Severe Thunderstorm Warning 337, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
345 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019

.DISCUSSION...

This evening through tomorrow...

Afternoon thunderstorm activity has been restricted to the
southern and western portions of the region as the ArkLaMiss
remains on the western periphery of a steep and stagnant ridge
centered over the SE United States. Scattered strong storms will
continue to be possible in these areas through the rest of the
afternoon and into the early evening hours. The main threats with
any strong storms will be gusty winds with a secondary threat of
small hail. Storms will subside as we loose day time heating. The
heat threat was removed from the HWO for the rest of the afternoon
due to the storm coverage in the areas with the highest heat
indices. Lows tonight will fall into the lower 70s areawide.

Although temperatures tomorrow will increase to well above average
at most locations, they will remain a few degrees cooler than days
previous. Thus, no heat wording is the HWO is expected to be
needed. Expect highs to top out in the mid 90s. The overall
synoptic pattern will remain relatively unchanged with the region
remaining on the western periphery of the steep ridge. Southerly
flow will help to increase moisture in the southern portions of
our region tomorrow. Storms chances will be best along and south
of the I-20 corridor tomorrow afternoon.

Tuesday night through the weekend...

Hot conditions will continue through the end of the week as ridging
remains across the southeast. Highs each day will top out mainly in
the mid 90s. Dewpoints should be low enough to keep heat index
values below 100 for most locations. There could be an isolated
shower or storm during peak heating, but it looks like most
locations will remain dry through the week.

Looking to the weekend, a weak cold front will approach the region
from the north, but will most likely not make it this far south.
Chances for showers and storms will be better this weekend,
especially across the south in association with a westward moving
disturbance in the Gulf. Highs will be just a tad cooler with better
coverage of clouds/convection, ranging from the upper 80s to the
lower 90s. /27/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:

VFR conditions will continue to persist at most TAF sites
throughout the 24hr TAF period. Scattered thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon into early evening near our southern and
western most sites. This prompted the additions of VCTS at KGLH,
KJAN, KHKS, KPIB, and KHBG. Visbys will be impacted at any site
that is impacted by an afternoon storm. Coverage of storms should
begin to decrease by 00z and widespread VFR will prevail through
the rest of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  94  72  93 /  25   8   4   9
Meridian      73  95  71  94 /  15   8   5   9
Vicksburg     74  96  72  95 /  42  10   5   7
Hattiesburg   73  92  72  94 /  21  14   5  11
Natchez       73  93  73  93 /  42  12   5   9
Greenville    73  96  72  95 /  31  13   5   6
Greenwood     73  95  72  94 /   6  13   5   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

JPM3

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
312 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
102015-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
312 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

3

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

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