Severe Thunderstorm Warning 286, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
Issued by National Weather Service Nashville TN
1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move southward,
potentially impacting GTR/GWO by 19Z and other terminals in the
afternoon to early evening. If a thunderstorm passes directly over
a terminal, MVFR conditions will be possible. Exact
timing/location of these storms to each terminal is a bit
uncertain, but these storms are slow moving. Showers/thunderstorms
will move completely out of the area by 03Z with clearing from
north to south. VFR conditions will remain into the morning hours.
By 12Z tomorrow, another batch of showers could impact GLH. Light
winds expected through the TAF period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Minor update to the forecast this morning to reflect current CAM
guidance. Models still show the upper low over the mid MS River
Valley heading southward slowly during the day today, which will
provide some support for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Strong MLCAPE will exist over the region however deep layer shear
still looks very weak. Existing convection over western
TN/northern MS will likely continue to develop on outflow from
morning convection, and looks like that outflow will continue to
help develop additional storms as it heads southward towards
central MS. CAM consensus has some broken convection developing
along the boundary in the early afternoon, and additional storms
mid to late afternoon as well. Severe potential looks to be
limited to damaging wind gusts with the stronger storms that may
develop, but heavy rain will also be possible. Adjusted pops
slightly to line up better with CAM consensus. Other than that,
just minor tweaks to the forecast today and the rest of the
forecast looks to be on track.

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight:

All is quiet over the ArkLaMiss this morning. A weak low has cutoff
over the Mid-Mississippi Valley and will serve as the focal point
for today's storm initialization. With storms already in progress
in northern AR/TN this morning, this small complex will continue
to shift southward through the day. The CAM guidance shows this
system moving into northern MS later this morning and as it moves
further away from the weak but better forcing, it will have a
tendency to become disorganized. While there will be plenty of
CAPE available in our area and good lapse rates to maintain the
storms, model sounding profiles in north MS show weak shear. With
shear so weak, the atmosphere will be hard pressed to maintain
multi-cellular storms, but if this system can manage to stay
somewhat organized moving into our CWA and maintain a decent cold
pool then there will be the potential for some wet microbursts.
Strong to damaging wind gusts and small hail will be the main
threats. Again, expect high temps today to be right around normal
- low 90s - for this time of year.

Today's convection will dissipate with the sunset this evening and
allow for the atmosphere to reset overnight. Similar to this
morning, another small complex looks to develop early Friday
morning where the cutoff low will continue meandering over the
MidSouth. This could bring some early morning rain to our northern
counties on Friday. /10/

Friday through next Wednesday night:

Overall, a typical summer weather pattern is expected with a
general weakness in the large scale subtropical ridge over the
Lower MS Valley region. For Friday, the previously mentioned
disturbance digging southward around the eastern periphery of the
Southern Plains high center will help to enhance diurnal
convective precipitation over the ArkLaMiss region. Colder air
aloft (H500 T ~ -10C) will continue to support steep lapse rates
favorable for more intense storms, however, timing of convective
development will make for a complex/low confidence forecast as
activity will likely develop early in the day, particularly over
the Delta region, and this could disrupt potential during the more
favorable afternoon hours depending on outflow influence.

As we go into the weekend, an upper trough will shift westward
and this should help to increase southerly low level flow while
moderating temperatures aloft resulting in weaker lapse rates and
slightly less severe microburst potential. It should be noted that
the southerly flow could promote earlier convective development
and fairly good coverage of showers/storms. Going into early next
week, there are indications in the bulk of global model guidance
that a ridge center will increase its influence over the forecast
area resulting in slightly greater heat stress, so this will be a
trend to monitor. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       92  70  90  70 /  39  36  46  24
Meridian      94  70  92  70 /  40  37  37  23
Vicksburg     90  71  90  71 /  34  31  36  22
Hattiesburg   93  69  92  70 /  43  42  48  32
Natchez       91  70  90  70 /  25  32  48  35
Greenville    91  72  89  72 /  59  30  46  23
Greenwood     90  71  89  71 /  60  28  48  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

JAN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
404 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>059-061>066-
280915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-
Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-
Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-
Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-
Clarke-Jefferson-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Jones-
404 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

Today, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

LAZ024-026-MSZ060-072>074-280915-
Catahoula-Concordia-Adams-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
404 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

10

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1132 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     TORNADO          5 N START               32.55N 91.87W
06/24/2019                   MOREHOUSE          LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED SNAPPED TREES
            COINCIDENT WITH A TDS ON RADAR.

&&

TW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON MS
Issued by National Weather Service Nashville TN
1252 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

MSZ025>028-271830-
Carroll MS-Grenada MS-Leflore MS-Montgomery MS-
1252 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CARROLL...NORTHERN
LEFLORE...GRENADA AND NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM
CDT...

At 1252 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Drew to near Gore Springs. Movement was
southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Greenwood, Grenada, Winona, Leflore, Jefferson, Duck Hill, North
Carrollton, Gore Springs, Teoc, Malmaison, Minter City, Avalon,
Sweatman, Lodi, Holcomb, Money, Sunnyside, Elliott, Bew Springs and
Misterton.

LAT...LON 3387 8951 3346 8951 3346 9021 3374 9045
      3381 9045 3381 9019 3379 9017 3377 9018
      3375 9030 3373 9031 3370 9030 3369 9028
      3374 9024 3372 9022 3372 9014 3381 9013
      3381 8998 3382 8998 3382 8993 3387 8992
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 318DEG 28KT 3384 9045 3383 8964

Hawblitzel

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