Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
431 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through tomorrow night...

A few showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm or two will be
possible this evening and into tonight mainly in the south where
higher moisture values will continue to exist. Lows tonight will
fall into the upper 60's for most of the region.

The focus of the short term forecast will be on the evolving
severe weather threat for tomorrow. A shortwave will approach the
ArkLaTex tomorrow. Storms will initially develop along a surface
boundary associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough.
Slight W/NW flow in the upper levels will help push the storms
E/SE towards our region where the atmosphere will be favorable for
further storm development due to ample moisture low level lapse
rates of 7-8.5 C/km and SBCAPE values of above 3,000 j/kg.
However, there is enough uncertainty in the timing, location, and
coverage of storms to only advertise a marginal risk of severe
storms in the HWO. The best chance of storm coverage will exist in
the western and northwestern portions of the region where storms
have a better chance of reaching before we lose daytime heating.
Straightline winds and hail will be the main threats with any
storms that succeed in making it into our region.

Thursday through Monday...

The rest of the forecast period will consist of a typical summer
pattern as a weakness increases in the large scale subtropical
ridge over the southeast CONUS. Weak shortwave trough energy
rotating around the Southern Plains high center will help to
enhance diurnal convective precipitation over the ArkLaMiss region
in the very moist airmass. For Thursday, deep layer flow will be
seasonably weak suggesting pulse type storms, but convection
could be a little more organized Friday into the weekend given
slightly greater flow and influence from the trough. Throughout
the long term, it looks like we will have fairly steep lapse
rates/abundant instability supportive of wet microbursts...
something to monitor as move more into the near term with these
periods. Otherwise, temperatures/humidity will be near normal
values with the threat for significant heat stress limited at
worst. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:

A cluster of thunderstorms continue to approach the region from
the west this afternoon. Cloudiness will continue to increase
ahead of these storms in the upper and lower levels. MVFR CIGs
have already developed at KPIB and can be expected to spread into
KHBG soon. There is greater confidence of thunderstorms impacting
our southernmost sites this afternoon and evening. There was
enough confidence to add -TSRA groups at both sites and VCTS at
some other locations. VFR conditions will return tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  91  72  92 /  44  32  22  35
Meridian      70  92  71  94 /  27  30  21  41
Vicksburg     70  92  72  91 /  49  29  19  29
Hattiesburg   70  93  71  94 /  36  23  17  34
Natchez       71  92  71  91 /  50  29  10  23
Greenville    70  92  72  91 /  41  33  17  40
Greenwood     70  91  72  91 /  25  38  24  42

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
406 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>042-047-053-
059>061-262115-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Warren-Claiborne-Jefferson-Adams-
Franklin MS-
406 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

MSZ043>046-048>052-054>058-062>066-072>074-262115-
Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-
Lauderdale-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
406 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, south central Mississippi,
and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Isolated severe storms, capable of producing damaging winds, will
continue to be possible this afternoon through early this
evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

3

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
456 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

MSZ043-049-055-252300-
Rankin MS-Madison MS-Simpson MS-
456 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT RANKIN...SIMPSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 456 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from Flora to near Whites to near Oma.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Whites around 500 PM CDT.
  Richland around 505 PM CDT.
  Florence and Annandale around 510 PM CDT.
  Star and Monterey around 515 PM CDT.
  Madison and Gluckstadt around 520 PM CDT.
  Canton, Shivers and Piney Woods around 525 PM CDT.
  Cato around 540 PM CDT.
  Johns and Goshen Springs around 545 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include D'Lo, Braxton and
Puckett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 9011 3180 9015 3183 9013 3184 9016
      3186 9013 3189 9014 3203 9025 3209 9023
      3215 9025 3220 9018 3225 9021 3240 9007
      3240 9024 3249 9024 3249 9031 3252 9031
      3265 8998 3222 8976 3180 8967 3175 9012
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 263DEG 24KT 3254 9031 3214 9022 3172 9022

DB

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