Severe Thunderstorm Warning 298, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1001 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for morning discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dewpoints in the I-59 corridor were in the lower 70s for the most
part. Latest guidance suggests mixing in the afternoon will lower
moisture values even more across the southeast and heat indices
may not peak in the lower 100s. For the northwest portions of the
area, there appears to be more convection. Right now the complex
over southwest Arkansas has been very slowly spreading east. Hi-
res has it reaching the CWA by early afternoon and spreading a
little further southeast into central MS than the previous run.
Looks like there could be a little more convection around/maybe
clouds as the complex gets closer. Will hold on to the limited
heating for now. Clouds were thinning so expecting temps to
quickly rise, plus there will be a few hours before convection
develops. Update was already out.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will continue through most of the day. There will
be chances that a few sites will see limiting conditions due to
thunderstorms this afternoon. There was enough confidence in
coverage to add a VCTS group at each site. Storm coverage will
diminish after 00Z. /JPM3/ME

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  73  93  75 /  31  17  33  18
Meridian      97  73  95  75 /  31  22  23  12
Vicksburg     92  73  92  76 /  29  17  25  19
Hattiesburg   98  75  94  76 /  17  22  29  20
Natchez       96  74  93  75 /  13  17  20  14
Greenville    91  75  91  76 /  33  22  30  20
Greenwood     91  73  91  75 /  28  21  30  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1223 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

ARZ074-LAZ024-026-MSZ018-019-060>066-072>074-081730-
Ashley-Catahoula-Concordia-Bolivar-Sunflower-Adams-Franklin MS-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-
Forrest-
1223 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwest and south
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...remainder of today

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices around 105
degrees may result in limited heat stress issues through this
afternoon.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices around 105
will lead to heat stress issues throughout the region on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

ARZ075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ025-034>059-081730-
Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-
Franklin LA-Tensas-Leflore-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-
Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-
Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-
Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-
1223 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through early evening

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...remainder of today

Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of producing damaging wind
gusts, will be possible through early this evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices around 105
degrees may result in limited heat stress issues through this
afternoon.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices around 105
will lead to heat stress issues throughout the region on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

MSZ027-028-032-033-081730-
Carroll-Montgomery-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
1223 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern portions of
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through early evening

Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of producing damaging wind
gusts, will be possible through early this evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices around 105
will lead to heat stress issues throughout the region on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

MSZ026-029>031-081730-
Grenada-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
1223 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern and northeastern
portions of central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices around 105
will lead to heat stress issues throughout the region on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
Extreme...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees for 3 or
 more days in a row and/or air temperatures greater than 107
 degrees.
Significant...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees
 and/or air temperatures greater than 105 degrees.
Elevated...Maximum heat index 105 to 110 degrees and/or air
 temperatures greater than 103 degrees.
Limited...Maximum heat index near 105 degrees and/or air
 temperatures 100 to 103 degrees.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

ARZ075-LAZ008-009-MSZ034-040-071815-
Chicot AR-East Carroll LA-West Carroll LA-Washington MS-Issaquena MS-
1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CHICOT COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN EAST CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN WEST CARROLL PARISHES...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA COUNTIES UNTIL 115
PM CDT...

At 1223 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Eudora, moving southeast at 40 mph. There was also
a cluster of storms near Glen Allen, also moving southeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Eudora around 1230 PM CDT.
  Gassoway and Millikin around 1240 PM CDT.
  Glen Allan around 1255 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Mayersville and
Kilbourne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3310 9146 3318 9142 3310 9092 3282 9105
      3297 9144 3298 9144 3298 9145 3299 9145
      3299 9144 3301 9144 3301 9146
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 293DEG 35KT 3307 9138

7

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

MSZ046-071815-
Kemper MS-
1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN KEMPER COUNTY UNTIL
115 PM CDT...

At 1250 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near De Kalb, or 7 miles southeast of Preston, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  De Kalb around 115 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3271 8876 3283 8885 3293 8870 3293 8851
      3276 8851
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 326DEG 10KT 3283 8872

TW