primary concerns, with some potential for a couple of
tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

Additional storms with heavy rainfall will be likely late Sunday
through Sunday night. A few severe storms and localized flash
flooding will be possible. The primary severe weather concerns
will be damaging wind gusts to 60 mph, hail to quarter size, and
possibly a few tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
and Sunday night.

LAZ016-023-025-MSZ026>033-036>039-042>050-053-072200-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-
Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-
Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-
Claiborne-
454 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight

The threat for severe storms will continue through the evening.
Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary concerns, with
some potential for a couple of tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

Additional storms with heavy rainfall will be likely late Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. A few severe storms and localized
flash flooding will be possible. The primary severe weather
concerns will be damaging wind gusts to 60 mph, hail to quarter
size, and possibly a few tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
and Sunday night.

LAZ024-026-MSZ051-052-054>066-072>074-072200-
Catahoula-Concordia-Newton-Lauderdale-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-
Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
454 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and
south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Tonight

A few severe storms will be possible this evening. The primary
concerns will be for wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to
quarter size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

Storms with heavy rainfall will be possible Sunday night. A few
severe storms and localized flash flooding will be possible. The
primary severe weather concerns will be damaging wind gusts to 60
mph, hail to quarter size, and possibly a few tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
and Sunday night.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

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